Midterm Math: Senate Edition

 

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The race for Senate control is highly competitive.

In this article, I will discuss the 10 most competitive Senate elections, which will determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate next year.

Before I begin, a few disclaimers.

Categorizing the competitiveness of elections is an inherently subjective task.

You should consider the accuracy of my previous election predictions when deciding how reliable you believe my political forecasting to be.

I will briefly explain how I have chosen my designations for each of the races in this article.

But I am a proud Democrat, and you should assume my forecasts will likely overly favor Democrats.

That certainly was the case for my predictions in 2024.

But, Trump’s constant abuses of power and mismanagement of the economy have created a challenging political environment for Republicans, and a favorable one for Democrats.

So, my predictions may be more accurate this year than they were in 2024.

My race designations are based on how close I believe the final margins in these elections will be, rather than exclusively based on where polling indicates these races currently are.

That being said, there is plenty of time for subsequent developments to change the course of the elections I will discuss today.

Without further ado, here are my designations for the most competitive 2026 Senate Races.

I will discuss these races, beginning with the least competitive, and ending with the most competitive.

I consider races for the Senate to be competitive if I believe the final margin will be less than 10%.

That is true for all 10 races I will discuss today.

Kansas

Kansas is on the outer edge of the competitive Senate Map.

Methodist Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) is running against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R).

I discussed Hamilton, and his strong platform, in a previous article. 

 

Marshall is a conservative Republican who strongly supports President Trump.

Marshall supported Trump’s effort to steal the 2020 Presidential election, and he voted against certifying the electoral college results from Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Marshall voted to acquit Donald Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.

In 2023, Marshall filed legislation to prohibit LGBT Pride Flags from federal buildings after President Joe Biden displayed the Progress Pride flag outside the White House.

Last year, Marshall voted for the Big Ugly Bill, which cut taxes for the rich, cut Medicaid funding for the poor, and increased funding for ICE, the federal agency that conducts immigration enforcement.

Despite the favorable national political environment for Democrats, Kansas is a deeply Republican state.

It has been 62 years since Kansas has voted for a Democrat for President, and 94 years since Kansas has elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson (D) against Barry Goldwater (R).

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, when the state reelected George McGill.

Since 2004, the Republican candidate has won every Senate election in Kansas by more than 10%.

Recent Presidential and Senate elections in Kansas have not been close.

In 2024, Trump won Kansas by 16%.

In 2020, Trump won Kansas by 15%.

In 2016, Trump won Kansas by 21%.

Roger Marshall (R) was first elected to the Senate in 2020, when he ran against State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D).

Marshall won by 11.4%.

In 2022, Sen. Jerry Moran (R) ran for reelection against Mark Holland (D), a Methodist pastor and former mayor of Kansas City, Kansas.

Moran won by 23%.

I believe this year presents a more challenging political environment for Republicans than 2020, when Roger Marshall was first elected to the Senate.

This year, I predict Marshall will win by 9%.

That’s closer than a US Senate election has been in Kansas for more than 20 years, but it will be a modest consolation prize for Kansas Democrats who desperately want to defeat Roger Marshall. 

I consider the Kansas Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

Nebraska

I believe the Senate race in Nebraska is more competitive than the one in Kansas, but not by much.

In Nebraska, incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) is running for reelection against independent candidate Dan Osborn.

Senate elections in Nebraska generally aren’t competitive, but Osborn was able to prove himself a formidable challenger in a previous Nebraska Senate election.

In 2024, Dan Osborn ran as an independent against incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who was running for reelection.

Fischer won by only 6.7%.

I discussed Deb Fischer’s voting record in the Senate in an article I published before the election.

I discussed the outcome of the election in an article I wrote about the results of the 2024 Senate Races.

I predict this year’s election will result in a similar margin, with Ricketts winning by about 7%.

I consider the Nebraska Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

The strength of Osborn’s overperformance in 2024 can be seen by comparing his narrow loss in 2024 to the outcome of other recent Nebraska elections.

In 2024, Pete Ricketts won a special election to complete the term of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, who resigned to become the president of the University of Florida.

In that election, Ricketts (R) ran against University Professor Preston Love Jr. (D).

Ricketts won by 25%.

In 2024, Trump won Nebraska by 20%.

In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19%.

In 2016, Trump won Nebraska by 25%.

It has been 20 years since Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate, and 62 years since Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President.

