Roger Marshall: An Embarrassment to the State of Kansas

 

Senator Roger Marshall (R) is running for reelection against Methodist Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) in the Kansas Senate Race. 

 

 

Despite all odds, Kansas has a competitive Senate Race this year. 

Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932, which was 94 years ago. 

 

The Republican candidate has won each of the 7 most recent Senate elections in Kansas by more than 10%.  

 

 

Nonetheless, Democrat Adam Hamilton (D) leads the Meticulous Musings polling average by 1.5%. 

 

 

 

Adam Hamilton (D) has a strong platform.

He supports expanding Medicare drug price negotiation, reversing cuts to Medicaid, restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies, and protecting rural hospitals.

He opposes tariffs, wants to ban Wall Street investors from buying single-family homes, expand Medicare to cover vision and dental, and require data centers to pay their fair share of electricity costs.

 

 

Roger Marshall is a scandal-plagued Conservative Republican, who is an embarrassment to the State of Kansas.  

 

Marshall was first elected to the US House in 2016 in the Kansas First Congressional District.

He was reelected in 2018. 

 

 

Roger Marshall (R) was first elected to the US Senate in 2020, when he ran against Barbara Bollier (D).

Marshall won by 11.4%. 

 

 Marshall is running for reelection to the Senate this year. 

 

I have voted against Roger Marshall every time he's been on my ballot.

I lived and voted in Missouri in 2016.
I voted against Roger Marshall in 2018, when he ran for reelection to the US House.

I voted against Roger Marshall in 2020, when he was first elected to the US Senate.
I voted against Roger Marshall this year, when he ran for reelection to the US Senate.

 

 

I covered Roger Marshall during his time in the US House, when I was a reporter for the Salina Journal in 2018 and 2019.

At the time, I was an objective reporter, and I did my best to cover Marshall fairly.

Marshall always treated me with respect, as a member of the local news media.

But even back then, I strongly disagreed with Marshall’s politics.

 

I recorded videos of Roger Marshall when I was a reporter at the Salina Journal.

A playlist of those videos are available on my YouTube channel.

 

 

Defending Trump in Congress

 

In October 2019, Roger Marshall was among a group of House Republicans who stormed and disrupted a closed-door hearing that was part of the investigation that led to President Trump’s first impeachment.

“This whole thing is a sham,” Marshall said. “The people of Kansas are sick and tired of these impeachment hearings. We have impeachment fatigue.”

 

President Trump’s first impeachment was for withholding military aid to Ukraine to pressure the country to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden, which would benefit Trump in the 2020 presidential campaign. 

 

In December 2019, Roger Marshall voted against impeaching Trump for both Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress, during Trump’s first impeachment. 

 

 

As a Senator, Marshall supported Trump’s effort to steal the 2020 Presidential election, and he voted against certifying the electoral college results from Arizona and Pennsylvania. 

 

In February 2021, Marshall voted to acquit President Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial, during Trump’s second impeachment, for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021. 

 

 

 

 

Economic Policy 

 

During the Biden Administration, Roger Marshall voted against the American Rescue Plan, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and the Inflation Reduction Act. 

 

In March 2021, Roger Marshall (R) voted against the American Rescue Plan, which extended unemployment benefits, provided emergency rental assistance, expanded food stamp benefits, expanded the child tax credit, and provided funding to cities and states to replace tax revenue lost due to the pandemic. 

 

In August 2021, Roger Marshall (R) voted against the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which provided funding for roads, bridges, public transit, broadband internet, and infrastructure projects. 

 

In August 2022, Marshall voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, which allowed Medicare to negotiate prices for some drugs, and authorized tax credits for renewable energy.  

 

 

 Reproductive Rights 

 

In May 2022, Marshall voted against the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have overturned state abortion bans by establishing a right to abortion under federal law. 

In September 2024, Marshall voted against the Right to IVF Act, which would have created a federal right to access fertility treatments and overturned state laws that interfere with the provision of fertility treatments. 

 

 

LGBT Rights

 

Congress passed, and President Biden signed, the Respect for Marriage Act in 2022.

Currently, the right to same sex marriage is protected nationwide under the Supreme Court’s ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges.

Liberals feared the US Supreme Court might overturn its decisions protecting gay marriage, after the court overturned Roe v. Wade.

The Respect for Marriage Act was passed due to these concerns. 

 

The Respect for Marriage Act requires states to recognize same-sex marriages conducted in other states, and requires the federal government to recognize the legitimacy of same-sex marriages conducted by states that allow them. 

 

Roger Marshall voted against the Respect for Marriage Act, which shows that as late as November 2022, Roger Marshall still opposed the right of same-sex couples to marry. 

 

 

That shouldn’t come as a surprise, because Roger Marshall is bigoted against LGBT people. 

 

In June 2023, President Joe Biden displayed a progress pride flag at the White House.

Senator Roger Marshall responded on twitter.

“This is a disgrace,” Marshall wrote. “Not only is it in breach of US Flag Code, but it’s a glaring example of this White Houses’ incompetence and insistence on putting their social agenda ahead of patriotism.”

 

 

 

It is bigoted to react to a display of an LGBT pride flag by calling it a disgrace.

