How Competitive are Kansas Congressional Races?

 

Previously, we examined the competitiveness of statewide elections are in Kansas.

But how competitive are the four Kansas congressional districts?

Today, we will explore the competitiveness of Kansas congressional districts by examining the results of previous elections.

This table shows the average partisan margin of victory, from 2016 to 2024, for each Kansas congressional district.

This period begins with Trump’s first presidential election in 2016, so the table shows the average result in each district during the Trump era of American politics.

 

Democrats are favored in the Kansas Third Congressional District.

Republicans are favored in the Kansas First, Fourth, and Second congressional districts.

The Kansas Third is the most competitive, followed by the Second, Fourth, and First districts.

Here is a map of the Congressional Districts in Kansas, which I found on Wikipedia.

Attribution:

By Nebraskan fellow - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=121276590 

The Kansas First is green.

The Kansas Second is blue.

The Kansas Third is yellow.

The Kansas Fourth is purple.

The Kansas Third — A Democratic District

Kansas is currently represented by two Republicans in the US Senate, Roger Marshall and Jerry Moran.

Kansas is represented by three Republicans in the US House: Tracey Mann, Derek Schmidt, and Ron Estes.

The only Democrat elected in Kansas, to either chamber of Congress, is Sharice Davids, who represents the Kansas Third Congressional District in the US House.

Let’s begin by examining the results of elections in the Kansas Third, from 2004 to 2024.

During this time, the Kansas Third was represented by Dennis Moore (D), Kevin Yoder (R), and Sharice Davids (D).

Across the 11 most recent elections, held in the Kansas Third, the average margin has been a Democratic victory by 1.3%.

That’s about as close as you can get.

Next, let’s examine elections in the Kansas Third, from 2016 to 2024. 

Republican Kevin Yoder won in 2016, but Democrat Sharice Davids has won every election since then.

The average margin, from 2016 to 2024, in the Kansas Third has been a Democratic victory by 6.4%. 

Finally, let’s examine the results of Sharice Davids’s elections.

Davids was first elected in 2018, and she has been elected to Congress four times.

On average, Sharice Davids has won the Kansas Third Congressional District by 10.7%.

The Kansas Third is the most competitive congressional district in Kansas, and it’s really competitive when viewed over a longer time frame.

But Davids has won each of her elections fairly comfortably, and she won each of her three most recent elections by more than 10%. 

In 2022, Sharice Davids won reelection even though Republicans in the Kansas Legislature gerrymandered her district to defeat her.

Not only did Davids win in 2022, she won by a larger margin than either of her previous elections to the same position.

In 2026, the Cook Political Report considers the Kansas Third to be Solidly Democratic.

The Kansas Second — Occasionally Competitive

Republican Derek Schmidt represents the Kansas Second Congressional District.

Schmidt was first elected to Congress in 2024, by a margin of 18.9%.

Derek Schmidt ran a transphobic campaign for Kansas governor in 2022.

Schmidt’s gubernatorial campaign was unsuccessful, and incumbent Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly was narrowly reelected by 2.2%.

Let’s begin by examining elections in the Kansas Second, from 2004 to 2024.

Since 2004, the Kansas Second has been represented by Jim Ryun (R), Nancy Boyda (D), Lynn Jenkins (R), Steve Watkins (R), Jake LaTurner (R), and Derek Schmidt (R).

Republicans have won 10 of the 11 most recent elections in the Kansas Second.

Nancy Boyda, a Democrat, won the 2006 election in the Kansas Second, by 3.5%.

The Kansas Second generally isn’t that competitive.

Republicans have won 8 of the 11 most recent elections in the Kansas Second by more than 10%.

By comparison, 3 of the 11 most recent elections were decided by less than 10%.

Boyda, a Democrat, won in 2006 by 3.5%.

Lynn Jenkins, a Republican, won in 2008 by 4.4%.

Steve Watkins, a Republican, won in 2018 by 0.8%.

Nationwide, 2006, 2008, and 2018 were particularly good election years for Democrats.

So, under the right conditions, the Kansas Second can be politically competitive, even though it generally isn’t.