The last time Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 2006, when the state reelected Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

The last time Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President was in 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson.

North Carolina

Next, let’s examine the races I consider to be Likely Democratic.

In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is running against Michael Whatley (R), who previously served as the chair of the Republican National Committee, and served as the chair of the North Carolina Republican Party.

Cooper currently leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 8.0%.

Roy Cooper was elected North Carolina Governor in 2016, and he was reelected in 2020.

Republicans have narrowly won North Carolina in recent presidential and senate elections.

In 2024, Trump won North Carolina by 3.2%.

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by 1.3%.

In 2016, Trump won North Carolina by 3.7%.

In 2022, Congressman Ted Budd (R) ran against Cheri Beasley (D), a former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court.

Budd won by 3.2%.

In 2020, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) ran for reelection against former State Senator Cal Cunningham (D).

Tillis won by 1.7%.

These recent wins by Republicans in North Carolina lead me to believe the race will be more slightly more competitive than polling currently suggests.

I predict Roy Cooper will win by about 5%.

I consider the North Carolina Senate Race to be Likely Democrat.

It has been 18 years since North Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate, and 18 years since North Carolina voted for a Democrat for President.

North Carolina last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, when the state elected Kay Hagan.

North Carolina last voted for a Democrat for President in 2008, when the state voted for Barack Obama.

Georgia

In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is running for reelection against Congressman Mike Collins (R).

Ossoff currently leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 7.5%.

Recent presidential and senate elections in Georgia have been highly competitive.

In 2024, Trump won Georgia by 2.2%.

In 2020, Biden won Georgia by 0.2%.

In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5.1%.

In 2020, Journalist Jon Ossoff ran against incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R).

On Jan. 5, 2021, Ossoff won the runoff election by 1.2%.

In 2020, Baptist Pastor Raphael Warnock ran against appointed incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in a special election.

On Jan. 5, 2021, Warnock won the runoff election by 2.1%.

In 2022, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) ran for reelection against former football player Herschel Walker (R).

Warnock won the runoff election by 2.8%.

I believe the final margin in this year’s Georgia Senate Race will be more competitive than current polling suggests.

I predict Ossoff will win by about 5%.

I consider the Georgia Senate Race to be Likely Democrat.

It has been 10 years since Georgia elected a Republican to the Senate.

Georgia last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2016, when the state reelected Johnny Isakson.

Iowa

In Iowa, Congresswoman Ashley Hinson (R) is running against Josh Turek (D), a State Representative and Wheelchair Basketball Paralympian.

I wrote about Josh Turek’s fascinating life story in a previous article.

Polling indicates the race is highly competitive.

Hinson (R) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.4%.

Republicans have won recent presidential and senate elections in Iowa by larger margins.

In 2024, Trump won Iowa by 13.2%.

In 2020, Trump won Iowa by 8.2%.

In 2016, Trump won Iowa by 9.4%.

But it hasn’t been that long since Iowa voted for a Democrat for president. 

In 2012, Obama won Iowa by 5.8%. 

In 2008, Obama won Iowa by 9.5%. 

In 2022, incumbent Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) ran for reelection against Veteran Michael Franken (D).

Grassley won by 12.2%.

In 2020, incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R) ran for reelection against Theresa Greenfield (D).

Ernst won by 6.6%.

It has been 14 years since Iowa voted for a Democrat for President, and 18 years since Iowa elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Iowa most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, when the state reelected Tom Harkin.

Iowa most recently voted for a Democrat for President in 2012, when the state voted for Barack Obama.

I predict Hinson (R) will win by a larger margin than current polling suggests.

I believe she will win by about 3%.

Therefore, I consider the Iowa Senate Race to be Lean Republican.

Michigan

In Michigan, former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D) is running against former Congressman Mike Rogers (R).

Polling shows the Michigan Senate Race is incredibly close.

El-Sayed leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 0.7%.

Michigan has been a competitive swing state in recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Trump won Michigan by 1.4%.

In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 2.8%.

In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 0.2%.

Recent Michigan Senate elections have also been highly competitive.

In 2024, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) ran against former Congressman Mike Rogers (R).

Slotkin won by 0.3%.

In 2020, incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) ran for reelection against Veteran John James (R).

Peters won by 1.7%.

It has been 32 years since Michigan elected a Republican to the Senate.

The last time Michigan elected a Republican to the Senate was in 1994, when the state elected Spencer Abraham.