There are LGBT Kansans, and I am one of them.

LGBT Kansans deserve better than to be represented in the US Senate by a bigot like Roger Marshall.

 

Politifact determined Roger Marshall’s claim that the flag display violated the US Flag Code was false.

 

Marshall subsequently filed legislation to prohibit LGBT Pride Flags from being displayed at federal buildings.

 

 

 

 Trump's Second Term

 

Roger Marshall authorized some of the worst aspects of the Trump Administration, during Trump's second term.  

In January 2025, Roger Marshall voted to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, who was and remains wholly unqualified and unfit for the role. 

In February 2025, Roger Marshall voted to confirm Vaccine Conspiracy Theorist RFK Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services. 

 

 

In July 2025, Marshall voted for the Big Ugly Bill, which cut taxes for the rich, cut Medicaid funding for the poor, and increased funding for ICE, the federal law enforcement agency that attacks immigrants. 

In March 2026, Marshall voted against a War Powers Resolution that attempted to end the Iran War. 

 

Roger Marshall voted the wrong way on all 15 key votes in the Senate and the House, that were discussed in this article. 

 

 

 Scandals

 

Politically speaking, September was a tough month for Roger Marshall.

 

Marshall worked as a doctor prior to his political career.

On Sept. 8, the New York Times reported Marshall filed lawsuits against more than 700 patients with outstanding bills.

 

 

On Sept. 12, during a debate at the Kansas State Fair, hecklers responded to Marshall by chanting, “You Don’t Live Here.”

That’s a pretty devastating thing to say about your own Senator.

 

 

On Sept. 25, the Kansas City Star reported that while Roger Marshall claims to live in a modest cabin in Kansas, he owns a much larger and more expensive home in Florida. 

 

 

 

An Idiotic Trump Supporter 

 

Roger Marshall has always been a stalwart supporter of President Trump.

During my time at the Salina Journal in 2018 and 2019, Marshall displayed a portrait of President Trump in Marshall’s Salina office. 

 

Recently, an interviewer on Bloomberg TV asked Roger Marshall if anyone was advising President Trump to move towards free trade and away from tariffs. 

 

Marshall replied that Kansans will stick with Trump until the bitter end.  

“I don’t hear that voice right now. I hear the president actually doubling down on where he’s at, and the interesting thing is my farmers are still supporting. 

“It’s dire times back home, bankruptcies are up, suicides are up, but nevertheless, we have hope in this president that he can take us to victory here.”

 

 

 

 Conclusion

I strongly and enthusiastically endorse Adam Hamilton (D) for US Senate in Kansas. 

 

 

Roger Marshall is an embarrassment to the State of Kansas.

Roger Marshall should be voted out of office, and he should never hold a position in government, elected or appointed, ever again.

 

Marshall should resign and retire from public political life.

But Kansas will likely be stuck with him as their Senator for the foreseeable future.

 

VoteHub has created a model that predicts the outcome of every Senate, House, and Governor election in 2026. 

VoteHub predicts Roger Marshall will win the Kansas Senate Race by 1.2%. 

 

 

 

My Judicial Endorsements

State Judges are running to retain their positions in Kansas this year. 

State Supreme Court Justices, Court of Appeals Judges, and District Court Judges will all be on the ballot. 

Here are my endorsements for those races.  

 

 

Kansas Supreme Court 

Two Kansas Supreme Court Justices are running in retention elections this year.

Both Eric Rosen and Larkin Walsh were appointed by Democratic Governors. 

 

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) appointed Eric Rosen to the Kansas Supreme Court in 2005. 

 Here is more information about Kansas Chief Justice Eric Rosen. 

 

Gov. Laura Kelly (D) appointed Larkin Walsh to the Kansas Supreme Court in 2025.  

Here is more information about Kansas Supreme Court Justice Larkin Walsh. 

 

 

I voted to retain both Eric Rosen and Larkin Walsh on the Kansas Supreme Court, and I recommend that others do as well. 

You can click the tables in this article to view larger versions of them.  

 

 

 

Kansas Court of Appeals 

Five Judges on the Kansas Court of Appeals are running in retention elections this year.

Four Judges were appointed by Gov. Laura Kelly (D).
One Judge was appointed by Gov. Sam Brownback (R). 

 

Lori Ann Bolton Fleming was appointed by Gov. Laura Kelly (D) to the Kansas Court of Appeals in 2025.

Lesley Ann Isherwood was appointed by Gov. Laura Kelly (D) to the Kansas Court of Appeals in 2021. 

Amy Fellows Cline was appointed by Gov. Laura Kelly (D) to the Kansas Court of Appeals. Cline began serving in 2021. 

Jacy Hurst was appointed by Gov. Laura Kelly (D) to the Kansas Court of Appeals in 2021. 

 

Kim Schroeder was appointed by Gov. Sam Brownback (R) to the Kansas Court of Appeals in 2013. 

 

 

In 2019, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled the Kansas Constitution implicitly protects abortion rights.

The decision is the state level equivalent to Roe v. Wade.

The state case is known as Hodes & Nauser v. Schmidt.

 

In June 2022, the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the federal right to abortion.