Considering Trump’s constant scandals and abuses of power, 2026 could be a similarly good election year for Democrats.

Now, let’s examine elections in the Kansas Second, from 2016 to 2024. 

Republicans won all five elections in the Kansas Second during the Trump era.

On average, the Republican candidate has won by 15.6%.

Republican Lynn Jenkins had the largest margin of victory when she won by 28.4% in 2016.

Republican Steve Watkins had the smallest margin of victory when he won by only 0.8% in 2018.

In 2026, the Cook Political Report considers the Kansas Second to be Solidly Republican.

The Kansas Fourth — Reliably Republican

The Kansas Fourth is represented by Republican Ron Estes, who was first elected to the US House in a 2017 special election.

President Trump nominated Mike Pompeo, who represented the Kansas Fourth in the US House, to become CIA Director.

Pompeo resigned from the House after the Senate confirmed him to serve as CIA Director.

A special election was held on April 11, 2017, during the first year of Trump’s first term, to fill the vacant seat.

Republican Ron Estes was first elected to Congress in this special election.

Estes won by 6.2%, a considerably smaller margin than the Republican margins of victory during regularly-scheduled elections in the Kansas Fourth.

 

Next, let’s examine regularly-scheduled elections in the Kansas Fourth, from 2004 to 2024.

The tables, averages, and analysis in the rest of this section won’t include the 2017 special election discussed above.

The Kansas Fourth is a solidly Republican district.

Republicans have won each of the 11 most recent regularly-scheduled elections in the Kansas Fourth by more than 18%.

On average, they have won those elections by 28.7%.

Todd Tiahrt (R) achieved the largest margin of victory in 2004, when he won by 35.0%.

Ron Estes (R) had the smallest margin of victory in 2018, when he won by 18.7%.

Now, let’s examine the results from 2016 to 2024.

During the Trump era, Republicans won the Kansas Fourth, in regularly-scheduled elections, on average, by 26.8%.

Mike Pompeo (R) had the largest margin of victory in 2016, when he won by 31.1%.

Ron Estes (R) had the smallest margin of victory in 2018, when he won by 18.7%.

Finally, let’s examine Ron Estes’s elections, from 2018 to 2024.

 

Estes has won these regularly-scheduled elections, on average, by 25.7%.

His narrowest margin was in 2018, when he won by 18.7%.

His largest margin was in 2024, when he won by 30.1%.

During regularly-scheduled elections, the Kansas Fourth is not a competitive district.

In 2026, the Cook Political Report considers the Kansas Fourth to be Solidly Republican.

The Kansas First — Deep Red

The Kansas First is represented by Tracey Mann, who was first elected to Congress in 2020.

Let’s begin by examining elections in the Kansas First, from 2004 to 2024.

 

Republicans have won all 11 of the most recent elections in the Kansas First by more than 35%.

Since 2004, the Kansas First has been represented by Jerry Moran, Tim Huelskamp, Roger Marshall, and Tracey Mann. 

The 2004 election in the Kansas First was between Jerry Moran, a Republican, and Jack Warner, a Libertarian.

Moran (R) received 90.7% of the vote, and Warner (L) received 9.3%.

Moran won by a margin of 81.4%.

Moran’s margin in 2004 is considerably larger than subsequent margins for elections in the district, which generally include a Republican and a Democrat.

Because of this outlier, I did not calculate an average margin of victory from 2004 to 2024 in the Kansas First. 

Another notable entry is for the 2012 election, when Republican Tim Huelskamp ran unopposed.

This next table shows the results of elections in the Kansas First from 2006 to 2024.

During this time, Republicans won the Kansas First by an average margin of 45.1%.

This average does not include Huelskamp’s unopposed election in 2012. 

During this time, the largest margin was in 2008, when Jerry Moran (R) won by 68.6%.

The smallest margin was in 2022, when Tracey Mann (R) won by 35.3%. 

Now, let’s examine the results in the Kansas First, from 2016 to 2024.

During the Trump era, Republicans have won the Kansas First, on average, by 38.4%.

