My 2024 Senate Predictions

 

I predict Republicans will win control of the US Senate.

I really want Democrats to retain control of the Senate, but I don’t believe they will.

After this election, I predict Republicans will hold 51 seats, and Democrats will hold 49.

 

 

 

 

I predict the Senate margin will be less than 5% in eight states: Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

For each of these eight races, here are my predicted winners, and the margin I believe they will win by, rounded to the nearest percent.

 

 

 

You can click on the tables above to enlarge them.

As always, these key races are very close, and I would not be surprised if my predictions don’t come to pass.

 

 

I believe Democrats will outperform their Senate polls by 2% in states with abortion amendments on the ballot, and by 1% in states without them.

I believe “shy abortion voters” will turn out to vote for abortion rights, and for candidates who support abortion rights, but won’t share their preferences with pollsters.

 

I plan to discuss the dynamics of the closest Senate races in subsequent articles.

We’ll see how many of those I complete before the election.

 

 

If you haven't already, I encourage you to check out my predictions for the presidential race and down ballot elections.