Midterm Math: House Edition

Between Trump’s War on Iran, Trump’s tariffs, and the murder of American citizens by agents of the federal government, things are not going well in Trump’s America.

The horrors committed by an aspiring autocrat are bad for the country, but they also create a favorable political environment for Democrats in this year’s upcoming midterm elections.

Today, we’re going to examine how well Democrats might perform in the US House in 2026.

In the process, we will discuss elections where Democrats have performed well in the US House, from 1990 to the present.

Baseline

 

Democrats won 215 US House seats in 2024.

This will be the baseline for comparisons that discuss how many additional seats Democrats need to win in 2026 to perform as well as they have in previous elections, when Democrats performed well in the House.

I will rely on a table of US House results for elections from 1990 to 2024, and its accompanying graphs, that I first published in Republicans retain House control in January 2025, about the results of the 2024 House elections.

I originally obtained the data in that table from Wikipedia, which I believe to be a reliable source for data about historical election results.

I will also use the forecasts for US House races compiled by the Cook Political Report.

Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball publish forecasts for various races that describe how likely Democrats or Republicans are to win, using tossup, lean, and likely designations.

The expert forecasts from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are free and open to the public.

It’s a lot easier to use one of these resources for my political analysis, at a time, than to try to use both simultaneously.

I primarily used forecasts from Sabato’s Crystal Ball during my coverage of elections in 2024.

This article will instead use forecasts from the Cook Political Report.

Here are the forecasts for US House races from the Cook Political Report, as of March 12, 2026.

Some of the races in the screenshot above are described as open seats, which means the elected official currently representing the district is not running for reelection, at least not in the district they currently represent.

The results of the 2025 elections and the results of recent special elections indicate Democrats are positioned to perform well in the 2026 midterms.

Now, let’s explore just how well Democrats could do in 2026 in the US House, by examining several scenarios, in ascending levels of optimism for Democrats.

The Bare Minimum

There are 435 seats in the US House of Representatives.

That means 218 votes are required to obtain a majority in the US House, if all members are present and voting.

Democrats won 215 US House seats in 2024, which means they only need to flip three seats to win a majority in the chamber, securing House control.

But given the current political climate, fueled by a narcissistic, idiotic, tyrannical buffoon of a president, Democrats will likely do much better than that.

Cook’s Median Prediction

The Cook Political Report considers 212 House seats to be Solid Democratic, Likely Democratic, or Lean Democratic.

Cook considers 206 House seats to be Solid Republican, Likely Republican, or Lean Republican.

Cook classifies 17 House seats as tossups.

If we divide these tossup races evenly, Democrats and Republicans would each receive 8.5 additional seats.

This analysis is for Cook’s median prediction, which produces a fractional result.

In practice, a seat would not be split by partisan affiliation, as the following analysis might suggest.

Adding these tossups to the partisan totals, Cook’s median prediction is for Democrats to win 220.5 seats, and Republicans to win 214.5 seats.

This would give Democrats only two, and a half, more votes than the 218 they need to secure the House majority, if all members are present and voting.

Democrats won 215 seats in 2024, so they would only need to flip five, and a half, seats to reach Cook’s current median prediction.

Put another way, Cook is currently predicting that Democrats will only flip five, and a half, House seats in 2026.

Given the current political climate, I believe the Cook Political Report is likely underestimating Democratic chances in House races in 2026.

But it’s also worth bearing in mind that they are experts in election forecasting, and I am not.

2020 – Democrats’ Most Recent Majority

In 2020, Joe Biden was elected president, following Trump’s catastrophic mismanagement of the COVID pandemic.

That was the most recent election where Democrats won control of the US House.

In 2020, Democrats won 222 House seats, and Republicans won 213.

Coincidentally, those numbers exactly flipped in 2022, when Republicans won 222 seats and Democrats won 213.

Democrats would need to flip 7 seats in 2026 to win as many seats as they won in 2020, the last time they held majority control of the House.

2018 – Trump’s First Midterm

Democrats performed particularly well in the US House in 2018, during Trump’s first midterm.

In 2018, Democrats won 235 seats in the US House.

Democrats would need to flip 20 seats in 2026 to perform as well as they did in 2018.

I find this outcome to be the most likely of the historical comparisons we will discuss today.

I created the graphs in this article using Flourish, a website that allows users to create compelling visual aids.  

 

Let’s examine what this would look like in practice.

To win 235 seats in 2026, Democrats would need to win all of the Solid D, Likely D, Lean D, Tossup, and Lean R races, as well as two Likely R seats.

I find the chances that Democrats perform as well as they did in 2018, in Trump’s first midterm, to be a reasonable prediction.

Therefore, I believe Democrats are positioned to perform better in 2026 than Cook’s forecasts predict. 

But that being said, I have consistently been optimistic about Democrats’ political chances, even in elections where Democrats didn’t end up doing particularly well.

Comparing 2018 and 2006

In many ways, Trump’s reelection in 2024 feels reminiscent of George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004.

So it would seem right that Democrats would be positioned to perform well in Trump’s second midterm, just as they did in Bush’s second midterm.

But Democrats actually won more seats in the US House in 2018, than they did in 2006.

Democrats won 235 House seats in 2018, whereas Democrats only won 233 House seats in 2006.

If Democrats perform as well in the House in 2026 as they did in 2006, they would have two fewer seats than they had after 2018.

Democrats would need to flip 18 seats to win a majority as large as they had after the 2006 election.

Democrats would need to win all of the Solid D, Likely D, Lean D, Tossup, and Lean R races to win 233 seats, and match their performance from 2006.

2008 – Obama’s First Presidential Election

Now, let’s consider what it would look like if Democrats performed really well in 2026.

In 2008, Barack Obama was elected president, following public backlash to Bush’s disastrous War in Iraq and the Great Recession.

Democrats also performed incredibly well in the US House, where they won 257 seats.

Democrats would need to flip 42 House seats to perform as well as they did in 2008.

Democrats would need to win all Solid D, Likely D, Lean D, Tossup, Lean R, and Likely R races, as well as seven Solid R races, to win 257 seats, and match their performance in 2008.

I believe the country is doing far worse in Trump’s second term than it did at this point in his first term.

So it’s possible Democrats could outperform their 2018 numbers in the House.

But I believe it would be quite a stretch for Democrats to win as many seats as they did in 2008.

1992 – Bill Clinton’s First Presidential Election

In 1992, Bill Clinton was elected President.

I was born in August 1991, so I was one-year-old at the time.

In 1992, Democrats won 258 House seats, one more than they won in 2008.

Democrats would need to flip 43 seats to match the size of their majority after 1992.

That means they would need to win eight Solid Republican seats.

1990 – George H.W. Bush’s Midterm

Democrats won 267 seats in the House in 1990, the midterm election during George H.W. Bush’s one-term presidency.

Democrats would need to flip 52 seats to match the majority they won in 1990.

That means they would need to win 17 Solid Republican seats in 2026.

That’s definitely not happening.

What you can do

No one paying attention can deny we are living through a time of profound importance in the United States.

The crisis presented by Trump’s erratic and authoritarian presidency creates both hardship, and opportunity.

We are truly living through history, and now is not the time to sit on the sidelines.

Get involved, and do what you can to nudge the great tides of history in the right direction.

The next big No Kings protest will be held on Saturday, March 28.

Make a sign, and attend a protest near you.

There will be no shortage of outrages to protest.

If you are interested in competitive elections in your state, let me know.

I can tell you if there are any competitive Senate, House, or Governor elections in your state, and when your state’s primary elections will be held.

We should all cast informed votes in every election we can. 

And campaigns are always looking for volunteers.

Finally, if you want Democrats to win as many races as possible in 2026, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund, which raises money for Democrats in important and competitive elections, nationwide.

If you find the actions of Trump and his administration to be truly unacceptable and unconscionable, now is the time to get involved.