Roger Marshall and Tracey Mann, both Republicans, represented the Kansas First, during this time.

The largest margin was in 2020, when Tracey Mann won by 42.3%. 

The narrowest margin was in 2022, when Tracey Mann won by 35.3%. 

Finally, let’s examine Tracey Mann’s elections, from 2020 to 2024.

Tracey Mann (R) has won these elections, on average, by 38.6%.

His closest race was in 2022, when he won by 35.3%.

To reiterate, the Republican candidate has won the Kansas First in each of the 11 most recent elections by more than 35%.

The Kansas First is a deeply Republican district, and it's not remotely competitive.

In 2026, the Cook Political Report considers the Kansas First to be Solidly Republican. 

What You Can Do

None of the Kansas congressional districts currently have competitive elections.

But there are competitive house races in other states.

This year, I am raising money for Democrats running in important and competitive elections through the Democratic Victory Fund.

I am currently raising money for nine US House candidates in five states.

Texas: Katy Padilla Stout, Bobby Pulido, Vicente Gonzalez

Pennsylvania: Bob Brooks, Janelle Stelson

Florida: Kathy Castor, Darren Soto

Nebraska: Denise Powell

North Carolina: Jamie Ager

The Cook Political Report considers these elections to range from Lean Democrat to Likely Republican.

The names of elected incumbents are followed by (i).

You can support these candidates, and help Democrats win as many House seats as possible, by donating to the Democratic Victory Fund.

A Fascinating Iowa Senate Race

 

Two candidates with fascinating life stories are running for the Democratic nomination in the senate election in Iowa.

Zach Wahls, who was raised by a lesbian couple, eloquently and tirelessly advocated for gay rights, before he was elected to serve in the Iowa State Senate.

Josh Turek, who has Spina Bifida, trained hard to become a wheelchair basketball paralympian who won two gold medals, before he was elected to serve in the Iowa House of Representatives.

Iowa will hold its primary on June 2.

 

The US Senate election in Iowa is for an open seat, because Republican Senator Joni Ernst chose not to run for reelection.

The 2026 Iowa Senate Race has received little national attention, despite the captivating life stories of the two rising stars running in the Democratic primary.

So let’s learn about these candidates, and their fascinating biographies, as we explore the most interesting Senate Race you’ve likely never heard of.

Fighting for Equality

 

Zach Wahls was raised by his two mothers, Terry Wahls and Jackie Reger.

Both Zach Wahls and his sister were conceived via artificial insemination, from the same anonymous sperm donor, which means they are full biological siblings.

Zach Wahls advocated for gay rights as the US debated whether same-sex couples should be allowed to legally marry.

In 2009, the Iowa Supreme Court overturned a state law that banned gay marriage.

Republicans in the Iowa House of Representatives attempted to overturn the State Supreme Court decision by amending the Iowa State Constitution to ban gay marriage.

The Judiciary Committee of the Iowa House held a hearing on January 31, 2011, as the legislature considered whether to approve the proposed state constitutional amendment.

Zach Wahls, who was a 19-year-old college student at the time, eloquently advocated in favor of marriage equality and against the proposed amendment.

His arguments were so well reasoned that The Economist magazine introduced video of Wahls’s testimony by stating, “This is what it looks like to win an argument.”

 

Wahls told the committee that his family isn’t that different from any other Iowa family.

“When I’m home, we go to church together. We eat dinner, we go on vacations,” he said. “But, we have our hard times too; we get in fights. Actually, my mom, Terry, was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis in 2000. It is a devastating disease that put her in a wheelchair. So, we’ve had our struggles."

“But we’re Iowans,” Wahls continued. “We don’t expect anyone to solve our problems for us. We’ll fight our own battles. We just hope for equal and fair treatment from our government.”

Wahls said the topic of same-sex marriage came up frequently during class discussions at his university.

“The question always comes down to, ‘Can gays even raise kids?’ And the conversation gets quiet for a moment, because most people don’t really have an answer,” he said. “And then I raise my hand and say, ‘Well actually, I was raised by a gay couple, and I’m doing pretty well.’ ”

Wahls reiterated that his family is not that different.