The State Supreme Court decision in Hodes & Nauser v. Schmidt became the only remaining barrier between Kansas Republican politicians and their goal of overturning abortion rights in the state.

 

Republican politicians in Kansas have been dedicated to overturning the decision, including through two failed attempts to amend the Kansas Constitution, itself. 

 

Before the Kansas Supreme Court considered Hodes & Nauser v. Schmidt, the case made its way through lower state courts.

A District Court ruled the Kansas Constitution protects abortion rights.

 

The Kansas Court of Appeals was evenly divided.

Seven judges ruled the Kansas Constitution protects abortion rights.
Seven judges ruled the Kansas Constitution doesn’t protect abortion rights.

The even split meant that the District Court decision remained in effect. 

 

The Kansas Supreme Court ultimately found abortion rights were protected by the Kansas Constitution. 

 

Kim Schroeder was one of the Kansas Court of Appeals Judges who ruled the Kansas Constitution doesn’t protect abortion rights. 

 

Kansas Republican politicians remain as dedicated as ever to ending abortion rights in the state.

If Kansas voters have the opportunity to protect abortion rights on their ballot, I believe they should do so.

I support abortion rights, and therefore, I oppose retaining Kim Schroeder on the Kansas Court of Appeals. 

 

I support retaining all of the other Kansas Court of Appeals Judges who are running for retention this year. 

 

 

 

 

 District Court Judges

 

Two District Court Judges from the 21st Judicial District, which covers Riley and Clay counties, are running to retain their positions. 

Both Judges are from Manhattan, Kansas. 

 

Grant Bannister was appointed by Gov. Sam Brownback (R) in 2016. 

I reviewed articles from the Manhattan Mercury that mention Bannister, and I didn’t find any controversies or concerns.

I support retaining Judge Bannister. 

 

John Bosch was appointed by Gov. Sam Brownback (R) in 2012.  

A 2013 sentencing decision, made by Judge Bosch, in a drunk driving manslaughter case, was reversed by the Kansas Court of Appeals.

I find the ruling by the Court of Appeals to be compelling, and I believe Judge Bosch’s initial sentence was too lenient.

I voted against retaining Judge Bosch.

I encourage anyone looking to learn more about the case to read the Kansas Court of Appeals ruling.

 

I recommend retaining Grant Bannister and against retaining John Bosch.  

 

 

Vote No on the Redundant Constitutional Amendment

 

In November, Kansas voters will decide whether to approve a proposed state constitutional amendment.  

According to the explanatory statement on the ballot, the amendment, "would clarify that only a person who is a citizen of the United States is eligible to vote in this state." 

There is no significant or widespread problem concerning non-citizens attempting to vote in US elections.

Only US citizens are allowed to vote in Kansas. This fact is already clear from the text of the Kansas Constitution that the proposed amendment would modify. 

 

 

Republicans have long peddled false claims about widespread voter fraud, as well as false claims about illegal immigrants committing voter fraud and illegally swaying the results of elections. 

The proposed amendment exists as a result of this false narrative that arises from the lies propagated by the right-wing echo chamber. 

 

As a practical matter, it doesn't appear that the proposed amendment would, on its own, actually do anything that the current language in the Kansas Constitution doesn't already do.  

The proposed amendment is a solution in search of a problem.

 

 

If the amendment passes, Republicans who wish to pass legislation to enact proof-of-citizenship requirements, which would make it harder to vote, could cite voters' approval of the amendment to argue that the public supports their efforts.  

Although, I'm sure that Republicans will attempt to pass these measures regardless, and the approval of the proposed amendment doesn't appear to make any legal changes that would make their efforts more likely to succeed. 

 

 

Here is the passage in the Kansas Constitution that the proposed amendment would modify.

This text shows how the passage currently reads.  

It is how the text will continue to read, if voters reject the proposed amendment. 

 

This document shows the changes that the proposed amendment would make to the Kansas Constitution.

This information can also be seen on sample ballots available to Kansas voters. 

 

KU Professor Amii Castle wrote an editorial for the Kansas Reflector opposing the proposed amendment. 

 

 

The proposed amendment is redundant and unnecessary.

While it doesn't appear to make any meaningful legal changes on its own, it could be used rhetorically to support future legislation that would make it harder for US citizens to vote.

 

I voted against the proposed state constitutional amendment, and I encourage other Kansas voters to do the same.  

 

I support the city sales tax for road work and oppose the redundant state constitutional amendment. 

 

 

 

Vote Yes for Better Roads

 

In November, voters will decide whether to approve a city-wide sales tax to fund road work in Manhattan, Kansas. 

 

The 0.5% sales tax would take affect in April 2027, and would last for 10 years.

The proposed 0.5% sales tax would replace a 0.2% sales tax, which is about to expire. 

 

If approved, the new tax would increase the overall sales tax from 9.15% to 9.45%, for Manhattan transactions conducted in Riley County.

The new tax would increase the overall sales tax from 9.45% to 9.75% for Manhattan transactions conducted in Pottawatomie County. 

 

 

City officials say the proposed tax would allow the city to improve the quality of Manhattan's streets. 

The Manhattan Chamber of Commerce supports the sales tax measure.

Yard signs supporting the proposal can be seen around town. 

