Competitive Races for the Kansas Legislature

 

Today, we’ll take a tour of the races that will make or break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature.

But first, let’s examine how Republicans have used their Supermajority in recent years.

Republican Priorities

Since 2011, Republicans have held two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature.

The Republican supermajority allows Republican legislators to override a governor’s veto with only Republican votes.

This grants Republicans the ability to pass laws without support from any Democrats.

Earlier this year, Republicans in the Kansas Legislature overrode a veto from Gov. Laura Kelly (D), to pass a draconian anti-trans bill into law.

All of the members of the Kansas Legislature who voted to overturn Kelly's veto were Republicans.

The law prevents transgender people from obtaining identity documents that reflect their gender identity, and makes it illegal for transgender people to use certain restrooms and locker rooms in government buildings.

I wrote about the anti-trans law in an article I published last month.

The Republican two-thirds supermajority also allows Republicans to advance constitutional amendments to a public vote, without the need to secure support from any Democrats in the Legislature.

In Jan. 2021, both chambers of the Kansas Legislature advanced a state constitutional amendment that would give the Legislature the legal authority to enact a restrictive abortion ban.

All members of the Legislature who voted for the proposed amendment were Republicans.

In Aug. 2022, Kansas voters decisively rejected the proposed amendment by 18%.

I wrote about Republican efforts to limit abortion rights in Kansas, which continued even after voters rejected the anti-abortion amendment.

In March 2025, both chambers of the Kansas Legislature advanced a proposed constitutional amendment that would replace the current merit-based process for selecting Kansas Supreme Court Justices with direct elections.

Supporters of the proposal hoped electing State Supreme Court Justices would eventually lead the Kansas Supreme Court to overturn a key decision that protects abortion rights.

Supporters also hoped electing Supreme Court Justices would prevent the Kansas Supreme Court from requiring the Legislature to spend more money on K-12 education than it otherwise would.

All members of the Kansas Legislature who voted for the amendment to elect Kansas Supreme Court Justices were Republicans.

Earlier this month, Kansas voters decisively rejected the proposed amendment by 23%.

Last month, I wrote an in-depth editorial urging Kansans to vote against the amendment.

Only 5 Seats

Members of the Kansas House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the State Legislature, are up for reelection in 2026.

Members of the Kansas Senate, the upper chamber of the State Legislature, won’t be up for reelection until 2028.

Democrats only need to flip 5 seats in the Kansas House to break the Republican Supermajority in the chamber.

If Democrats break the supermajority, Republicans won’t be able to override a governor’s veto, or advance constitutional amendments to a public vote, without receiving support from Democratic lawmakers.

Today, we’ll explore the elections that will make or break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas House.

First, we’ll examine the most competitive races.

Then, we’ll discuss the reach seats that could potentially flip under the right conditions.

Finally, we’ll discuss the uncontested races in districts that could have been competitive if Democrats or Republicans had run a candidate.

Most Competitive Races

10 Kansas House districts were decided by less than 6% in both 2024 and 2022.

Those 10 districts were also decided by less than 700 votes in both 2024 and 2022.

You can click the tables and maps in this article to view larger versions of them.  

 

This table lists the most competitive races for the Kansas House.

The table lists the percent margin and vote margin in the district for each of the two most recent elections for the Kansas House. 

Candidates highlighted in soft yellow are the winners of contested primaries.

The names of elected incumbents are followed by “(i)”.

This table, and the ones that follow, are organized by the percent margin in 2024, with the closest races listed first.

6 of the 10 most competitive districts are located in Johnson County.

In 2025, Johnson County was the largest county in Kansas, by population.

21.4% of Kansas residents lived in Johnson County in 2025, according to data from the US Census. 

That means more than 1 in 5 Kansans lived in Johnson County, last year.

Johnson County is located in northeast Kansas, along the Kansas-Missouri border.

4 of the 10 most competitive districts are located outside Johnson County.

One is split between Sedgwick and Butler counties, and contains part of Wichita.

One is located in Reno County, and contains part of Hutchinson.

One is located in Riley County, and contains part of Manhattan.

One is located in Leavenworth County, and contains part of Leavenworth.

Republicans flipped three seats in the Kansas House in 2024.

They flipped districts 15, 14, and 102.

This year, the elections in districts 15 and 102 will be rematches between the candidates who ran against each other in 2024.

In these districts, former Democratic incumbents are running for their old seats, against the Republicans who defeated them two years ago. 

Allison Hougland and Jason Probst are running for the seats they lost in 2024. 

Now let’s take a closer look at the 6 most competitive races, which appear in the top half of the table above.

All 6 of these districts were decided by less than 4% in both 2024 and 2022.

All 6 districts were decided by less than 500 votes in both 2024 and 2022.

One of these seats is held by a Democrat.

The other 5 seats are held by Republicans.

If Democrats win all 6 of these most competitive races, they will break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature.

That means Democrats would only need a uniform margin swing of 3.3% in these races, compared to the 2024 margins, to break the Republican Supermajority in the Legislature.