“My family really isn’t so different from yours,” he said. “After all, your family doesn’t derive its sense of worth from being told by the state, ‘You’re married, congratulations!’ No. The sense of family comes from the commitment we make to each other to work through the hard times so we can enjoy the good ones. It comes from the love that binds us. That’s what makes a family.”

Wahls argued against amending the Iowa constitution to discriminate against families like his.

“So what you’re voting for here is not to change us,” he said. “It’s not to change our families, it’s to change how the law views us, how the law treats us.”

“You are voting for the first time in the history of our state to codify discrimination into our constitution, a constitution that but for the proposed amendment is the least amended constitution in the United States of America,” Wahls added.

“You are telling Iowans, ‘Some among you are second-class citizens who do not have the right to marry the person you love,’" Wahls continued.

“So will this vote affect my family? Would it affect yours? In the next two hours, I’m sure we’re going to hear plenty of testimony about how damaging having gay parents is on kids. But in my 19 years, not once have I ever been confronted by an individual who realized independently that I was raised by a gay couple.”

Zach Wahls’s testimony before the committee lasted only three minutes, but it is worth watching in full.

A YouTube video of Wahls’s testimony went viral.

Nevertheless, despite Wahls’s moving argument, the Iowa House voted to advance the proposed state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. But the amendment was blocked in the Iowa Senate.

Wahls went on to write a book about his upbringing titled, “My Two Moms: Lessons of Love, Strength, and What Makes a Family.”

He delivered a petition to the Boy Scouts of America advocating against the organization’s ban on gay and lesbian scout leaders.

At the 2012 Democratic National Convention, Wahls praised President Barack Obama for being willing to “put his political future on the line” to support same-sex marriage.

Wahls was elected to the Iowa State Senate in 2018, and he was reelected to the Iowa Senate in 2022.

In the Iowa Legislature, Wahls served as Minority Leader for Senate Democrats from 2020 to 2023.

In February 2011, Chloe Angyal, a journalist from Sydney, Australia, wrote an article for the blog, “Feministing” about Zach Wahls’s testimony before the Iowa Legislature.

The article was titled, “Marry Me, Zach Wahls.”

In the article, Angyal wrote, “Full transcript below the jump. Oh, and Zach? Several Feministing contributors are developing large crushes on you. I won’t name any names, but they rhyme with ‘Shmaya’ and ‘Shloe.’ What can we say? We dig guys who dig equality.”

The article led to Zach and Chloe meeting and subsequently dating. They got married in 2021.

Zach Wahls is now running for the US Senate in Iowa.

 

Overcoming Adversity

 

Josh Turek, a wheelchair basketball paralympian, is also running for the US Senate in Iowa. 

 

 

Turk was born with spina bifida, and he received 21 surgeries by the age of 12.

Turek aspired to become an Olympic athlete. 

Turek trained hard to reach his goal. He practiced by shooting a thousand basketball shots every day. 

Turek played on the USA Men’s Paralympic Wheelchair Basketball team that won gold medals in 2016 and 2020.

Josh Turek was elected to the Iowa House of Representatives in 2022. He was reelected in 2024.

In 2023, Turek told the Des Moines Register that he looked forward to advocating for Iowans with disabilities in the legislature.

"We have essentially been 15% (of the state) with zero voice and zero representation," he said. "Essentially, (we're an) invisible minority group in the state of Iowa." 

Turek said he hopes kids on field trips who use mobility aids will appreciate seeing a legislator like them.

"There's going to be a wheelchair user. He's going to go in there and see, 'Wow, there's a legislator up here representing me and my group,'" Turek said. 

"And he's going to know that, not only can he have success in adaptive sports, but that there is no glass ceiling for him in any area. That he can go on to do great things, including being a representative for the state or even (at a) national level."

The news publication “Iowa Starting Line” interviewed Josh Turek about his US Senate campaign.

 

A Competitive General Election

 

By now, the former swing state of Iowa has earned a reputation for being a deeply Republican state.

In the 2024 Presidential Election, Donald Trump won Iowa by 13.2%.