While I believe the Michigan Senate Race will be close, I believe El-Sayed will expand his lead as we move farther away from the contentious and competitive Democratic Primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.

I predict El-Sayed will win the general election by about 2%.

I consider the Michigan Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Maine

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R) is running for reelection against former Maine State Senate President Troy Jackson (D).

Jackson (D) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 2.3%.

Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have each won recent statewide federal elections in Maine.

Maine has voted against Trump in each of the three most recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Harris won Maine by 6.9%.

In 2020, Biden won Maine by 9.1%.

In 2016, Clinton won Maine by 3.0%.

It has been 38 years since Maine voted for a Republican for President.

Maine hasn’t voted for a Republican for President since 1988, when the state voted for George H.W. Bush.

In 2024, Independent Sen. Angus King ran for reelection against Demi Kouzounas (R) and David Costello (D).

King won by 17.4%.

In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) ran for reelection against Sara Gideon (D), the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.

Collins won the election by 8.6%.

Susan Collins in a strong candidate, and in a better year for Republicans, she could win reelection.

Collins was reelected in 2020, in the same election when Maine voted for Biden.

But Collins is facing incredibly strong headwinds this year.

Maine has voted against Donald Trump in each of the past three presidential elections.

And the national political environment is devastating for Republicans.

Trump’s narcissistic obsessions contrast with his complete disregard for the cost-of-living concerns of voters, which his policies, particularly his War with Iran and his tariffs, have only made worse.

It is very hard for a Republican candidate, running for either chamber of Congress, to overcome these political realities, in a state or district where Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all have a real chance to win.

I predict Troy Jackson (D) will win the Maine Senate Race by about 2%, as current polling suggests.

Therefore, I consider the Maine Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Alaska

In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is running for reelection against former Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D).

Peltola (D) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 2.0%.

Trump has won Alaska in the three most recent presidential elections by more than 10%.

In 2024, Trump won Alaska by 13.1%.

In 2020, Trump won Alaska by 10.1%.

In 2016, Trump won Alaska by 14.7%.

It has been 62 years since Alaska voted for a Democrat for President.

The last time Alaska voted for a Democrat for President was in 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson.

Alaska became a state in 1959, and it has participated in 17 presidential elections.

Alaska voted for the Republican candidate in 16 of those elections, and only voted for the Democratic candidate once, in 1964. 

Republicans have won recent Senate elections in Alaska.

In 2022, Alaska used ranked-choice voting in its Senate election.

The final round of ranked-choice voting was between two Republicans.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Kelly Tshibaka (R), former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, made it to the final round.

Murkowski was reelected by 7.4%.

In 2020, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) ran for reelection against Doctor Al Gross, an independent who received the nomination of the Democratic Party.

Sullivan won by 12.7%.

It has been 18 years since Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate.

The most recent time Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 2008, when the state elected Mark Begich.

Both Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) have won statewide elections in Alaska.

Sullivan was elected to the Senate in 2014, and he was reelected in 2020.

Alaska has one congressional district that covers the entire state.

Therefore, Peltola was elected to the US House in a statewide election.

Mary Peltola was first elected to the US House in a special election in 2022, and she was reelected in the following regularly-scheduled election in 2022.

Peltola lost reelection to the US House in 2024.

I predict Peltola will win the Alaska Senate Race by about 2%, as polling suggests.

Therefore, I consider the Alaska Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Ohio

In Ohio, appointed incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted to fill the vacancy created when Sen. JD Vance was elected to be Trump’s Vice President in 2024.

Although Jon Husted hasn’t yet won an election to the US Senate, he has won statewide elections in Ohio.

In 2010, Jon Husted was elected Ohio Secretary of State. He was reelected in 2014.

In 2018, Jon Husted was elected as Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor alongside Mike DeWine, who was elected to be Ohio’s Governor.

Husted was reelected as Lieutenant Governor in 2022, alongside Gov. Mike DeWine.

Ohio first elected Sherrod Brown (D) to the Senate in 2006.

Brown was reelected in 2012 and 2018, before losing reelection in 2024. 

Sherrod Brown narrowly leads recent polling, which effectively shows an evenly divided race.

Brown leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 0.6%.

Ohio voted for Trump in the three most recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Trump won Ohio by 11.2%.

In 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8.0%.

In 2016, Trump won Ohio by 8.1%.