5 of the 6 most competitive Kansas House districts are located in Johnson County.

One is split between Sedgwick and Butler counties.

Reach Seats

 

Next, let’s examine the less competitive seats that could potentially be in play.

In the table above, margins less than 10% are highlighted in lighter shades of blue and pink, and margins greater than 10% are highlighted in darker shades of blue and pink.

Each of these 8 districts were decided by less than 10% in either 2024 or 2022.

Dist. 78, in Johnson County, was decided by less than 10% in both 2024 and 2022.

Districts 56 and 96 were decided by less than 10% in 2024.

Districts 8, 121, 33, 117, and 17 were decided by less than 10% in 2022.

4 of these 8 less competitive districts are located entirely in Johnson County.

One is split between Johnson and Douglas counties.

The remaining 3 districts are located in Shawnee, Sedgwick, and Wyandotte counties.

Uncontested Races

There are 5 uncontested races in districts that were decided by less than 10% in either 2024 or 2022.

These are potentially competitive seats that either Republicans or Democrats left on the table by not running a candidate.

Republicans left more potentially competitive seats on the table this year.

4 Democratic incumbents are running unopposed in potentially competitive districts, which means Republicans left 4 pickup opportunities on the table.

One Republican incumbent is running unopposed in a potentially competitive district, which means Democrats left one pickup opportunity on the table.

As a Democrat who desperately wants to break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature, I am glad no Republicans chose to run in four potentially competitive districts. 

I hope they leave even more potentially winnable seats on the table in future elections.

But I understand why Republicans might be less likely to run for office this year. 

President Trump’s constant abuses of power and mismanagement of the economy create a challenging political environment for Republicans, and a favorable political environment for Democrats.

Dist. 48, in Johnson County, was decided by less than 6% in both 2024 and 2022.

Districts 53 and 95 were decided by less than 8% in 2024.

District 87 was decided by less than 9% in 2024.

District 16 was decided by less than 9% in 2022.

Two uncontested races, in potentially competitive seats, are for districts in Johnson County.

Two are for districts in Sedgwick County. 

One is for a district in Shawnee County. 

Overview

Now, let’s examine these districts collectively.

A total of 23 Kansas House districts were decided by less than 10% in either 2024 or 2022.

There are 125 seats in the Kansas House.

Therefore, 18.4% of Kansas House districts are potentially competitive. 

This map shows the counties with potentially competitive Kansas House districts.

A full county map of Kansas, with county names, appears later in this article.

12 of these potentially competitive districts are located entirely in Johnson County.

One is split between Johnson and Douglas counties.

Three of these potentially competitive districts are located in Sedgwick County, which contains Wichita.

One district is split between Sedgwick and Butler counties.

Two of these potentially competitive districts are located in Shawnee County, which contains Topeka.

The remaining 4 districts are located in Reno, Riley, Leavenworth, and Wyandotte counties.

Reno County contains Hutchinson.

Riley County contains Manhattan.

Leavenworth County contains Leavenworth.

Wyandotte County contains Kansas City, Kansas. 

A county map of Kansas.

 

 

I discussed six Democrats running in competitive races for the Kansas Legislature in an article I published in June.  

If you would like to help break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature, you can donate to Sunflower Democrats. 

If you would like to help Democrats win competitive US Senate and Governor’s Races, nationwide, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund. 

I have been tracking competitive elections for the Kansas Legislature for several years.

This article is the culmination of a lot of hard work, across many spreadsheets.  

If you found this article useful, consider supporting my work on Patreon. 

 

 

My 2026 Kansas Democratic Primary Ballot

 

I voted early in person on Monday morning, Aug. 3.

I voted for the candidates I endorsed in editorials on Meticulous Musings.

Therefore, my preliminary endorsements are the same as my final endorsements in those races.

Here is how I voted in the races and questions on my ballot.

US Senator: Christy Davis

US Representative: Colin McRoberts

Kansas First Congressional District

Governor / Lt. Gov.: Cindy Holscher / KC Ohaebosim

Secretary of State: Jennifer Day

Attorney General: Chris Mann (Uncontested Primary)

Insurance Commissioner: Dinah Sykes (Uncontested Primary)

State Representative: Brenda Bandy (Uncontested Primary)

Dist. 67

State Board of Education: Jennifer Lloyd (Uncontested Primary)

Dist. 1

Riley County Commissioner: Rob Voelker (Uncontested Primary)

Dist. 1

Constitutional Amendment: NO

Electing Kansas Supreme Court Justices

I wrote similar articles covering how I voted in the 2024 and 2022 general elections.

The 2026 Kansas Primary will be held tomorrow, Tuesday, Aug. 4.

Polls will be open from 7 AM to 7 PM in Riley County. 

 

Sample ballots are available from VoterView, a service provided by the Kansas Secretary of State's office. 

All registered voters, including unaffiliated voters, are eligible to vote on the state constitutional amendment.

 

I urge you to vote on election day, if you haven’t already. 

 

 

A Contested Primary in a Hopeless Race

Two Attorneys from Lawrence are running in the Democratic Primary in the Kansas First Congressional District, and neither of them have the slightest chance of winning in the general election.

Both Colin McRoberts and Lauren Reinhold are great candidates, with strong platforms, who have introduced themselves to my Indivisible chapter in Manhattan, Kansas. 

The table below lists the Democrats and Republicans running in each of the four Kansas Congressional Districts. 

 

 

The Kansas First Congressional District is easily the least competitive congressional district in the state.

In each of the 11 most recent elections in the Kansas First, the Republican candidate has won by more than 35%.

The Kansas First Congressional District, also known as the Big First, is gigantic. 

It stretches from the Kansas-Colorado border to Lawrence, in Eastern Kansas.

The Big First is shown in green on the map below.

Attribution:

By Nebraskan fellow - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=121276590 

It’s impossible for a Democrat to win the Deep Red Big First.

Democrats have run compelling, capable, and hard-working candidates in the Big First in previous elections, and each of them have been crushed in the general election.

Choosing which Democrat to run in the Big First is truly the equivalent of arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

There are competitive congressional races elsewhere, and if you want Democrats to win control of the US House, your efforts should be focused there.

Nevertheless, I live in the Big First, and the Democrats who are running in the district are interesting candidates. 

Just don’t get your hopes up.

And if you’re going to volunteer or donate to Kansas Democrats, focus your attention on races they could actually win.

Both McRoberts and Reinhold oppose cuts to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), a federal program that provided foreign aid to countries in need.

John Oliver discussed Trump's cuts to USAID on his program LastWeekTonight.

 

  

 

Colin McRoberts

Colin McRoberts has worked as a lawyer, and a negotiator.

"I worked on some of the most difficult and complex deals, helping Fortune 500 companies, unions, diplomatic teams, and government bodies make better deals under the toughest conditions – exactly what Congress and Kansas need now,” McRoberts wrote on his campaign website.

McRoberts teaches negotiation and business law at the University of Kansas (KU).

In March 2025, McRoberts attended a town hall in Oakley, Kansas, where US Senator Roger Marshall left early after receiving critical comments and tough questions from Kansans.

Oakley is located in Northwest Kansas.

WIBW also covered Marshall’s early departure from the town hall.

Colin McRoberts is a talented public speaker.

This can be seen in the passionate and energetic speech he delivered on March 28 at the No Kings 3 rally, in Manhattan, Kansas, which was hosted by my Indivisible chapter.

McRoberts supports restoring funding for USAID, and restoring scientific funding for the National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation.

He supports reversing cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

McRoberts supports amending federal law to automatically cancel presidential tariffs, after one year, unless Congress votes to extend them.

He supports holding the federal government accountable for “incompetence, indecency, and illegality.”

McRoberts supports amending federal law to allow victims sue federal officials who violate their rights.

“We’ve seen what happens when we trust the executive branch to police itself,” he wrote on his campaign website. “When an ICE agent killed Renee Good in Minneapolis, the government immediately declared there would not even be an investigation.”

“An amended Section 1983 would let victims (or their surviving families) sue in civil court, so the government would not be able to shut down investigations and obstruct justice,” he added.

McRoberts discussed his candidacy with the Kansas Reflector.

Lauren Reinhold

As a lawyer, Lauren Reinhold represented low-income Kansans fighting for their housing, consumer, and family rights, according to her campaign website.

Reinhold also advised families, employers, and immigrants on immigration law.

Reinhold worked for the federal government.

She served in the Social Security Administration, where she focused on workforce modernization and employee support.

She also served as an investigator for the National Labor Relations Board.

Lauren Reinhold witnessed firsthand the chaos Trump unleashed at the Social Security Administration (SSA), including through funding cuts initiated by DOGE, an initiative led by Elon Musk. 

“Committed to ensuring government functions well, Lauren planned to continue a long career in federal government administration,” she wrote on her campaign website.

“Unfortunately, her plans changed when DOGE cut SSA programs, slashed people-centered initiatives across the government, and eliminated thousands of jobs within her agency." 

In response, Reinhold resigned from the Social Security Administration, and chose to run for Congress.

“I’m fighting for Kansas, not for big corporations or special interests,” Reinhold wrote on her campaign website. “If anyone in Washington wants to push policies that hurt our farmers, our hospitals, our workers, or our towns, they’ll have to go through me first.” 

Reinhold opposes cuts to SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, and USAID. 

She said cuts to these programs have hurt farmers and families alike.

Reinhold supports rebuilding rural healthcare. 

She believes over-payed CEOs, and their corporations, should pay higher taxes.

Reinhold supports immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the US, according to her campaign website.

“Drawing on her experience as an immigration attorney, Lauren will advocate for long-overdue common-sense immigration reform that addresses our need for a stable agricultural workforce and family unity while securing the border and making sure our deportation policies are fair and humane,” Reinhold wrote.

“In Congress, Lauren will work for legislation that provides a fair path to citizenship for people who have been contributing to our society and our communities," Reinhold continued. 

"She will bring to the table her government and legal background to demand a fair and efficient immigration court process staffed by qualified judges, focusing on policies that treat immigrant families and communities with dignity and respect.”

Lauren Reinhold introduced herself to Indivisible Manhattan on April 25, during the Little Apple Pride Celebration, where we hosted a booth for our organization.

You can learn more about Lauren Reinhold and Colin McRoberts from the Kansas Reflector.

My Endorsement

Democrats have no chance of winning the Kansas First Congressional District.

Democrats would have their best performance in the Big First in more than 20 years, if they managed to narrow the Republican margin of victory to under 35%.

Both Colin McRoberts and Lauren Reinhold are quality candidates with strong platforms.

Both candidates have introduced themselves to my Indivisible chapter in Manhattan, Kansas.

McRoberts uses slightly sharper rhetoric to criticize the Trump administration.

McRoberts is also an amazing orator who delivers great speeches.

I plan to vote for Colin McRoberts, and I encourage others to do so as well.

It would be entertaining to watch McRoberts campaign in the general election, even though he has no chance to actually win.

My endorsements are preliminary, and subject to change, based on subsequent developments.

But I don’t believe my endorsement in this race will likely change.

I'm glad that both McRoberts and Reinhold are running for Congress.

Democrats should try to run candidates in every race, even in races they don’t have a chance to win.

I would love to have either McRoberts or Reinhold represent me in Congress, rather than Tracey Mann (R), but if history is any guide, that’s definitely not going to happen.

If you appreciate my coverage of the 2026 Kansas elections, you can support my work on Patreon.

The Kansas Democratic Senate Primary

 

There are 11 Democrats running for the US Senate in Kansas.

Rather than cover all 11 candidates, I will instead focus on the two leading candidates, Adam Hamilton and Christy Davis.

 

 

 

Before we discuss these candidates, we need a quick reality check.

It’s effectively impossible for a Democratic or Independent candidate to win a US Senate election in Kansas.

Republicans have won each of the 7 most recent US Senate elections in Kansas by more than 10%.

The last time Kansas elected a Democrat to the US Senate was in 1932, when the state elected George McGill.

That was so long ago, the picture we have for McGill is in black-and-white.

Kansas has been represented exclusively by Republicans in the US Senate for the past 87 years.

Republicans face a challenging political environment in 2026, because of Trump’s constant abuses of power and mismanagement of the economy.

Nevertheless, the political environment for Republicans in 2026 isn’t as bad as it was for Republicans during the height of the Great Depression, which is what it would take for Kansas to elect a Democrat to the US Senate.

Hamilton, Davis lead the pack

11 Democrats and 2 Republicans are running in the US Senate election in Kansas.

Two polls of likely Democratic primary voters found Adam Hamilton and Christy Davis are the leading candidates in the crowded field.

Hamilton sponsored a poll of 600 likely voters, which was conducted by the polling agency GBAO from July 13-16.

In the poll, Adam Hamilton led by 17%.

Adam Hamilton received 30%, Christy Davis received 13%, and Noah Taylor received 10%.

All other candidates received 5% or less.

An earlier poll also found Adam Hamilton and Christy Davis were the leading candidates in the Democratic Primary.

The poll was conducted by Change Research on behalf of Civic Clarity, a nonprofit that operates the Capitol Bee, a Kansas news organization.

The poll surveyed 1,022 likely Kansas Democratic Primary voters from June 11-15, and it was not commissioned by a candidate in the race.

Results were weighted to the expected primary electorate based on age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, and region.

The poll asked respondents who they would vote for in the Democratic Primary for US Senate, if the election were held today.

64% weren’t sure, 16% supported Adam Hamilton, 7% supported Christy Davis, 5% supported Patrick Schmidt, and all other candidates received 4% or less.

Damon Anderson, Jason Hart, Kevin Latz, and Michael Soetaert were not included as options in the poll, according to a Methodology document that describes how the poll’s questions were worded.

Respondents who weren’t sure were asked who they would vote for, if they had to choose.

The totals below include respondents who supported a candidate in the first question, and undecided respondents who indicated support for a candidate in the second question.

55% still weren’t sure, 18% supported Adam Hamilton, 10% supported Christy Davis, 7% supported Patrick Schmidt, and all other candidates received 4% or less.

Therefore, in the earlier Change Research poll from June, Hamilton led by 8%.

I encourage you to read the article the Capitol Bee wrote about their poll.

Adam Hamilton

Adam Hamilton is the Pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, the largest United Methodist church in the United States, which has about 24,000 members across nine locations in the Kansas City area.

Hamilton supports expanding Medicare drug price negotiation, reversing cuts to Medicaid, restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies, and protecting rural hospitals.

He opposes tariffs, wants to create a tax credit for first time home buyers, and wants to ban Wall Street investors from buying single family homes.

He wants to require data centers to pay their fair share of electricity costs, expand Medicare to cover vision and dental, and fight elder fraud and scams.

That sounds like a great platform to me.

Sometimes, Hamilton uses what I consider to be empty rhetoric, like this bland explanation for why he is running for Senate, which appears on the homepage of his campaign website.

“Adam is running for Senate because he believes we need to stop the chaos and corruption in Washington by actually listening, and bringing people together to solve problems. He isn’t a career politician; he’s a Kansan who believes we are better when we work together.”

Other times, Hamilton can sound like he actually has something to say.

For example, here is a quote that appears in an ad where Hamilton discusses cost-of-living concerns.

“America is more than a place. It’s an idea that all are created equal, endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights,” Hamilton says in the ad, according to the Kansas Reflector.

“Those rights exist not just for the wealthy few, but for all. Our leaders seem to have forgotten that and instead created a democracy that’s for sale to the highest bidder.”

A Political Liability

The Kansas Reflector reported on a story that could prove to be a political liability for Adam Hamilton, if he wins the Democratic nomination.

Scott Preston Moore, a former church volunteer, sexually molested teenage boys in 2005 at a youth camp retreat hosted by the Church of the Resurrection, which Hamilton founded.

The Kansas Reflector examined court documents from criminal cases against Moore, which formed the basis of its reporting on the story.

The Reflector cites an appellate court decision that said camp leaders were “dismissive” of the boys’ claims that they had been molested.

The Reflector said court records indicated church leaders didn’t initially report the incident to law enforcement or social services.

In 2006, church leaders alerted law enforcement and banned Moore from interacting with youth or vulnerable adults, after Moore entered campers’ rooms at night.

According to the Reflector, court records didn’t indicate any sexual molestation took place at the camp in 2006.

The Reflector discussed how the church changed its policies following these events.

“The church reevaluated its policies to better screen and train staff and volunteers, implementing a Safe Gatherings program, which requires at least two adults to supervise unrelated children and mandates immediate reporting of law, policy, or standards violations,” the Reflector reported.

“Nancy Brown, a former state legislator who served in the ’80s and ’90s and died in 2020, was one of the church leaders who investigated the boys’ 2005 reports. She developed a curriculum for the church to protect youths and vulnerable adults through a mandatory certification that eventually expanded, becoming the Safe Gatherings program, which is used in more than 10,000 organizations in 42 states.”

I believe this story poses a political liability for Adam Hamilton in the general election.

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, the incumbent in the race, and his allies, will likely argue Hamilton failed to protect children from sexual abuse.

When I try to convince people to vote against Roger Marshall, I would prefer not to have to respond to this argument against Hamilton.

Christy Davis

Christy Davis served as the Kansas Director for Rural Development for the United States Department of Agriculture.

Davis lives in Cottonwood Falls, in Chase County, in eastern Kansas. 

Davis supports funding healthcare and public schools, and reforming immigration policies to provide a pathway to citizenship while ending immigration practices that terrorize families. 

The platform on Davis’s campaign website is short, and not very detailed.

“I’m Christy Cauble Davis and I'm running for US Senate because hard-working Kansans deserve a proven leader who shows up and works for them,” Davis wrote on her website.

“As a business owner, advocate, and public servant, I have generated billions of dollars of impact on the Kansas economy. As Kansas Director for USDA Rural Development, I oversaw major investments in business, infrastructure, housing, and healthcare projects in our state while also leading a nationwide effort to cut red tape.”

Christy Davis and Patrick Schmidt, two Democrats running for the US Senate in Kansas, have both delivered speeches at No Kings rallies hosted by Indivisible Manhattan, an organization where I am an active member.

Patrick Schmidt delivered a speech at our No Kings 3 rally.

Christy Davis delivered a speech at our No Kings 2 rally, which I watched, but did not record. I was impressed by Davis’s speech.

Christy Davis also stopped by one of our smaller rallies to talk to us.

Davis’s in-person campaigning is considerably more impressive than her campaign’s online presence.

Adam Hamilton has not visited our Indivisible chapter in Manhattan, Kansas.

Christy Davis has been campaigning for the Senate seat for considerably longer than Adam Hamilton.

Davis launched her campaign in August 2025.

Hamilton launched his campaign in April 2026.

Davis discussed her campaign in an interview with the Kansas Reflector.

Campaign Fundraising

Adam Hamilton has raised a lot of money for his campaign, since it was launched three months ago.

The following numbers represent the amount the candidates have raised from 2021 to 2026, based on information published by the Federal Election Commission.

Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) has raised $6.1 million.

Adam Hamilton (D) has raised $3.7 million. 

Christy Davis (D) has raised $194,000, considerably less than Marshall or Hamilton. 

 

I have raised money for Davis's campaign. 

I raised $57.16 for Christy Davis through the Democratic Victory Fund and Sunflower Democrats. 

But fundraising alone isn’t enough for a Democrat to win a US Senate election in Kansas.

Barbara Bollier (D) ran against Roger Marshall in 2020.

Bollier raised more in a single quarter than any candidate in Kansas history, but Marshall still won the general election by 11.4%. 

I believe Barbara Bollier was a stronger candidate than either Hamilton or Davis, and she still lost by more than 10%.