 

But a poll of the Iowa Senate race indicates Democrats have a chance to win the seat in November.

The polling firm Echelon Insights conducted a poll from April 3-9 that compared both Democratic candidates in head-to-head general election matchups against Ashley Hinson, a Republican candidate in the US Senate election, who is currently a member of the US House.

 

Zach Wahls leads Hinson by 2%.

Josh Turek leads Hinson by 1%.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, Iowa is poised to have a competitive US Senate race in November. 

The Cook Political Report considers the Iowa Senate race to be Likely Republican. 

 

Unfortunately, Iowa can’t elect both of the Democratic candidates to the US Senate in 2026. 

But the next US Senate race in Iowa is just around the corner.

Hopefully, either Wahls or Turek wins the 2026 US Senate election in Iowa.

If they do, the candidate who lost the Democratic primary can run against Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley in 2028.

You can support both Zach Wahls and Josh Turek by donating to the Democratic Victory Fund, which raises money for candidates in important and competitive elections, nationwide.

 

 

If you would like to learn more about these candidates, you can do so through the links below. 

 

Here are the campaign websites for the Democratic candidates:

Zach Wahls 

Josh Turek

 

Here are the Wikipedia pages for the Democratic candidates:

Zach Wahls 

Josh Turek 

 

How competitive is Kansas?

 

Kansas has a reputation of being a reliably Republican state, especially in presidential elections.

But Kansas does sometimes elect Democrats in statewide races, most notably for Governor.

So how politically competitive is Kansas?

The answer depends on which office we’re talking about.

The following table lists the average partisan margin of victory for statewide elections in Kansas, based on the office the election is for.

These averages were calculated using data publicly available on the Kansas Secretary of State’s website, for elections from 2004 to 2024.

Governor elections are the most competitive in Kansas, followed by elections for Attorney General.

Presidential elections are next, followed by elections for Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, and US Senate. 

 

Governor

 

The most competitive elections in Kansas are for Governor.

 

Democrats have won three of the last five Kansas Governor’s races.

Across those five elections, Republicans won on average by 2.0%.





Recent Kansas Governor elections have been especially competitive.

Each of the last three Kansas Governor’s races have been decided by less than 6%.

I wrote an article about Laura Kelly’s narrow victory in the 2022 Kansas Governor’s race.

Attorney General

The next most competitive elections in Kansas are for Attorney General.

 

Republicans won four of the five most recent Kansas Attorney General elections.

A Democrat won one of the five most recent Kansas Attorney General elections. 

Across those five elections, Republicans won on average by 9.8%.






In 2022, Kris Kobach, a Republican, defeated Chris Mann, a Democrat, by only 1.6%. 

This year’s Attorney General election in Kansas will be a rematch between the same two candidates.

President

Kansas has voted for the Republican candidate for president in each of the six most recent presidential elections.

Across those six elections, Kansas voted for the Republican candidate by an average of 18.9%.

Since 2004, the closest presidential election in Kansas was the 2020 presidential election, when Trump won Kansas by 14.7%.







Kansas has voted Republican in the past 15 presidential elections, according to Wikipedia.

Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since it voted for Lyndon Johnson in 1964, when he ran against Barry Goldwater.

That means it has been 62 years since a Democrat has won Kansas in a presidential election.







Kansas has voted for Donald Trump in each of the past three presidential elections. 

On average, Trump has won Kansas by 17.1%.

Secretary of State

Republicans have won each of the five most recent Secretary of State races in Kansas. 

 

Republicans have won these elections by an average of 20.0%.

Since 2006, the closest Secretary of State election in Kansas was in 2018, when Scott Schwab won by 8.7%.

 

That election was a three-way race between Republican Scott Schwab, Democrat Brian McClendon, and Libertarian Rob Hodgkinson.


I wrote an article about Scott Schwab’s reelection in 2022.

State Treasurer

Republicans have won each of the five most recent State Treasurer elections in Kansas. 

 

Republicans have won these elections by an average of 21.8%.

Since 2006, the closest State Treasurer election in Kansas was in 2022, when Steven Johnson won by 12.6%.
 

That election was a three-way race between Republican Steven Johnson, Democrat Lynn Rogers, and Libertarian Steve Roberts.

 

 

Rogers was elected lieutenant governor in 2018 on a gubernatorial ticket alongside Laura Kelly, who was elected governor.
 

Rogers served as lieutenant governor from Jan. 2019 to Jan. 2021, when Gov. Kelly appointed Rogers to serve as State Treasurer, after Republican Jake LaTurner was elected to the US House in 2020.

 

 

In the 2022 election, both Johnson and Rogers were well qualified for the position of State Treasurer.
 

Even though Rogers lost, he outperformed previous Democratic State Treasurer candidates because voters remembered he had served as Kelly’s lieutenant governor, and he was an appointed incumbent.
 

I voted for Rogers, but I was unimpressed by his political skills as a campaigner in the 2022 State Treasurer election.
 

I wrote an article about the 2022 Kansas State Treasurer election, where you can learn more about the race.

Insurance Commissioner

Republicans have won each of the five most recent Insurance Commissioner races in Kansas.

 

In one of those elections, the Republican ran unopposed in the general election.

 

Republicans won the other four elections by an average of 26.3%.

 

Since 2006, the closest election for Insurance Commissioner took place in 2014, when Republican Ken Selzer won by 23.0%.

I covered the 2022 Kansas Insurance Commissioner election and its results.

Senator

Republicans have won each of the seven most recent US Senate elections in Kansas.  

 

Republicans have won those elections by an average of 26.3%.

Kansas has been represented exclusively by Republicans in the US Senate for 87 years.

 

The most recent Democrat to represent Kansas in the US Senate was George McGill, who served from Dec. 1930 to Jan. 1939.

McGill was elected to the US Senate in 1930 and 1932.
 

That means it has been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democrat to the US Senate.
 

McGill lost reelection in 1938.




Not all Republicans perform equally well in US Senate elections in Kansas.
 

Jerry Moran has performed better in US Senate elections than either Roger Marshall or Pat Roberts.
 

I wrote about about Jerry Moran’s reelection in 2022.




Since 2004, the closest US Senate election in Kansas took place in 2014, when Pat Roberts, a Republican, defeated Greg Orman, an independent, and Randall Batson, a Libertarian.
 

Roberts won the 2014 election by 10.6%.




In 2020, Roger Marshall, a Republican, was elected to the US Senate, for the first time, by 11.4%.
 

Marshall ran against Barbara Bollier, a Democrat, and Jason Buckley, a Libertarian.

Roger Marshall is up for reelection this year.

How you can help Kansas Democrats

 

This year, I am raising money for Democrats in competitive races, nationwide, through the Democratic Victory Fund.
 

I am currently raising money for Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson, who are running for Kansas Governor.
 

I am also raising money for Christy Davis, who is running for the US Senate in Kansas.
 

If Davis wins the Democratic Primary, she will run against incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall in the general election.




By default, donations to the Democratic Victory Fund are split evenly between the featured candidates, but donors can choose to make directed donations to specific candidates within the fund, instead.
 

So, if you want to specifically support the candidates from Kansas, you can do so.




I have already raised $100.63 for Chris Mann, who is running against Kris Kobach in the Kansas Attorney General election.
 

Since I have met my fundraising goal for Chris Mann, I have rotated him out of the Democratic Victory Fund.

Candidates have until June 1 to file their candidacy for the 2026 Kansas Primary, according to the Kansas Secretary of State's website.

 

There are many winnable State House races for the Kansas Legislature where a Democrat hasn’t filed to run. 

 

That being said, the filing deadline is still a month away.

Last year, I discussed the most competitive Kansas House seats, and you can check the candidate list from the Kansas Secretary of State’s website to see if any Democrats are running for a particular seat.

If you live near a competitive district, you might try to convince a Democrat to run for the position. 

 

If you live in the district, or you are willing to move to the district, you could also consider running for the position, yourself.




I plan to share an ActBlue fundraising form to raise money for Kansas candidates, including candidates for the Kansas Legislature, once we are closer to the filing deadline for the primary election.