Nevertheless, Ohio voted for Obama twice.

In 2012, Obama won Ohio by 3.0%.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4.6%.

Ohio has elected both Republicans and Democrats to the Senate, but Republicans have fared better in recent elections.

Ohio first elected Sherrod Brown (D) to the Senate in 2006.

Brown was reelected in 2012 and 2018.

In 2024, Sherrod Brown (D) ran for reelection against Businessman Bernie Moreno (R).

Moreno (R) won by 3.6%.

Before the 2024 Ohio Senate Race, I published an article where I showed how Sherrod Brown voted on key issues in the Senate, and discussed some of Bernie Moreno’s political liabilities.

After the 2024 election, I discussed the results of the 2024 Senate Races, including the one in Ohio.

In 2022, JD Vance (R) ran against Congressman Tim Ryan (D).

Vance (R) won by 6.1%.

Ohio most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2018, when the state reelected Sherrod Brown (D).

I predict Sherrod Brown will win the Ohio Senate Race, but that the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0.

I consider the Ohio Senate Race to be Tilt Democrat.

Although, I could easily see it going either way.

Texas

In Texas, State Representative James Talarico (D) is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

Talarico leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.9%.

Republicans have won recent Presidential and Senate elections in Texas, although they often win by less than 10%.

Texas voted for Trump in the three most recent presidential elections. 

In 2024, Trump won Texas by 13.7%.

In 2020, Trump won Texas by 5.6%.

In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9.0%.

In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) ran for reelection against Congressman Colin Allred (D).

Cruz won by 8.5%.

In 2020, Sen. John Cornyn (R) ran for reelection against Veteran MJ Hegar (D).

Cornyn won by 9.6%.

It has been 50 years since Texas voted for a Democrat for President.

Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1976, when the state voted for Jimmy Carter.

It has been 38 years since Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, when the state reelected Lloyd Bentsen.

James Talarico is an amazing candidate, Ken Paxton is a horrible candidate, and the national political environment is devastating for Republicans.

Texas is such a Republican state that it would take all three of these conditions to be met for a Democrat to have a real chance to win a Senate election in the state.

But this year, all three conditions have been met.

I predict James Talarico will win the Texas Senate Race, but that the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0.

I consider the Texas Senate Race to be Tilt Democrat.

Although, I could easily see it going either way.

Overall Prediction

So where does this leave the overall race for Senate control?

There are currently 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the US Senate.

The Democratic total includes Bernie Sanders and Angus King, two Independents who caucus with the Democrats.

I don’t believe Republicans will flip any seats currently held by Democrats.

I believe Democrats will flip 5 Senate Seats: North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas.

Therefore, I predict Democrats, and allied Independents, will enter the next congress holding 52 seats, and Republicans will hold 48 seats.

If that happens, Democrats will win Senate control.

But I consider two states, Ohio and Texas, to be Tilt Democrat.

If Republicans win these highly competitive races, and my other predictions are correct, the Senate would be tied with each party holding 50 seats.

If that happens, Vice President JD Vance would break the tie in favor of Republicans.

I currently believe Democrats hold a narrow advantage in the race for Senate Control, but the odds remain incredibly close.

If you would like to help Democrats flip control of the Senate, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund.

I’m currently raising money for 5 Senate candidates: James Talarico in Texas, Josh Turek in Iowa, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Adam Hamilton in Kansas.

Tables

 

Before we go, let’s examine a few tables that compare statistics I discussed in this article.

Here is a table showing the Real Clear Politics polling averages for these Senate Races as of Aug. 27, 2026. 

Real Clear Politics has not created polling averages for the Senate races in Nebraska and Kansas.

Here is a table showing how the 10 states discussed in this article voted in the 2024 Presidential Election.

Maine was the only state that voted for Harris.

The other nine all voted for Trump.

Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina voted for Trump by less than 5%.

Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Kansas each voted for Trump by more than 10%.

Nebraska voted for Trump by more than 20%.

This table shows how these states voted in Senate elections 2020. 

This table does not include Ohio, because this year’s Senate election in Ohio is a special election, and Ohio did not have a Senate election in 2020.

In 2020, Democrats won the regularly-scheduled Senate elections in Michigan and Georgia by less than 2%.

Republicans won the 2020 Senate elections in North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, and Texas by less than 10%.

Republicans won the 2020 Senate elections in Kansas and Alaska by more than 10%.