Michael Soetaert

Michael Soetart ran in the Republican Primary in the Kansas First Congressional District in 2020.

In a campaign email, Soetaert said he would likely be the next Speaker of the House if he was elected to Congress.

Soetaert called on Congress to dismiss, vacate, and expunge the Congressional Record of Trump’s first impeachment.

This year, Michael Soetaert is running as a Democrat in the US Senate Primary.

Discussing the Candidates

In all honesty, Democrats have no chance to win a US Senate election in Kansas.

Democrats might be able to make Republicans spend a lot of money on the US Senate election in Kansas, which Republicans won’t be able to spend on more competitive Senate elections, elsewhere.

Democrats also might reduce the Republican the margin of victory in the Senate race to less than 10%.

As far as I’m concerned, these are some paltry consolation prizes. 

But let’s suspend our disbelief, and imagine a scenario where a Democrat actually wins a US Senate election in Kansas.

If that were to happen, Democrats would need everything to break in their favor.

That would include having an amazing top-tier candidate.

Democrats don’t have that this year.

Democrats had the perfect candidate when Barbara Bollier ran in 2020, and she still lost to Roger Marshall in the general election by 11.4%.

Adam Hamilton was late to adopt a policy platform.

But now he has one, and it’s really good.

Hamilton’s platform is considerably more detailed than Davis’s.

Nevertheless, in 2005, a church volunteer sexually molested teenage boys at a camp organized by Hamilton’s church, which Hamilton founded, and where he serves as lead pastor. 

Afterward, the church changed its policies to prevent similar crimes from happening in the future.

I will happily vote for Adam Hamilton in the general election, if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

But I believe Roger Marshall, and allied groups that will spend money in the race, will be able to make this story into a serious political liability for Hamilton.

And Democrats would need everything to break in their favor to have a chance of winning a US Senate election in Kansas.

I really like Christy Davis, but her campaign’s online presence needs a lot of work.

And she needs a more detailed policy platform than she currently has.

Christy Davis has my preliminary endorsement in the Democratic Primary in the US Senate election in Kansas.

My endorsements are preliminary, and subject to change, based on subsequent developments.

But I imagine my endorsement in this race will likely remain the same.

Even if you don’t vote for Christy Davis, please make sure you vote for someone other than Michael Soetaert in the primary, to ensure he doesn’t win the nomination.

I don’t believe either Adam Hamilton or Christy Davis have what it takes to win the general election.

Hamilton is on track to win the Democratic Primary, and lose the general election.

Many Democrats will get their hopes up about defeating Republican Senator Roger Marshall, before having those hopes crushed by the ultimate outcome of the race. 

There are a lot of competitive races in Kansas where Democrats have a real chance of winning.

In the primary, we can defeat the proposed constitutional amendment, and protect the Kansas Supreme Court from the influence of large campaign donors.

In the general election, Democrats have a real chance to win the Governor’s race, and defeat Kris Kobach in the Attorney General's race.

With so many key races for the legislature decided by narrow margins, Democrats could break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas House, if they work really hard to make it happen.

Democrats could also flip a seat on the Kansas Board of Education, in a district located in Johnson and Miami counties.

Just because Democrats don’t really have a chance to win the US Senate race, they could have a great general election in other, more competitive races. 

If you would like to make that a reality, consider donating to Sunflower Democrats, a fund I created to raise money for Kansas Democrats running in important and competitive races.

And if you found this article useful, consider supporting Meticulous Musings on Patreon. 

Who are the Democrats running for Kansas Governor?

 

Three Democrats, Cindy Holscher, Ethan Corson, and Curt Skoog, are running for Kansas Governor

Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson are both State Senators in the Kansas Legislature.

Curt Skoog is the Mayor of Overland Park.

Incumbent Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited an ineligible to run for reelection.

This article will discuss the Democrats running for Kansas Governor and their platforms.

But before we examine the differences between the candidates, let’s discuss some of the things they have in common.

Cindy Holscher, Ethan Corson, and Curt Skoog all live in Johnson County, Kansas.

Cindy Holscher and Curt Skoog live in Overland Park.

Ethan Corson lives in Fairway.

In 2025, Johnson County was the largest county in Kansas, by population.

According to data from the US Census, 21.4% of Kansas residents lived in Johnson County in 2025.

That means more than 1 in 5 Kansans lived in Johnson County, last year.

Johnson County is located in northeastern Kansas, along the Kansas-Missouri border.

None of the candidates running for governor have introduced themselves to the Indivisible chapter in Manhattan, Kansas, where I am an active member.

Some candidates, running for other positions, have spoken at our No Kings rallies and visited us at other events.

Cindy Holscher, Ethan Corson, and Curt Skoog all support expanding Medicaid.

Kansas is one of only 10 states that have not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, which is also known as Obamacare.

Here is a map showing which states have and haven’t expanded Medicaid, which was created by KFF, a nonprofit that covers healthcare policy.

I discussed the debate surrounding Medicaid Expansion in Kansas, and previous attempts to expand the state’s medicaid program, in an article I wrote in 2022.