This isn’t the first time I’ve compared the competitiveness of Kansas elections, based on the office the election is for.

You can read a similar article I wrote in 2022 about partisan advantage in Kansas elections.

Midterm Math: House Edition

Between Trump’s War on Iran, Trump’s tariffs, and the murder of American citizens by agents of the federal government, things are not going well in Trump’s America.

The horrors committed by an aspiring autocrat are bad for the country, but they also create a favorable political environment for Democrats in this year’s upcoming midterm elections.

Today, we’re going to examine how well Democrats might perform in the US House in 2026.

In the process, we will discuss elections where Democrats have performed well in the US House, from 1990 to the present.

Baseline

 

Democrats won 215 US House seats in 2024.

This will be the baseline for comparisons that discuss how many additional seats Democrats need to win in 2026 to perform as well as they have in previous elections, when Democrats performed well in the House.

I will rely on a table of US House results for elections from 1990 to 2024, and its accompanying graphs, that I first published in Republicans retain House control in January 2025, about the results of the 2024 House elections.

I originally obtained the data in that table from Wikipedia, which I believe to be a reliable source for data about historical election results.

I will also use the forecasts for US House races compiled by the Cook Political Report.

Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball publish forecasts for various races that describe how likely Democrats or Republicans are to win, using tossup, lean, and likely designations.

The expert forecasts from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are free and open to the public.

It’s a lot easier to use one of these resources for my political analysis, at a time, than to try to use both simultaneously.

I primarily used forecasts from Sabato’s Crystal Ball during my coverage of elections in 2024.

This article will instead use forecasts from the Cook Political Report.

Here are the forecasts for US House races from the Cook Political Report, as of March 12, 2026.

Some of the races in the screenshot above are described as open seats, which means the elected official currently representing the district is not running for reelection, at least not in the district they currently represent.

The results of the 2025 elections and the results of recent special elections indicate Democrats are positioned to perform well in the 2026 midterms.

Now, let’s explore just how well Democrats could do in 2026 in the US House, by examining several scenarios, in ascending levels of optimism for Democrats.

The Bare Minimum

There are 435 seats in the US House of Representatives.

That means 218 votes are required to obtain a majority in the US House, if all members are present and voting.

Democrats won 215 US House seats in 2024, which means they only need to flip three seats to win a majority in the chamber, securing House control.

But given the current political climate, fueled by a narcissistic, idiotic, tyrannical buffoon of a president, Democrats will likely do much better than that.

Cook’s Median Prediction

The Cook Political Report considers 212 House seats to be Solid Democratic, Likely Democratic, or Lean Democratic.

Cook considers 206 House seats to be Solid Republican, Likely Republican, or Lean Republican.

Cook classifies 17 House seats as tossups.

If we divide these tossup races evenly, Democrats and Republicans would each receive 8.5 additional seats.

This analysis is for Cook’s median prediction, which produces a fractional result.

In practice, a seat would not be split by partisan affiliation, as the following analysis might suggest.

Adding these tossups to the partisan totals, Cook’s median prediction is for Democrats to win 220.5 seats, and Republicans to win 214.5 seats.

This would give Democrats only two, and a half, more votes than the 218 they need to secure the House majority, if all members are present and voting.

Democrats won 215 seats in 2024, so they would only need to flip five, and a half, seats to reach Cook’s current median prediction.

Put another way, Cook is currently predicting that Democrats will only flip five, and a half, House seats in 2026.

Given the current political climate, I believe the Cook Political Report is likely underestimating Democratic chances in House races in 2026.

But it’s also worth bearing in mind that they are experts in election forecasting, and I am not.

2020 – Democrats’ Most Recent Majority

In 2020, Joe Biden was elected president, following Trump’s catastrophic mismanagement of the COVID pandemic.

That was the most recent election where Democrats won control of the US House.

In 2020, Democrats won 222 House seats, and Republicans won 213.

Coincidentally, those numbers exactly flipped in 2022, when Republicans won 222 seats and Democrats won 213.