The Republican candidate won the 2020 Senate election in Nebraska by almost 40%.

Now, let’s look compare the most recent time these states voted for a Republican for president.

Nine states voted for Trump in 2024.

Only Maine didn’t vote for Trump in 2024.

Maine last voted for a Republican for President in 1988.

Next, let’s compare the most recent time these states voted for a Democrat for President.

Kansas, Nebraska, and Alaska haven’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964.

Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1976.

Now, let’s compare the most recent time these states elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Maine does not appear on this table.

In 2024, Maine reelected Angus King, an independent aligned with Democrats.

Kansas most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.

Texas most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988.

Finally, let’s compare the most recent time these states elected a Republican Senator.

Eight of these states have elected at least one Republican to the Senate since 2020.

Georgia hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2016.

Michigan hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994.

Writing this article took a lot of work.

You can support my coverage of the 2026 elections on Patreon. 

Competitive Races for the Kansas Legislature

 

Today, we’ll take a tour of the races that will make or break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature.

But first, let’s examine how Republicans have used their Supermajority in recent years.

Republican Priorities

Since 2011, Republicans have held two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature.

The Republican supermajority allows Republican legislators to override a governor’s veto with only Republican votes.

This grants Republicans the ability to pass laws without support from any Democrats.

Earlier this year, Republicans in the Kansas Legislature overrode a veto from Gov. Laura Kelly (D), to pass a draconian anti-trans bill into law.

All of the members of the Kansas Legislature who voted to overturn Kelly's veto were Republicans.

The law prevents transgender people from obtaining identity documents that reflect their gender identity, and makes it illegal for transgender people to use certain restrooms and locker rooms in government buildings.

I wrote about the anti-trans law in an article I published last month.

The Republican two-thirds supermajority also allows Republicans to advance constitutional amendments to a public vote, without the need to secure support from any Democrats in the Legislature.

In Jan. 2021, both chambers of the Kansas Legislature advanced a state constitutional amendment that would give the Legislature the legal authority to enact a restrictive abortion ban.

All members of the Legislature who voted for the proposed amendment were Republicans.

In Aug. 2022, Kansas voters decisively rejected the proposed amendment by 18%.

I wrote about Republican efforts to limit abortion rights in Kansas, which continued even after voters rejected the anti-abortion amendment.

In March 2025, both chambers of the Kansas Legislature advanced a proposed constitutional amendment that would replace the current merit-based process for selecting Kansas Supreme Court Justices with direct elections.

Supporters of the proposal hoped electing State Supreme Court Justices would eventually lead the Kansas Supreme Court to overturn a key decision that protects abortion rights.

Supporters also hoped electing Supreme Court Justices would prevent the Kansas Supreme Court from requiring the Legislature to spend more money on K-12 education than it otherwise would.

All members of the Kansas Legislature who voted for the amendment to elect Kansas Supreme Court Justices were Republicans.

Earlier this month, Kansas voters decisively rejected the proposed amendment by 23%.

Last month, I wrote an in-depth editorial urging Kansans to vote against the amendment.

Only 5 Seats

Members of the Kansas House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the State Legislature, are up for reelection in 2026.

Members of the Kansas Senate, the upper chamber of the State Legislature, won’t be up for reelection until 2028.

Democrats only need to flip 5 seats in the Kansas House to break the Republican Supermajority in the chamber.

If Democrats break the supermajority, Republicans won’t be able to override a governor’s veto, or advance constitutional amendments to a public vote, without receiving support from Democratic lawmakers.

Today, we’ll explore the elections that will make or break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas House.

First, we’ll examine the most competitive races.

Then, we’ll discuss the reach seats that could potentially flip under the right conditions.

Finally, we’ll discuss the uncontested races in districts that could have been competitive if Democrats or Republicans had run a candidate.

Most Competitive Races

10 Kansas House districts were decided by less than 6% in both 2024 and 2022.

Those 10 districts were also decided by less than 700 votes in both 2024 and 2022.

You can click the tables and maps in this article to view larger versions of them.  

 

This table lists the most competitive races for the Kansas House.

The table lists the percent margin and vote margin in the district for each of the two most recent elections for the Kansas House. 

Candidates highlighted in soft yellow are the winners of contested primaries.

The names of elected incumbents are followed by “(i)”.

This table, and the ones that follow, are organized by the percent margin in 2024, with the closest races listed first.

6 of the 10 most competitive districts are located in Johnson County.

In 2025, Johnson County was the largest county in Kansas, by population.

21.4% of Kansas residents lived in Johnson County in 2025, according to data from the US Census. 

That means more than 1 in 5 Kansans lived in Johnson County, last year.

Johnson County is located in northeast Kansas, along the Kansas-Missouri border.

4 of the 10 most competitive districts are located outside Johnson County.

One is split between Sedgwick and Butler counties, and contains part of Wichita.

One is located in Reno County, and contains part of Hutchinson.

One is located in Riley County, and contains part of Manhattan.

One is located in Leavenworth County, and contains part of Leavenworth.

Republicans flipped three seats in the Kansas House in 2024.

They flipped districts 15, 14, and 102.

This year, the elections in districts 15 and 102 will be rematches between the candidates who ran against each other in 2024.

In these districts, former Democratic incumbents are running for their old seats, against the Republicans who defeated them two years ago. 

Allison Hougland and Jason Probst are running for the seats they lost in 2024. 

Now let’s take a closer look at the 6 most competitive races, which appear in the top half of the table above.

All 6 of these districts were decided by less than 4% in both 2024 and 2022.

All 6 districts were decided by less than 500 votes in both 2024 and 2022.

One of these seats is held by a Democrat.

The other 5 seats are held by Republicans.

If Democrats win all 6 of these most competitive races, they will break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature.

That means Democrats would only need a uniform margin swing of 3.3% in these races, compared to the 2024 margins, to break the Republican Supermajority in the Legislature.

5 of the 6 most competitive Kansas House districts are located in Johnson County.

One is split between Sedgwick and Butler counties.

Reach Seats

 

Next, let’s examine the less competitive seats that could potentially be in play.

In the table above, margins less than 10% are highlighted in lighter shades of blue and pink, and margins greater than 10% are highlighted in darker shades of blue and pink.

Each of these 8 districts were decided by less than 10% in either 2024 or 2022.

Dist. 78, in Johnson County, was decided by less than 10% in both 2024 and 2022.

Districts 56 and 96 were decided by less than 10% in 2024.

Districts 8, 121, 33, 117, and 17 were decided by less than 10% in 2022.

4 of these 8 less competitive districts are located entirely in Johnson County.

One is split between Johnson and Douglas counties.

The remaining 3 districts are located in Shawnee, Sedgwick, and Wyandotte counties.

Uncontested Races

There are 5 uncontested races in districts that were decided by less than 10% in either 2024 or 2022.

These are potentially competitive seats that either Republicans or Democrats left on the table by not running a candidate.

Republicans left more potentially competitive seats on the table this year.

4 Democratic incumbents are running unopposed in potentially competitive districts, which means Republicans left 4 pickup opportunities on the table.

One Republican incumbent is running unopposed in a potentially competitive district, which means Democrats left one pickup opportunity on the table.

As a Democrat who desperately wants to break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature, I am glad no Republicans chose to run in four potentially competitive districts. 

I hope they leave even more potentially winnable seats on the table in future elections.

But I understand why Republicans might be less likely to run for office this year. 

President Trump’s constant abuses of power and mismanagement of the economy create a challenging political environment for Republicans, and a favorable political environment for Democrats.

Dist. 48, in Johnson County, was decided by less than 6% in both 2024 and 2022.

Districts 53 and 95 were decided by less than 8% in 2024.

District 87 was decided by less than 9% in 2024.

District 16 was decided by less than 9% in 2022.

Two uncontested races, in potentially competitive seats, are for districts in Johnson County.

Two are for districts in Sedgwick County. 

One is for a district in Shawnee County. 

Overview

Now, let’s examine these districts collectively.

A total of 23 Kansas House districts were decided by less than 10% in either 2024 or 2022.

There are 125 seats in the Kansas House.

Therefore, 18.4% of Kansas House districts are potentially competitive. 

This map shows the counties with potentially competitive Kansas House districts.

A full county map of Kansas, with county names, appears later in this article.

12 of these potentially competitive districts are located entirely in Johnson County.

One is split between Johnson and Douglas counties.

Three of these potentially competitive districts are located in Sedgwick County, which contains Wichita.

One district is split between Sedgwick and Butler counties.

Two of these potentially competitive districts are located in Shawnee County, which contains Topeka.

The remaining 4 districts are located in Reno, Riley, Leavenworth, and Wyandotte counties.

Reno County contains Hutchinson.

Riley County contains Manhattan.

Leavenworth County contains Leavenworth.

Wyandotte County contains Kansas City, Kansas. 

A county map of Kansas.

 

 

I discussed six Democrats running in competitive races for the Kansas Legislature in an article I published in June.  

If you would like to help break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature, you can donate to Sunflower Democrats. 

If you would like to help Democrats win competitive US Senate and Governor’s Races, nationwide, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund. 

I have been tracking competitive elections for the Kansas Legislature for several years.

This article is the culmination of a lot of hard work, across many spreadsheets.  

If you found this article useful, consider supporting my work on Patreon. 

 

 

My 2026 Kansas Democratic Primary Ballot

 

I voted early in person on Monday morning, Aug. 3.

I voted for the candidates I endorsed in editorials on Meticulous Musings.

Therefore, my preliminary endorsements are the same as my final endorsements in those races.

Here is how I voted in the races and questions on my ballot.

US Senator: Christy Davis

US Representative: Colin McRoberts

Kansas First Congressional District

Governor / Lt. Gov.: Cindy Holscher / KC Ohaebosim

Secretary of State: Jennifer Day

Attorney General: Chris Mann (Uncontested Primary)

Insurance Commissioner: Dinah Sykes (Uncontested Primary)

State Representative: Brenda Bandy (Uncontested Primary)

Dist. 67

State Board of Education: Jennifer Lloyd (Uncontested Primary)

Dist. 1

Riley County Commissioner: Rob Voelker (Uncontested Primary)

Dist. 1

Constitutional Amendment: NO

Electing Kansas Supreme Court Justices

I wrote similar articles covering how I voted in the 2024 and 2022 general elections.

The 2026 Kansas Primary will be held tomorrow, Tuesday, Aug. 4.

Polls will be open from 7 AM to 7 PM in Riley County. 

 

Sample ballots are available from VoterView, a service provided by the Kansas Secretary of State's office. 

All registered voters, including unaffiliated voters, are eligible to vote on the state constitutional amendment.

 

I urge you to vote on election day, if you haven’t already. 

 

 

A Contested Primary in a Hopeless Race

Two Attorneys from Lawrence are running in the Democratic Primary in the Kansas First Congressional District, and neither of them have the slightest chance of winning in the general election.

Both Colin McRoberts and Lauren Reinhold are great candidates, with strong platforms, who have introduced themselves to my Indivisible chapter in Manhattan, Kansas. 

The table below lists the Democrats and Republicans running in each of the four Kansas Congressional Districts. 

 

 

The Kansas First Congressional District is easily the least competitive congressional district in the state.

In each of the 11 most recent elections in the Kansas First, the Republican candidate has won by more than 35%.

The Kansas First Congressional District, also known as the Big First, is gigantic. 

It stretches from the Kansas-Colorado border to Lawrence, in Eastern Kansas.

The Big First is shown in green on the map below.

Attribution:

By Nebraskan fellow - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=121276590 

It’s impossible for a Democrat to win the Deep Red Big First.

Democrats have run compelling, capable, and hard-working candidates in the Big First in previous elections, and each of them have been crushed in the general election.

Choosing which Democrat to run in the Big First is truly the equivalent of arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

There are competitive congressional races elsewhere, and if you want Democrats to win control of the US House, your efforts should be focused there.

Nevertheless, I live in the Big First, and the Democrats who are running in the district are interesting candidates. 

Just don’t get your hopes up.

And if you’re going to volunteer or donate to Kansas Democrats, focus your attention on races they could actually win.

Both McRoberts and Reinhold oppose cuts to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), a federal program that provided foreign aid to countries in need.

John Oliver discussed Trump's cuts to USAID on his program LastWeekTonight.

 

  

 

Colin McRoberts

Colin McRoberts has worked as a lawyer, and a negotiator.

"I worked on some of the most difficult and complex deals, helping Fortune 500 companies, unions, diplomatic teams, and government bodies make better deals under the toughest conditions – exactly what Congress and Kansas need now,” McRoberts wrote on his campaign website.

McRoberts teaches negotiation and business law at the University of Kansas (KU).

In March 2025, McRoberts attended a town hall in Oakley, Kansas, where US Senator Roger Marshall left early after receiving critical comments and tough questions from Kansans.

Oakley is located in Northwest Kansas.

WIBW also covered Marshall’s early departure from the town hall.

Colin McRoberts is a talented public speaker.

This can be seen in the passionate and energetic speech he delivered on March 28 at the No Kings 3 rally, in Manhattan, Kansas, which was hosted by my Indivisible chapter.

McRoberts supports restoring funding for USAID, and restoring scientific funding for the National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation.

He supports reversing cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

McRoberts supports amending federal law to automatically cancel presidential tariffs, after one year, unless Congress votes to extend them.

He supports holding the federal government accountable for “incompetence, indecency, and illegality.”

McRoberts supports amending federal law to allow victims sue federal officials who violate their rights.

“We’ve seen what happens when we trust the executive branch to police itself,” he wrote on his campaign website. “When an ICE agent killed Renee Good in Minneapolis, the government immediately declared there would not even be an investigation.”

“An amended Section 1983 would let victims (or their surviving families) sue in civil court, so the government would not be able to shut down investigations and obstruct justice,” he added.

McRoberts discussed his candidacy with the Kansas Reflector.

Lauren Reinhold

As a lawyer, Lauren Reinhold represented low-income Kansans fighting for their housing, consumer, and family rights, according to her campaign website.

Reinhold also advised families, employers, and immigrants on immigration law.

Reinhold worked for the federal government.

She served in the Social Security Administration, where she focused on workforce modernization and employee support.

She also served as an investigator for the National Labor Relations Board.

Lauren Reinhold witnessed firsthand the chaos Trump unleashed at the Social Security Administration (SSA), including through funding cuts initiated by DOGE, an initiative led by Elon Musk. 

“Committed to ensuring government functions well, Lauren planned to continue a long career in federal government administration,” she wrote on her campaign website.

“Unfortunately, her plans changed when DOGE cut SSA programs, slashed people-centered initiatives across the government, and eliminated thousands of jobs within her agency." 

In response, Reinhold resigned from the Social Security Administration, and chose to run for Congress.

“I’m fighting for Kansas, not for big corporations or special interests,” Reinhold wrote on her campaign website. “If anyone in Washington wants to push policies that hurt our farmers, our hospitals, our workers, or our towns, they’ll have to go through me first.” 

Reinhold opposes cuts to SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, and USAID. 

She said cuts to these programs have hurt farmers and families alike.

Reinhold supports rebuilding rural healthcare. 

She believes over-payed CEOs, and their corporations, should pay higher taxes.

Reinhold supports immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the US, according to her campaign website.

“Drawing on her experience as an immigration attorney, Lauren will advocate for long-overdue common-sense immigration reform that addresses our need for a stable agricultural workforce and family unity while securing the border and making sure our deportation policies are fair and humane,” Reinhold wrote.

“In Congress, Lauren will work for legislation that provides a fair path to citizenship for people who have been contributing to our society and our communities," Reinhold continued. 

"She will bring to the table her government and legal background to demand a fair and efficient immigration court process staffed by qualified judges, focusing on policies that treat immigrant families and communities with dignity and respect.”

Lauren Reinhold introduced herself to Indivisible Manhattan on April 25, during the Little Apple Pride Celebration, where we hosted a booth for our organization.

You can learn more about Lauren Reinhold and Colin McRoberts from the Kansas Reflector.

My Endorsement

Democrats have no chance of winning the Kansas First Congressional District.

Democrats would have their best performance in the Big First in more than 20 years, if they managed to narrow the Republican margin of victory to under 35%.

Both Colin McRoberts and Lauren Reinhold are quality candidates with strong platforms.

Both candidates have introduced themselves to my Indivisible chapter in Manhattan, Kansas.

McRoberts uses slightly sharper rhetoric to criticize the Trump administration.

McRoberts is also an amazing orator who delivers great speeches.

I plan to vote for Colin McRoberts, and I encourage others to do so as well.

It would be entertaining to watch McRoberts campaign in the general election, even though he has no chance to actually win.

My endorsements are preliminary, and subject to change, based on subsequent developments.

But I don’t believe my endorsement in this race will likely change.

I'm glad that both McRoberts and Reinhold are running for Congress.

Democrats should try to run candidates in every race, even in races they don’t have a chance to win.

I would love to have either McRoberts or Reinhold represent me in Congress, rather than Tracey Mann (R), but if history is any guide, that’s definitely not going to happen.

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