You can view the ballot language, along with additional information about the proposal, on the City Government website for Manhattan, Kansas. 

 

I haven't seen or heard arguments from anyone opposing the road maintenance sales tax proposal.  

The cost of living crisis is particularly acute for many people right now, and voters might not want to approve a new tax when so many essentials of life are so expensive.  

Nevertheless, a 0.3% increase in the sales tax is a modest one, and the money would go to good use.  

 

 

Neither approving nor rejecting the proposed sales tax would have any impact on the speed of road work in Manhattan, which is an issue that desperately needs to be addressed.  

Construction crews regularly tear up half of a major street in Manhattan, before leaving the site dormant, without making any major progress on the project, for months at a time.  

Contracts for Road Work should contain project deadlines, with rewards for finishing early, and penalties for finishing late.  

 

We need a city commission that actually focuses on ensuring road maintenance projects don't drag on forever.

We need major roads that aren't operating at half capacity for months at a time. 

 

 

I plan to vote in favor of the modest sales tax increase to fund road work in the city.

But I will continue to be frustrated by the glacial pace of road work, which is a problem that we really need to fix.

 

 

I support the city sales tax for road work and oppose the redundant state constitutional amendment, which I will discuss in a future editorial. 

 

 

My 2026 Kansas General Election Endorsements

I realize that everyone who might be interested in my endorsements has already voted early in the 2026 General Election.

I voted early in person on Tuesday, Oct. 27.

Here are my endorsements for partisan elections. 

You can click on the tables in this article to view larger versions of them.  

I endorsed candidates in two districts for the Kansas House, the lower chamber of the Kansas Legislature. 

I endorse Sydney Carlin in Dist. 66, and Brenda Bandy in Dist. 67.

I live in Dist 67, so I voted for Brenda Bandy.

I voted for all of my endorsements listed in this article, except for Sydney Carlin, because I don’t live in her district.

Several Judges are running to retain their positions this year.

Here are my endorsements for Kansas Supreme Court Justices.

Here are my endorsements for Kansas Court of Appeals Judges.

Here are my endorsements for District Court Judges.

Finally, here are my endorsements on the ballot questions.

I have written extensively about each of these elections, except for Sydney Carlin’s race, on social media.

I am going to try to turn each of those threads into articles for Meticulous Musings before election day.

We’ll see how many I can publish before then.

Wish me luck. 

 

Kansas and Nebraska Senate Polling

Americans are deeply upset with Trump and Republicans in Congress, especially over their mismanagement of the economy.

Recently, there has been substantial interest in Senate races in deep red states, as analysts wonder if Democrats or Independent candidates have a chance to win Senate races that would normally be out of reach.

On social media, I have shared tables of polling averages for various competitive Senate Races.

I have used polling averages from Real Clear Politics, but the website hasn’t created polling averages for Senate Races in Kansas or Nebraska.

So, I decided to create polling averages for these elections, myself.

Polling averages are more valuable than individual polls, because an individual poll can be an outlier, whereas a polling average is more likely to give you an accurate view of where polling shows a race to be.

The New York Times collects polls for various races, but it does not create averages from them.

The polls in this article have been collected by the New York Times, and I have crunched the numbers to create polling averages for Senate Races in Kansas and Nebraska.

Kansas

In Kansas, Methodist Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) is running against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R).

I discussed Hamilton, and his strong platform, in an article on the Kansas Democratic Senate Primary, which he won. 

I discussed Marshall, a conservative Republican who strongly supports President Trump, in an article that examined competitive Senate Races. 

The New York Times has collected four polls for the Kansas Senate Race, which were conducted in August or September. 

All four polls were conducted after the Kansas Primary, which was held on Aug. 4.

Hamilton leads in two of these polls, and Marshall leads in the other two.

Marshall leads the polling average by less than 1%.

Specifically, he leads by 0.75%.

Rounded to the nearest percent, Marshall leads by 1%.

The polling shows a highly competitive Senate Race in Kansas.

Historically, Kansas has been a deeply Republican state in federal elections.

It has been 62 years since Kansas voted for a Democrat for President, and 94 years since Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson (D) against Barry Goldwater (R).

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, when the state reelected George McGill.

Since 2004, the Republican candidate has won every Senate election in Kansas by more than 10%.

Recent Presidential elections in Kansas have not been close.

In 2024, Trump won Kansas by 16%.

In 2020, Trump won Kansas by 15%.

In 2016, Trump won Kansas by 21%.

In the most recent poll, conducted by Emerson College, 8% of likely voters were undecided.

Undecided voters will likely determine the outcome of the Kansas Senate Race.

If they break in favor of Marshall, as you would expect based on how Kansas has historically voted in Senate elections, Marshall could win.

If they break for Hamilton, Hamilton could win.

The national political environment for Republicans is bleak.  

Trump's War against Iran rages on, which has caused gas prices to rise.

In Kansas, Unleaded Gasoline is over $4 a gallon, and Diesel is over $6 a gallon.

Nevertheless, Kansas is a deep red state.

I predict Marshall will win by about 7%.

But a lot can change between now and election day.

I still consider the Kansas Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

This prediction will be upsetting to Democrats who want to win this race.