Democrats would need to flip 7 seats in 2026 to win as many seats as they won in 2020, the last time they held majority control of the House.

2018 – Trump’s First Midterm

Democrats performed particularly well in the US House in 2018, during Trump’s first midterm.

In 2018, Democrats won 235 seats in the US House.

Democrats would need to flip 20 seats in 2026 to perform as well as they did in 2018.

I find this outcome to be the most likely of the historical comparisons we will discuss today.

I created the graphs in this article using Flourish, a website that allows users to create compelling visual aids.  

 

Let’s examine what this would look like in practice.

To win 235 seats in 2026, Democrats would need to win all of the Solid D, Likely D, Lean D, Tossup, and Lean R races, as well as two Likely R seats.

I find the chances that Democrats perform as well as they did in 2018, in Trump’s first midterm, to be a reasonable prediction.

Therefore, I believe Democrats are positioned to perform better in 2026 than Cook’s forecasts predict. 

But that being said, I have consistently been optimistic about Democrats’ political chances, even in elections where Democrats didn’t end up doing particularly well.

Comparing 2018 and 2006

In many ways, Trump’s reelection in 2024 feels reminiscent of George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004.

So it would seem right that Democrats would be positioned to perform well in Trump’s second midterm, just as they did in Bush’s second midterm.

But Democrats actually won more seats in the US House in 2018, than they did in 2006.

Democrats won 235 House seats in 2018, whereas Democrats only won 233 House seats in 2006.

If Democrats perform as well in the House in 2026 as they did in 2006, they would have two fewer seats than they had after 2018.

Democrats would need to flip 18 seats to win a majority as large as they had after the 2006 election.

Democrats would need to win all of the Solid D, Likely D, Lean D, Tossup, and Lean R races to win 233 seats, and match their performance from 2006.

2008 – Obama’s First Presidential Election

Now, let’s consider what it would look like if Democrats performed really well in 2026.

In 2008, Barack Obama was elected president, following public backlash to Bush’s disastrous War in Iraq and the Great Recession.

Democrats also performed incredibly well in the US House, where they won 257 seats.

Democrats would need to flip 42 House seats to perform as well as they did in 2008.

Democrats would need to win all Solid D, Likely D, Lean D, Tossup, Lean R, and Likely R races, as well as seven Solid R races, to win 257 seats, and match their performance in 2008.

I believe the country is doing far worse in Trump’s second term than it did at this point in his first term.

So it’s possible Democrats could outperform their 2018 numbers in the House.

But I believe it would be quite a stretch for Democrats to win as many seats as they did in 2008.

1992 – Bill Clinton’s First Presidential Election

In 1992, Bill Clinton was elected President.

I was born in August 1991, so I was one-year-old at the time.

In 1992, Democrats won 258 House seats, one more than they won in 2008.

Democrats would need to flip 43 seats to match the size of their majority after 1992.

That means they would need to win eight Solid Republican seats.

1990 – George H.W. Bush’s Midterm

Democrats won 267 seats in the House in 1990, the midterm election during George H.W. Bush’s one-term presidency.

Democrats would need to flip 52 seats to match the majority they won in 1990.

That means they would need to win 17 Solid Republican seats in 2026.

That’s definitely not happening.

What you can do

No one paying attention can deny we are living through a time of profound importance in the United States.

The crisis presented by Trump’s erratic and authoritarian presidency creates both hardship, and opportunity.

We are truly living through history, and now is not the time to sit on the sidelines.

Get involved, and do what you can to nudge the great tides of history in the right direction.

The next big No Kings protest will be held on Saturday, March 28.

Make a sign, and attend a protest near you.

There will be no shortage of outrages to protest.

If you are interested in competitive elections in your state, let me know.

I can tell you if there are any competitive Senate, House, or Governor elections in your state, and when your state’s primary elections will be held.

We should all cast informed votes in every election we can. 

And campaigns are always looking for volunteers.

Finally, if you want Democrats to win as many races as possible in 2026, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund, which raises money for Democrats in important and competitive elections, nationwide.

If you find the actions of Trump and his administration to be truly unacceptable and unconscionable, now is the time to get involved.