Holscher takes the lead

A poll of likely Democratic primary voters found Cindy Holscher is the leading candidate in Democratic Primary for Kansas governor.

The poll asked respondents who they would vote for in the Democratic Primary for Kansas governor, if the election were held today.

55% weren’t sure, 31% supported Holscher, 8% supported Corson, and 5% supported Skoog.

If respondents weren’t sure, they were asked who they would vote for, if they had to choose.

The totals below include respondents who supported a candidate in the first question, and undecided respondents who indicated support for a candidate in the second question.

44% still weren't sure, 37% supported Holscher, 10% supported Corson, 7% supported Skoog, and 2% said they would not vote. 

Holscher had a strong lead over the other candidates, but it’s worth keeping in mind that 44% of likely voters were undecided in who they would vote for, and weren’t leaning toward a particular candidate.

The poll was conducted by Change Research on behalf of Civic Clarity, a nonprofit that operates the Capitol Bee, a Kansas news organization.

The poll surveyed 1,022 likely Kansas Democratic Primary voters from June 11-15, and it was not commissioned by a candidate in the race.

Results were weighted to the expected primary electorate based on age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, and region.

I recommend reading the detailed article that the Capitol Bee wrote about the results of their poll.

This table shows candidates running for governor, as well as candidates running in other statewide elections in Kansas.

Elections for Governor in Kansas are highly competitive.

The three most recent Kansas Governor elections were each decided by less than 6%.

In a previous article, I compared the competitiveness of statewide elections in Kansas for various positions. 

Beginning in 1974, Kansas governors have been elected to four-year terms.

Prior to 1974, Kansas governors were elected to two-year terms.

Since 1974, no political party has held the office of Kansas governor for more than two consecutive terms.

Laura Kelly, a Democrat, was elected governor in 2018, and she was reelected in 2022.

This means Kansas will likely elect a Republican governor in 2026.

But just because no political party has held the office of Kansas governor for more than two consecutive terms, in the past 50 years, that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

It just means it hasn’t happened yet.

Considering Trump’s constant abuses of power and mismanagement of the economy, Democrats will likely do well in 2026.

It would take a political environment, like the one we see today, for Democrats to break historical precedent, and win a Kansas governor’s race, even though the state has had a Democratic governor for the previous two terms.

The Cook Political Report considers the Kansas Governor’s Race to Lean Republican.

Cindy Holscher

Cindy Holscher has served in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature.

Holscher was first elected to the Kansas House in 2016, and she was reelected in 2018.

Holscher was first elected to the Kansas Senate in 2020, and she was reelected in 2024. 

 

Holscher represented Dist. 16, located in Johnson County, in the Kansas House.

Holscher represents Dist. 8, located in Johnson County, in the Kansas Senate.

On her campaign website, Cindy Holscher discussed the role she played in the repeal of the Brownback income tax cuts, which devastated the Kansas Budget.

Holscher wants to increase the state minimum wage to $16 an hour, fully fund special education, and provide free school lunches for all students.

Holscher wants to legalize marijuana for both recreational and medical purposes.

Holscher wants to eliminate taxes on diapers and feminine hygiene products.

Holscher also wants to create an independent panel to oversee redistricting, and prohibit mid-decade redistricting.

On her campaign website, Holscher said she will fight for all Kansans.

“Too many Kansans are working hard and still falling behind,” she said.

“Instead of standing up for Kansans, extremist politicians are pushing dangerous policies that hurt our families and divide our communities. I’m different. I’m running for Governor to fight for all Kansans, not the special interests who are hurting our families. I will fight for our kids, our seniors, our veterans, and our farmers.”

Former Gov. John Carlin and former Lt. Gov. Lynn Rogers have endorsed Cindy Holscher.

Cindy Holscher has chosen KC Ohaebosim as her running mate.

Ohaebosim is pronounced “Oh-HOB-oh-sum”.

KC Ohaebosim represents Dist. 89 in the Kansas House.

Dist. 89 includes parts of Wichita and Bel Aire, in Sedgwick County.

Ohaebosim was first elected to the Kansas House in 2016.

“Ohaebosim has earned national recognition for his legislative leadership, including being named Regional Legislator of the Year by the National Black Caucus of State Legislators in both 2022 and 2025,” Holscher’s campaign website states.

“As a state representative, Ohaebosim voted to end the disastrous Brownback tax experiment, strengthen civil rights protections, and support policies aimed at lowering costs for working families.”

Ethan Corson

Ethan Corson represents Dist. 7, located in Johnson County, in the Kansas Senate.

Corson was first elected to the Kansas Senate in 2020. He was reelected in 2024.

Ethan Corson worked for the US Department of Commerce during the Obama Administration.

On his campaign website, Corson said he opened access to international markets for American producers, including Kansas farmers, while working for the Commerce Department.

Corson supports fully funding special education, and raising pay and providing better retirement plans for teachers.

Corson promises to veto any bill that funds private schools using public dollars.

Corson supports investing in community colleges, technical colleges, and apprenticeships.

Corson supports investing in infrastructure.