But it’s better outcome for Democrats than I predicted last month, when I believed Marshall would win by 9%.

We have a real chance to defeat Roger Marshall, and win a Senate Race in Kansas, and we need to take it. 

You can support Adam Hamilton through the Democratic Victory Fund, which raises money for Democrats running in important races, nationwide. 

Alternatively, you can support Hamilton through Sunflower Democrats, which raises money for Kansas Democrats running in important races. 

Nebraska

In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn is running against incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

The New York Times has collected three polls for the Nebraska Senate Race, which were conducted in August and September.

In the polling average, the race is exactly tied, with each candidate receiving 47%.

Senate elections in Nebraska generally aren’t competitive, but Osborn was able to prove himself a formidable challenger in a previous Nebraska Senate election.

In 2024, Dan Osborn ran as an independent against incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who was running for reelection.

Fischer won by only 6.7%. 

In 2024, Pete Ricketts was also on the ballot in a special election for Nebraska’s other Senate Seat.

Ricketts won the special election to complete the term of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, who resigned to become the president of the University of Florida.

In that election, Ricketts (R) ran against University Professor Preston Love Jr. (D).

Ricketts won by 25%.

Trump easily won each of the last three presidential elections in Nebraska.

In 2024, Trump won Nebraska by 20%.

In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19%.

In 2016, Trump won Nebraska by 25%.

It has been 20 years since Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate, and 62 years since Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President.

The last time Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 2006, when the state reelected Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

The last time Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President was in 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson.

Earlier this month, the Survey USA poll indicated 7% of likely voters were undecided.

These undecided voters will likely determine the outcome of the Nebraska Senate Race.

The national environment for Republicans is devastating this year, and Trump is relentlessly directing the nation’s political attention to his obsessive focus on his personal vanity projects, like his determination to add his name to the Kennedy Center.

I predict Ricketts will win the Nebraska Senate Race by about 6%.

Therefore, I still consider the Nebraska Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

Nevertheless, I believe Osborn’s chances of winning are improving.

Last month, I predicted Ricketts would win by about 7%. 

I have already met my fundraising goal for Dan Osborn. 

But you can support four other Senate candidates through the Democratic Victory Fund.

Those candidates are Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas, and Troy Jackson in Maine. 

You can also support my coverage of the 2026 elections on Patreon. 

 

Midterm Math: Senate Edition

 

If you appreciate this article, you can support my coverage of the 2026 elections on Patreon.

The race for Senate control is highly competitive.

In this article, I will discuss the 10 most competitive Senate elections, which will determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate next year.

Before I begin, a few disclaimers.

Categorizing the competitiveness of elections is an inherently subjective task.

You should consider the accuracy of my previous election predictions when deciding how reliable you believe my political forecasting to be.

I will briefly explain how I have chosen my designations for each of the races in this article.

But I am a proud Democrat, and you should assume my forecasts will likely overly favor Democrats.

That certainly was the case for my predictions in 2024.

But, Trump’s constant abuses of power and mismanagement of the economy have created a challenging political environment for Republicans, and a favorable one for Democrats.

So, my predictions may be more accurate this year than they were in 2024.

My race designations are based on how close I believe the final margins in these elections will be, rather than exclusively based on where polling indicates these races currently are.

That being said, there is plenty of time for subsequent developments to change the course of the elections I will discuss today.

Without further ado, here are my designations for the most competitive 2026 Senate Races.

I will discuss these races, beginning with the least competitive, and ending with the most competitive.

I consider races for the Senate to be competitive if I believe the final margin will be less than 10%.

That is true for all 10 races I will discuss today.

Kansas

Kansas is on the outer edge of the competitive Senate Map.

Methodist Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) is running against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R).

I discussed Hamilton, and his strong platform, in a previous article. 

 

Marshall is a conservative Republican who strongly supports President Trump.

Marshall supported Trump’s effort to steal the 2020 Presidential election, and he voted against certifying the electoral college results from Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Marshall voted to acquit Donald Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.

In 2023, Marshall filed legislation to prohibit LGBT Pride Flags from federal buildings after President Joe Biden displayed the Progress Pride flag outside the White House.

Last year, Marshall voted for the Big Ugly Bill, which cut taxes for the rich, cut Medicaid funding for the poor, and increased funding for ICE, the federal agency that conducts immigration enforcement.

Despite the favorable national political environment for Democrats, Kansas is a deeply Republican state.

It has been 62 years since Kansas has voted for a Democrat for President, and 94 years since Kansas has elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson (D) against Barry Goldwater (R).

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, when the state reelected George McGill.

Since 2004, the Republican candidate has won every Senate election in Kansas by more than 10%.

Recent Presidential and Senate elections in Kansas have not been close.

In 2024, Trump won Kansas by 16%.

In 2020, Trump won Kansas by 15%.

In 2016, Trump won Kansas by 21%.

Roger Marshall (R) was first elected to the Senate in 2020, when he ran against State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D).

Marshall won by 11.4%.

In 2022, Sen. Jerry Moran (R) ran for reelection against Mark Holland (D), a Methodist pastor and former mayor of Kansas City, Kansas.

Moran won by 23%.

