Since 2011, Republicans have held two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature.
The Kansas Legislature passes consequential laws that affect transgender rights, abortion rights, the state budget, healthcare, and education.
The Republican supermajority allows Republican legislators to override a Democratic governor’s veto with only Republican votes.
This grants Republican lawmakers the ability to pass laws without Democratic support.
Laura Kelly, a Democrat, has served as Kansas governor since 2019.
The Republican two-thirds supermajority also allows Republicans to advance constitutional amendments to a public vote without the need to secure any Democratic support in the legislature.
In this article, we’ll explore the races that will determine whether Republicans will continue to hold their supermajorities in the legislature after this year’s election.
Historical Trends
The Kansas Legislature has two chambers, a House of Representatives and a Senate.
Elections will be held this year for all of the seats in the Kansas Legislature.
There are 40 members of the Kansas Senate.
Members of the Kansas Senate are elected every four years.
There are
125 members of the Kansas House.
Members of the Kansas House are elected every two years.
Elected members take office when the legislature convenes in January after the November election.
I created line graphs showing the balance of power in the Kansas Legislature, based on election results available on the Kansas Secretary of State’s website.
I created these graphs using Flourish, a website that allows users to create compelling visual aids.
No third party or independent candidates won seats in the Kansas Legislature in any election from 2004 to the present.
All members of the legislature during this period were elected as either Republicans or Democrats.
I didn’t examine results for elections prior to 2004.
Republicans have consistently held a supermajority in the Kansas Senate since 2005.
Republicans have held a supermajority in the Kansas House since 2011.
Republicans didn’t hold a supermajority in the Kansas House from 2005-2010.
But it would only take a few Democratic victories to prevent Republicans from continuing to hold their supermajorities in the legislature.
Democrats need to win two more races in the Kansas House, and three more races in the Kansas Senate, to end the Republican supermajorities in those chambers.
Redistricting
Looking at past election results can inform our understanding of which legislative races will be the most competitive.
In the Kansas Senate, however, races will be held in legislative districts that were created after the most recent Kansas Senate elections in 2020.
But races for the Kansas House will take place in the same districts that were in place for the 2022 elections.
So it will be easier to predict which Kansas House elections will likely be competitive.
Kansas House
In 2022, 13 Kansas House races were decided in the general election by less than 500 votes.
Republicans won eight of these races, and Democrats won five.
Each of these districts will have a contested general election between a Republican and a Democrat in November.
Seven of these districts are located entirely in Johnson County. One district is split between Johnson and Douglas counties.
Each of the following counties contains a competitive district: Leavenworth, Reno, Wyandotte, and Riley.
One competitive district is split between Sedgwick and Butler counties.
Closest races
Two Kansas House races were decided by fewer than 100 votes in 2022.
Both of these races were for districts in Johnson County.
In 2022, Carl Turner (R) beat Ace Allen (D) by 60 votes, or 0.6%, in District 28.
This year’s election will be a rematch between the same candidates.
In 2022, Allison Hougland (D) beat Matt Bingesser (R) by 78 votes, or 1.4%, in District 15.
Lauren Bohi (R) is challenging Hougland (D) for the seat this year.
What You Can Do
Make sure to pay attention to your down ballot races.
If you would like to support Democratic candidates running to break the Republican supermajority in the Kansas Legislature, you can donate to a fundraising form I created for ActBlue.
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