Corson said he will stand up to the federal government and the presence of ICE in Kansas, which he said is causing chaos in the state.

Corson wants to strengthen ethics rules, reduce conflicts of interest, and curb the influence of dark money in state government.

On his campaign website, Ethan Corson wrote that he will fight for the next generation of Kansans, so they build a life in the state.

“As a lifelong Kansan, Ethan Corson was raised with Kansas values: work hard, give back, and always keep your word,” he wrote.

“That’s why Ethan has fought to protect our rights, fund public schools, and lower costs for working families. Ethan is running for Governor to fight for Kansans and make sure the next generation can build a life right here at home.”

Gov. Laura Kelly, former Gov. Kathleen Sebilius, and Lt. Gov. David Toland have endorsed Ethan Corson.

Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes has endorsed Ethan Corson as well.

Ethan Corson chose Renee Duxler as his running mate.

Renee Duxler spent most of her career as a social worker in Wichita supporting children with developmental disabilities, survivors of domestic violence, hospice patients, and families navigating healthcare challenges.

Duxler currently lives in Salina, where she has served as the President and CEO of the Salina Area Chamber of Commerce.

Ethan Corson accepted a $1,000 donation to his 2024 state senate campaign from CoreCivic, a private prison company that operates a prison in Leavenworth.

Cindy Holscher has criticized Corson for accepting the donation.

Curt Skoog

Curt Skoog is the Mayor of Overland Park, a city in Johnson County.

Skoog was first elected to the Overland Park City Council in 2005, and he has served as Mayor since 2021.

Skoog wants to create incentives for healthcare providers to practice in every part of the state, support biomedical innovation in mid-size and major cities, and preserve full-service hospitals and care in rural communities.

Skoog wants to support sustainable farming.

Skoog says he supports streamlining regulation, where it makes sense, so small businesses can start and grow.

Curt Skoog chose Jen Bacani McKenny as his running mate.

McKenny is a doctor in her hometown of Fredonia, a small town in Wilson County, located in southeast Kansas.

McKenny is the Wilson County Health Officer and the Fredonia City Health Officer, and she has served on the USD 484 School Board.

"Mayor Curt Skoog and Dr. Jen Bacani McKenney work every single day to help the people they serve,” according to their campaign website.

"At City Halls and the hospitals across Kansas, there’s no time for culture wars or political games – just a focus on what actually matters most. That’s how government should work and that’s exactly why Curt is running for Kansas Governor.”

Curt Skoog is a relative newcomer to the Kansas Governor’s race.

By comparison, both Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson have been campaigning for about a year.

Cindy Holscher launched her campaign in June 2025.

Ethan Corson launched his campaign in July 2025.

Curt Skoog launched his campaign on June 1, 2026, the filing deadline to run in the race.

Comparing the candidates

All else being equal, I believe candidates for important statewide positions, like governor or senator, should begin their campaigns early, rather than waiting until the last possible second.

For me, that’s pretty much a knockout blow against Curt Skoog.

If Skoog had a much stronger platform than any of the other Democratic candidates, I might be able to overlook his late entrance into the race.

But I don’t believe that to be the case.

Of the three candidates, I find Skoog’s platform to be the weakest.

All else being equal, when choosing a governor, I prefer a Democrat with experience in the legislature, to a mayor who hasn’t participated in politics at the state level.

That’s another blow against Skoog.

Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson are incredibly similar politicians.

I would be very happy if either of them won the primary, and overjoyed if either of them won the general election.

By my reckoning, Holscher has the better platform, and Corson has the better endorsements.

In particular, I appreciate Holscher’s support for raising the minimum wage to $16 an hour, providing free school lunches for all students, and creating an independent panel for redistricting.

I dislike that Ethan Corson accepted a campaign donation, during a previous election, from a private prison company.

I believe private prisons shouldn’t exist. They create a financial incentive to imprison more people, which can drive these companies to exert harmful political pressures on elected officials.

If Cindy Holscher weren't running, I would happily vote for Ethan Corson in the primary.

I don’t consider a campaign contribution from a private prison company to be a large problem.

But when deciding between two similar candidates, small differences can be decisive.

Based on the strength of Holscher’s platform, and Corson’s previous acceptance of a campaign contribution from a private prison company, Cindy Holscher is my choice in the Democratic Primary.

So, let’s rank the three candidates.

Cindy Holscher is my top choice, followed by Ethan Corson, with Curt Skoog in last.

But I would happily vote for any of them in the general election, should they win the Democratic Primary.

As I said in my article about the Democrats running for Kansas Secretary of State, my endorsements are preliminary, and subject to change based on subsequent developments.

That being said, I don’t believe my endorsement in the Democratic Primary for Kansas Governor is likely to change.

Postscript: KCUR, a public radio station in Kansas City, interviewed Cindy Holscher, Ethan Corson, and Curt Skoog in front of a live audience at the Overland Park Farmers Market.

This is arguably the most NPR thing that has ever happened.

The candidates discussed their positions on data centers, property taxes, the Kansas budget, and marijuana.