I believe this year presents a more challenging political environment for Republicans than 2020, when Roger Marshall was first elected to the Senate.

This year, I predict Marshall will win by 9%.

That’s closer than a US Senate election has been in Kansas for more than 20 years, but it will be a modest consolation prize for Kansas Democrats who desperately want to defeat Roger Marshall. 

I consider the Kansas Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

Nebraska

I believe the Senate race in Nebraska is more competitive than the one in Kansas, but not by much.

In Nebraska, incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) is running for reelection against independent candidate Dan Osborn.

Senate elections in Nebraska generally aren’t competitive, but Osborn was able to prove himself a formidable challenger in a previous Nebraska Senate election.

In 2024, Dan Osborn ran as an independent against incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who was running for reelection.

Fischer won by only 6.7%.

I discussed Deb Fischer’s voting record in the Senate in an article I published before the election.

I discussed the outcome of the election in an article I wrote about the results of the 2024 Senate Races.

I predict this year’s election will result in a similar margin, with Ricketts winning by about 7%.

I consider the Nebraska Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

The strength of Osborn’s overperformance in 2024 can be seen by comparing his narrow loss in 2024 to the outcome of other recent Nebraska elections.

In 2024, Pete Ricketts won a special election to complete the term of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, who resigned to become the president of the University of Florida.

In that election, Ricketts (R) ran against University Professor Preston Love Jr. (D).

Ricketts won by 25%.

In 2024, Trump won Nebraska by 20%.

In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19%.

In 2016, Trump won Nebraska by 25%.

It has been 20 years since Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate, and 62 years since Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President.

The last time Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 2006, when the state reelected Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

The last time Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President was in 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson.

North Carolina

Next, let’s examine the races I consider to be Likely Democratic.

In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is running against Michael Whatley (R), who previously served as the chair of the Republican National Committee, and served as the chair of the North Carolina Republican Party.

Cooper currently leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 8.0%.

Roy Cooper was elected North Carolina Governor in 2016, and he was reelected in 2020.

Republicans have narrowly won North Carolina in recent presidential and senate elections.

In 2024, Trump won North Carolina by 3.2%.

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by 1.3%.

In 2016, Trump won North Carolina by 3.7%.

In 2022, Congressman Ted Budd (R) ran against Cheri Beasley (D), a former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court.

Budd won by 3.2%.

In 2020, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) ran for reelection against former State Senator Cal Cunningham (D).

Tillis won by 1.7%.

These recent wins by Republicans in North Carolina lead me to believe the race will be more slightly more competitive than polling currently suggests.

I predict Roy Cooper will win by about 5%.

I consider the North Carolina Senate Race to be Likely Democrat.

It has been 18 years since North Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate, and 18 years since North Carolina voted for a Democrat for President.

North Carolina last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, when the state elected Kay Hagan.

North Carolina last voted for a Democrat for President in 2008, when the state voted for Barack Obama.

Georgia

In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is running for reelection against Congressman Mike Collins (R).

Ossoff currently leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 7.5%.

Recent presidential and senate elections in Georgia have been highly competitive.

In 2024, Trump won Georgia by 2.2%.

In 2020, Biden won Georgia by 0.2%.

In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5.1%.

In 2020, Journalist Jon Ossoff ran against incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R).

On Jan. 5, 2021, Ossoff won the runoff election by 1.2%.

In 2020, Baptist Pastor Raphael Warnock ran against appointed incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in a special election.

On Jan. 5, 2021, Warnock won the runoff election by 2.1%.

In 2022, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) ran for reelection against former football player Herschel Walker (R).

Warnock won the runoff election by 2.8%.

I believe the final margin in this year’s Georgia Senate Race will be more competitive than current polling suggests.

I predict Ossoff will win by about 5%.

I consider the Georgia Senate Race to be Likely Democrat.

It has been 10 years since Georgia elected a Republican to the Senate.

Georgia last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2016, when the state reelected Johnny Isakson.

Iowa

In Iowa, Congresswoman Ashley Hinson (R) is running against Josh Turek (D), a State Representative and Wheelchair Basketball Paralympian.

I wrote about Josh Turek’s fascinating life story in a previous article.

Polling indicates the race is highly competitive.

Hinson (R) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.4%.

Republicans have won recent presidential and senate elections in Iowa by larger margins.

In 2024, Trump won Iowa by 13.2%.

In 2020, Trump won Iowa by 8.2%.

In 2016, Trump won Iowa by 9.4%.

But it hasn’t been that long since Iowa voted for a Democrat for president. 

In 2012, Obama won Iowa by 5.8%. 

In 2008, Obama won Iowa by 9.5%. 

In 2022, incumbent Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) ran for reelection against Veteran Michael Franken (D).

Grassley won by 12.2%.

In 2020, incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R) ran for reelection against Theresa Greenfield (D).

Ernst won by 6.6%.

It has been 14 years since Iowa voted for a Democrat for President, and 18 years since Iowa elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Iowa most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, when the state reelected Tom Harkin.

Iowa most recently voted for a Democrat for President in 2012, when the state voted for Barack Obama.

I predict Hinson (R) will win by a larger margin than current polling suggests.

I believe she will win by about 3%.

Therefore, I consider the Iowa Senate Race to be Lean Republican.

Michigan

In Michigan, former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D) is running against former Congressman Mike Rogers (R).

Polling shows the Michigan Senate Race is incredibly close.

El-Sayed leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 0.7%.

Michigan has been a competitive swing state in recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Trump won Michigan by 1.4%.

In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 2.8%.

In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 0.2%.

Recent Michigan Senate elections have also been highly competitive.

In 2024, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) ran against former Congressman Mike Rogers (R).

Slotkin won by 0.3%.

In 2020, incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) ran for reelection against Veteran John James (R).

Peters won by 1.7%.

It has been 32 years since Michigan elected a Republican to the Senate.

The last time Michigan elected a Republican to the Senate was in 1994, when the state elected Spencer Abraham.

While I believe the Michigan Senate Race will be close, I believe El-Sayed will expand his lead as we move farther away from the contentious and competitive Democratic Primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.

I predict El-Sayed will win the general election by about 2%.

I consider the Michigan Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Maine

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R) is running for reelection against former Maine State Senate President Troy Jackson (D).

Jackson (D) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 2.3%.

Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have each won recent statewide federal elections in Maine.

Maine has voted against Trump in each of the three most recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Harris won Maine by 6.9%.

In 2020, Biden won Maine by 9.1%.

In 2016, Clinton won Maine by 3.0%.

It has been 38 years since Maine voted for a Republican for President.

Maine hasn’t voted for a Republican for President since 1988, when the state voted for George H.W. Bush.

In 2024, Independent Sen. Angus King ran for reelection against Demi Kouzounas (R) and David Costello (D).

King won by 17.4%.

In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) ran for reelection against Sara Gideon (D), the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.

Collins won the election by 8.6%.

Susan Collins in a strong candidate, and in a better year for Republicans, she could win reelection.

Collins was reelected in 2020, in the same election when Maine voted for Biden.

But Collins is facing incredibly strong headwinds this year.

Maine has voted against Donald Trump in each of the past three presidential elections.

And the national political environment is devastating for Republicans.

Trump’s narcissistic obsessions contrast with his complete disregard for the cost-of-living concerns of voters, which his policies, particularly his War with Iran and his tariffs, have only made worse.

It is very hard for a Republican candidate, running for either chamber of Congress, to overcome these political realities, in a state or district where Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all have a real chance to win.

I predict Troy Jackson (D) will win the Maine Senate Race by about 2%, as current polling suggests.

Therefore, I consider the Maine Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Alaska

In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is running for reelection against former Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D).

Peltola (D) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 2.0%.

Trump has won Alaska in the three most recent presidential elections by more than 10%.

In 2024, Trump won Alaska by 13.1%.

In 2020, Trump won Alaska by 10.1%.

In 2016, Trump won Alaska by 14.7%.

It has been 62 years since Alaska voted for a Democrat for President.

The last time Alaska voted for a Democrat for President was in 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson.

Alaska became a state in 1959, and it has participated in 17 presidential elections.

Alaska voted for the Republican candidate in 16 of those elections, and only voted for the Democratic candidate once, in 1964. 

Republicans have won recent Senate elections in Alaska.

In 2022, Alaska used ranked-choice voting in its Senate election.

The final round of ranked-choice voting was between two Republicans.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Kelly Tshibaka (R), former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, made it to the final round.

Murkowski was reelected by 7.4%.

In 2020, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) ran for reelection against Doctor Al Gross, an independent who received the nomination of the Democratic Party.

Sullivan won by 12.7%.

It has been 18 years since Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate.

The most recent time Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 2008, when the state elected Mark Begich.

Both Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) have won statewide elections in Alaska.

Sullivan was elected to the Senate in 2014, and he was reelected in 2020.

Alaska has one congressional district that covers the entire state.

Therefore, Peltola was elected to the US House in a statewide election.

Mary Peltola was first elected to the US House in a special election in 2022, and she was reelected in the following regularly-scheduled election in 2022.

Peltola lost reelection to the US House in 2024.

I predict Peltola will win the Alaska Senate Race by about 2%, as polling suggests.

Therefore, I consider the Alaska Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Ohio

In Ohio, appointed incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted to fill the vacancy created when Sen. JD Vance was elected to be Trump’s Vice President in 2024.

Although Jon Husted hasn’t yet won an election to the US Senate, he has won statewide elections in Ohio.

In 2010, Jon Husted was elected Ohio Secretary of State. He was reelected in 2014.

In 2018, Jon Husted was elected as Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor alongside Mike DeWine, who was elected to be Ohio’s Governor.

Husted was reelected as Lieutenant Governor in 2022, alongside Gov. Mike DeWine.

Ohio first elected Sherrod Brown (D) to the Senate in 2006.

Brown was reelected in 2012 and 2018, before losing reelection in 2024. 

Sherrod Brown narrowly leads recent polling, which effectively shows an evenly divided race.

Brown leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 0.6%.

Ohio voted for Trump in the three most recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Trump won Ohio by 11.2%.

In 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8.0%.

In 2016, Trump won Ohio by 8.1%.

Nevertheless, Ohio voted for Obama twice.

In 2012, Obama won Ohio by 3.0%.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4.6%.

Ohio has elected both Republicans and Democrats to the Senate, but Republicans have fared better in recent elections.

Ohio first elected Sherrod Brown (D) to the Senate in 2006.

Brown was reelected in 2012 and 2018.

In 2024, Sherrod Brown (D) ran for reelection against Businessman Bernie Moreno (R).

Moreno (R) won by 3.6%.

Before the 2024 Ohio Senate Race, I published an article where I showed how Sherrod Brown voted on key issues in the Senate, and discussed some of Bernie Moreno’s political liabilities.

After the 2024 election, I discussed the results of the 2024 Senate Races, including the one in Ohio.

In 2022, JD Vance (R) ran against Congressman Tim Ryan (D).

Vance (R) won by 6.1%.

Ohio most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2018, when the state reelected Sherrod Brown (D).

I predict Sherrod Brown will win the Ohio Senate Race, but that the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0.

I consider the Ohio Senate Race to be Tilt Democrat.

Although, I could easily see it going either way.

Texas

In Texas, State Representative James Talarico (D) is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

Talarico leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.9%.

Republicans have won recent Presidential and Senate elections in Texas, although they often win by less than 10%.

Texas voted for Trump in the three most recent presidential elections. 

In 2024, Trump won Texas by 13.7%.

In 2020, Trump won Texas by 5.6%.

In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9.0%.

In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) ran for reelection against Congressman Colin Allred (D).

Cruz won by 8.5%.

In 2020, Sen. John Cornyn (R) ran for reelection against Veteran MJ Hegar (D).

Cornyn won by 9.6%.

It has been 50 years since Texas voted for a Democrat for President.

Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1976, when the state voted for Jimmy Carter.

It has been 38 years since Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, when the state reelected Lloyd Bentsen.

James Talarico is an amazing candidate, Ken Paxton is a horrible candidate, and the national political environment is devastating for Republicans.

Texas is such a Republican state that it would take all three of these conditions to be met for a Democrat to have a real chance to win a Senate election in the state.

But this year, all three conditions have been met.

I predict James Talarico will win the Texas Senate Race, but that the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0.

I consider the Texas Senate Race to be Tilt Democrat.

Although, I could easily see it going either way.

Overall Prediction

So where does this leave the overall race for Senate control?

There are currently 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the US Senate.

The Democratic total includes Bernie Sanders and Angus King, two Independents who caucus with the Democrats.

I don’t believe Republicans will flip any seats currently held by Democrats.

I believe Democrats will flip 5 Senate Seats: North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas.

Therefore, I predict Democrats, and allied Independents, will enter the next congress holding 52 seats, and Republicans will hold 48 seats.

If that happens, Democrats will win Senate control.

But I consider two states, Ohio and Texas, to be Tilt Democrat.

If Republicans win these highly competitive races, and my other predictions are correct, the Senate would be tied with each party holding 50 seats.

If that happens, Vice President JD Vance would break the tie in favor of Republicans.

I currently believe Democrats hold a narrow advantage in the race for Senate Control, but the odds remain incredibly close.

If you would like to help Democrats flip control of the Senate, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund.

I’m currently raising money for 5 Senate candidates: James Talarico in Texas, Josh Turek in Iowa, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Adam Hamilton in Kansas.

Tables

 

Before we go, let’s examine a few tables that compare statistics I discussed in this article.

Here is a table showing the Real Clear Politics polling averages for these Senate Races as of Aug. 27, 2026. 

Real Clear Politics has not created polling averages for the Senate races in Nebraska and Kansas.

Here is a table showing how the 10 states discussed in this article voted in the 2024 Presidential Election.

Maine was the only state that voted for Harris.

The other nine all voted for Trump.

Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina voted for Trump by less than 5%.

Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Kansas each voted for Trump by more than 10%.

Nebraska voted for Trump by more than 20%.

This table shows how these states voted in Senate elections 2020. 

This table does not include Ohio, because this year’s Senate election in Ohio is a special election, and Ohio did not have a Senate election in 2020.

In 2020, Democrats won the regularly-scheduled Senate elections in Michigan and Georgia by less than 2%.

Republicans won the 2020 Senate elections in North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, and Texas by less than 10%.

Republicans won the 2020 Senate elections in Kansas and Alaska by more than 10%.

The Republican candidate won the 2020 Senate election in Nebraska by almost 40%.

Now, let’s look compare the most recent time these states voted for a Republican for president.

Nine states voted for Trump in 2024.

Only Maine didn’t vote for Trump in 2024.

Maine last voted for a Republican for President in 1988.

Next, let’s compare the most recent time these states voted for a Democrat for President.

Kansas, Nebraska, and Alaska haven’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964.

Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1976.

Now, let’s compare the most recent time these states elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Maine does not appear on this table.

In 2024, Maine reelected Angus King, an independent aligned with Democrats.

Kansas most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.

Texas most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988.

Finally, let’s compare the most recent time these states elected a Republican Senator.

Eight of these states have elected at least one Republican to the Senate since 2020.

Georgia hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2016.

Michigan hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994.

Writing this article took a lot of work.

You can support my coverage of the 2026 elections on Patreon.