Last year, I raised funds for Democrats running for seats in the Kansas Legislature.
I created and promoted an Act Blue fund called, “Breaking the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature.”
Five people collectively donated $618.33 to the fund.
That money was wisely spent on candidates whose races were decided by narrow margins.
87% of donations went to candidates whose races were decided by less than 6%.
Money donated to the fund was split evenly between the candidates I chose to include.
I adjusted the candidates in the fund based on the results of the Kansas Primary election and campaign finance reports.
I raised funds for 16 Democratic candidates last year.
Thirteen ran for seats in the Kansas House, and three ran for seats in the Kansas Senate.
The following table lists these candidates based on the final margin in their races, with the closest elections listed first.
You can click on the tables in this article to view larger versions of them.
Ultimately, Democrats did not break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature in 2024.
Instead, Republicans gained three seats in the Kansas House, and two seats in the Kansas Senate.
I covered the results of the 2024 elections for the Kansas Legislature in a previous article.
This article is part of an ongoing series that explores the results of the 2024 general election.
Previously, I covered the results of elections for the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. I also evaluated the accuracy of my predictions for the US Senate elections.
Even though Democrats lost seats in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature, money donated to the fund went to candidates whose races were decided by narrow margins.
28% of donations went to races that were decided by less than 2%.
59% of donations went to races that were decided by less than 5%.
87% of donations went to races that were decided by less than 6%.
Only three candidates supported by the fund ran in races that didn’t end up being competitive.
Eli Woody, Dena Sattler, and Bill Hammond each lost races to Republican candidates by more than 10%.
They were included because the results of previous elections indicated their elections might be competitive in 2024.
Bill Hammond ran in District 117, in Johnson and Douglas counties, which the Republican candidate won in 2022 by 3.9%.
Eli Woody ran in District 33, in Wyandotte County, which the Republican candidate won in 2022 by 5.6%.
You can see these results in the table below, which displays the closest Kansas House races, organized by the 2022 margin, with the closest races listed first.
Last year was the first election for the Kansas Senate after redistricting, which made it more challenging to predict which Senate races would be competitive.
In 2024, Dena Sattler ran against Rick Kloos in the Kansas Senate.
In 2020, Rick Kloos (R) defeated incumbent Democrat Anthony Hensley in Kansas Senate District 19 by 2.1%.
That was the closest election for the Kansas Senate in 2020.
For the 2024 election, Kloos was redistricted into Kansas Senate District 3.
In 2024, Kloos won reelection in District 3 by 14.8%.
District 3 is located in Osage, Douglas, Franklin, and Shawnee counties.
We’ve examined whether donations to the fund went to competitive races. But it’s also worth exploring if the fund should have included races that I failed to anticipate would be competitive.
I raised funds for all 11 Kansas House races where the margin was decided by less than 6% in 2024.
That’s a really impressive result.
The most competitive Kansas House races from 2024 are shown in the table below, which is organized by the 2024 margin, with the closest races listed first.
The bottom two races weren't competitive in 2024, but they were in 2022.
I raised funds for 2 of the 6 Kansas Senate races where the margin was decided by less than 6% in 2024.
Specifically, I raised funds for Usha Reddi, in Riley County, and Andrew Mall, in Johnson County.
That’s not as impressive as my record for predicting competitive Kansas House races, but it’s still fairly good, considering my foresight was obscured by the fog of redistricting.
This table shows the results of the most competitive Kansas Senate elections.
Because I adjusted the candidates included in the fund over time, different candidates received different amounts from the fund.
This table lists the candidates based on the amount they received from the fund, with the candidates that received the most listed first.
Personally, I donated $380 to Democratic candidates running for the Kansas Legislature.
I will discuss my personal political donations in a future article.
Including my personal donations, we raised a total of $998.33 for Democratic candidates running for the Kansas Legislature in 2024.
That’s less than $2 short of $1,000.
Only two of the 16 candidates that received money from the fund won their races.
Nikki McDonald won in District 49, in Johnson County, by 1.2%.
Dan Osman won in District 48, in Johnson County, by 5.8%.
84% of donations to the fund went to candidates who lost.
16% of donations went to candidates who won.
81% of donations to the fund went to candidates running for the Kansas House.
19% of donations went to candidates running for the Kansas Senate.
Four people donated to the fund in August. They donated the following amounts: $458.33, $25, $25, and $100.
One person donated $10 to the fund in October.
98% of the funds were donated in August, and 2% were donated in October.
I have already begun raising funds for Democrats running in competitive elections in 2025 and 2026.
You can donate to Democratic candidates running in those races through the Democratic Victory Fund.
I wrote about many of the candidates included in the Democratic Victory Fund in an article I published earlier this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment