Wednesday, October 30, 2024

My 2024 Presidential Predictions

  

Predictions are a fool’s game, but let’s play anyway.

In this article, I predict how the swing states will vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

More importantly, this article provides a tour of the political dynamics in the swing states that will determine the outcome of the presidential race.

Even if my predictions miss the mark, I believe you will still find my political analysis informative.

 

 

But before I share my predictions, a few words of caution.

The key races in this election are incredibly close.

I would not be surprised if any, or all, of my predictions don’t come to pass.

You should be wary of believing someone who expresses unearned confidence in their knowledge of things they can’t possibly know.

With that in mind, I view these predictions as more of a fun game than anything else.

 

 

 

Overall, I predict a great night for Democrats.

Some may object to my predictions on the basis that they will lull Democrats into a false sense of security, leading them to abandon their efforts in the critical final stretch of the campaign.

But fear can lead to paralysis as easily as complacency.

If you’re planning to go above and beyond by door knocking, phone banking, or donating money to candidates, don't let my rosy predictions dissuade you from doing so.

 

And obviously, you should vote regardless of whether your vote will determine the outcome of an election.

Voting is more than just a right, it’s a civic duty.

Just make sure that when you vote, you make informed decisions in the races you’re voting on.

 

 

 

Some may say that my rosy predictions demonstrate I am merely predicting my preferred outcomes, rather than engaging in a sober analysis of the relevant facts at hand.

Based on how well I believe Democrats will perform in this election, that critique is probably correct.

 

 

Now, let’s get to those predictions, shall we?

 

 

 

 

Prediction:

Kamala Harris will win the Presidential Race

 

 

Polling in the swing states is very close, and these contests could easily go either way.

Here are three reasons I believe these states will break in Harris’s favor.

 

First, I believe Harris has ran a more strategic campaign.

Harris worked to address her perceived weaknesses as a candidate on immigration and the economy.

Harris picked a charismatic and likable vice presidential candidate, Tim Walz, to join her on the ticket. 

 

Trump, meanwhile, has called for using the alien enemies act, proclaimed the dangers of the enemy within, and continued to defend his Jan. 6 insurrection against Congress.

The last few days have been dominated by news of Trump’s former advisors describing him as a fascist.

Trump chose a strongly disliked vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, who regularly criticized the personal life choices of childless cat ladies.

Overall, I believe Harris has conducted a more effective campaign than Trump.

 

 

Second, I believe there are a small, but significant, number of “shy abortion voters,” who will vote to protect abortion rights, and in favor of candidates who will protect abortion rights, but who won’t talk to pollsters about their political preferences over the phone.

 

 

Third, Democratic senate candidates in presidential swing states are outperforming Harris in the polls.

I believe voters who support Democratic senate candidates, but who are undecided on Harris, will come around to supporting Harris when they cast their ballot.

 

 

I believe these three factors will result in Harris outperforming polling averages in the swing states by about 2%.

That’s not a lot, but when the race is this close, even a small shift can be decisive.

 

 

 

 

Presidential Swing States

 

I predict eight states will be decided by less than 5%.

They are Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Florida.

Florida is the only state on this list that might catch readers by surprise.

538’s polling average predicts Trump will win Florida by 6.4%.

I predict “shy abortion voters” and other factors, such as late deciders, will adjust the margin in Harris’s favor by 2%.

That would mean Trump would win the state by 4.4%, which is less than a 5% margin.

 

 

 

 

Swing State Margins

 

Here are my predictions for the presidential margins in the eight swing states mentioned above, rounded to the nearest percent.

 

 


 

You can click on the table above to enlarge it.  

 

 

 

 

Michigan

 

I predict Harris will win Michigan by 3%.

 

Harris leads in 538’s Michigan polling average by 0.9%.

Elissa Slotkin (D) leads 538’s polling average in the Michigan Senate race by 3.9%.

 

Abortion rights are a key issue in the presidential campaign.

Michigan voters adopted a constitutional amendment that establishes a right to reproductive freedom, including abortion, in 2022, by a margin of 13%.

 

Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 2.8%.

 

 

 

 

Nevada

 

I predict Harris will win Nevada by 2%.

 

538’s Nevada polling average is dead even.

Jacky Rosen (D) leads in 538’s polling average in the Nevada Senate race by 7%.

Nevada is also voting on a constitutional amendment that will protect abortion rights, which will boost turnout from abortion rights supporters.

 

Biden won Nevada in 2020 by 2.4%.

 

 

 

 

Pennsylvania

 

Pennsylvania is the state most likely to determine the outcome of the US Presidential Election.

I predict Harris will win Pennsylvania by 2%.

 

Trump leads in 538’s Pennsylvania polling average by 0.5%.

Bob Casey Jr. (D) leads 538’s polling average for the Pennsylvania Senate race by 3.6%.

 

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by 1.2%.

 

 

 

 

 

Wisconsin

 

I predict Harris will win Wisconsin by 1%.

 

Harris leads in 538’s Wisconsin polling average by 0.7%.

Tammy Baldwin (D) leads in 538’s polling average in the Wisconsin Senate race by 2.1%.

 

There is a recent Wisconsin election that’s worth bearing in mind as well.

Janet Protasiewicz, the liberal candidate in the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court Election, won her race by 11%.

That election shows the strength of Democrats, and supporters of abortion rights, in this critical swing state.

 

Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by 0.6%.

 

 

 

 

North Carolina

 

I predict Harris will win North Carolina by 1%.

 

Trump leads in 538’s North Carolina polling average by 1.1%.

Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by 1.4%.

 

Republicans have absolutely shot themselves in the foot in North Carolina.

Their candidates for Governor and an elected education position are awful.

 

Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for Governor, has called himself a Black Nazi, said he would buy slaves himself if slavery were legal, and has called LGBT people “filth”.

 

538 has not created an official polling average for the North Carolina Governor’s race.

Nevertheless, Josh Stein (D) leads in all of the 10 most recent polls published by 538, by an average of 15%.

 

 

Michele Morrow, the Republican nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction, called for President Obama to be executed by firing squad, and said his execution should be televised.

“The News & Observer,” a newspaper based in Raleigh, North Carolina, reported on Oct. 21 that multiple polls show Mo Green (D) with only a 2 to 3 percent lead over Michele Morrow (R).

 

 

Trump is himself a deeply objectionable figure.

Trump sent a mob to attack Congress to overturn his loss in a free and fair election.

He was found responsible in civil court for sexually assaulting E. Jean Carroll in a department store.

And he was found guilty of 34 felonies in criminal court for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels to hide a sexual affair from voters prior to the 2016 presidential election.

 

Moderate Republican voters in North Carolina are going to have a really hard time justifying getting out to vote when these are the candidates their party has chosen for three important elections.

These horrible candidates also give Democrats more than enough material to drive turnout and persuade swing voters in North Carolina.

 

If you are a current or former Republican, and you are horrified by what your party has become, we’d love to have you join the Democratic Party.

The only criteria are that you have to believe Nazis are bad, and that Hitler was the bad guy in World War II.

 

There’s one more reason why Democrats will be working especially hard to win votes in North Carolina.

Democrats only need to flip one seat in either chamber of the North Carolina Legislature to break the state’s Republican Supermajority.

 

 

 

 

Georgia

 

I predict Harris will win Georgia by 0%.

I’ll admit, that sounds confusing.

So I’ll elaborate.

I predict Harris will win Georgia, and rounding to the nearest percent, I predict the margin of victory in the state will be 0%.

This effectively means I’m predicting Harris will win by less than 0.5%.

That’s a fairly precise prediction.

For this prediction, it’s possible I call the margin correctly, 0%, but the winner incorrectly.

 

Trump leads 538’s Georgia polling average by 1.8%.

 

 

Georgia has a history of voting against Trump.

In 2020, Biden won Georgia by 0.2%.

 

In 2020, Georgia elected two Democratic US Senators.

Raphael Warnock (D) won his runoff by 2.1%.

Jon Ossoff (D) won his runoff by 1.2%.

Trump endorsed their Republican opponents.

 

In 2022, Georgia Republican voters renominated Brian Kemp as Governor, and Brad Raffensperger for Secretary of State, even after these Republicans stood up to Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

Trump endorsed Kemp’s and Raffensperger’s Republican primary opponents.

Kemp and Raffensperger went on to win reelection.

 

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) won his reelection runoff in 2022 by 2.8%.

Trump endorsed Warnock’s Republican opponent.

 

 

Abortion rights will likely be top of mind for many Georgia voters.

The Georgia Supreme Court is considering a legal challenge to Georgia’s abortion ban, which prevents women from obtaining an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy.

At least two women in Georgia, Amber Thurman and Candi Miller, have died after they couldn’t access legal abortions and timely medical care in their state.

Past elections have shown a large majority of Americans support abortion rights, and Trump appointed the Supreme Court Justices that allowed the conservative majority on the court to overturn Roe v. Wade.

A federal law known as the Comstock Act gives the president the power to ban the mailing of a drug used in medication abortions.

This gives the president the power to ban a widespread form of first trimester abortions.

The stakes for abortion rights in this election are high, and after Roe v. Wade was overturned, voters, especially female voters, appreciate that reality.

 

 

 

 

Arizona

 

I predict Harris will win Arizona by 0%.

Once again, this means I predict Harris will win the state, and the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0%.

 

Trump leads 538’s Arizona polling average by 2.2%.

Ruben Gallego (D) leads 538’s polling average for the Arizona Senate race by 6%.

Arizona will be voting on a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights this year.

 

 

Arizona could easily go either way in the presidential race.

Arizona, like North Carolina, is a state Republicans would easily win if they could avoid nominating exceptionally objectionable candidates.

But this is one of the states where they just can’t get out of their own way. 

 

Kari Lake, the Republican nominee for the Arizona US Senate race, is a passionate supporter of the big lie that Donald Trump actually won the 2020 presidential election, but that the election was stolen from him.

Kari Lake refused to accept the outcome of her own 2022 race for Arizona Governor, which she lost by 0.7%.

I wrote an editorial opposing Kari Lake in 2022.

 

 

Trump could easily win Arizona, or any of the swing states mentioned above.

Trump’s most persuasive arguments with voters tend to be on immigration and the economy.

Swing voters could support Trump because their xenophobic attitudes lead them to support the candidate they believe will crack down harder on illegal immigration, which they wrongly blame for various economic and social ills.

Swing voters could also support Trump because they are upset at the high prices of groceries, which they blame on inflation and the economic policy of the Biden administration, to which Harris belongs.

This could be true despite the fact that overall, the economy is doing well, unemployment is down, and we avoided a serious recession after COVID due to effective use of Keynesian economic policy. 

Trump’s economic agenda of across the across-the-board tariffs would make groceries and other goods more expensive, effectively raising taxes on average Americans.

Trump also wants to cut taxes for rich people by extending the Trump Tax Cuts.

Together, these policies mean tax cuts for the rich, and tax hikes for the poor and middle class.

Trump’s tax policies would help the rich, and Harris’s would help everyone else.

But for some reason, voters still prefer Trump on the economy.

 

 

 

 

Florida

 

I predict Trump will win Florida by 4%.

 

Trump leads 538’s Florida polling average by 6.4%.

Rick Scott (R) leads 538’s polling average in the Florida Senate election by 4.6%.

There is an abortion rights amendment on the ballot in Florida.

Trump won Florida in 2020 by 3.4%.

 

Florida is a quintessentially Republican state.

In 2022, Marco Rubio (R) was reelected in the Florida Senate race by 16%.

In 2022, Florida reelected its tyrant Governor, Ron DeSantis (R), by 19%.

 

 

 

Electoral College

 

Adding up my state-by-state forecasts, I predict Harris will receive 319 electoral votes, and Trump will receive 219 electoral votes.

 

I will share my predictions for the US Senate, US House, Kansas Legislature, and Abortion Amendment elections in my next article.

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment