How competitive is Kansas?

 

Kansas has a reputation of being a reliably Republican state, especially in presidential elections.

But Kansas does sometimes elect Democrats in statewide races, most notably for Governor.

So how politically competitive is Kansas?

The answer depends on which office we’re talking about.

The following table lists the average partisan margin of victory for statewide elections in Kansas, based on the office the election is for.

These averages were calculated using data publicly available on the Kansas Secretary of State’s website, for elections from 2004 to 2024.

Governor elections are the most competitive in Kansas, followed by elections for Attorney General.

Presidential elections are next, followed by elections for Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, and US Senate. 

 

Governor

 

The most competitive elections in Kansas are for Governor.

 

Democrats have won three of the last five Kansas Governor’s races.

Across those five elections, Republicans won on average by 2.0%.





Recent Kansas Governor elections have been especially competitive.

Each of the last three Kansas Governor’s races have been decided by less than 6%.

I wrote an article about Laura Kelly’s narrow victory in the 2022 Kansas Governor’s race.

Attorney General

The next most competitive elections in Kansas are for Attorney General.

 

Republicans won four of the five most recent Kansas Attorney General elections.

A Democrat won one of the five most recent Kansas Attorney General elections. 

Across those five elections, Republicans won on average by 9.8%.






In 2022, Kris Kobach, a Republican, defeated Chris Mann, a Democrat, by only 1.6%. 

This year’s Attorney General election in Kansas will be a rematch between the same two candidates.

President

Kansas has voted for the Republican candidate for president in each of the six most recent presidential elections.

Across those six elections, Kansas voted for the Republican candidate by an average of 18.9%.

Since 2004, the closest presidential election in Kansas was the 2020 presidential election, when Trump won Kansas by 14.7%.







Kansas has voted Republican in the past 15 presidential elections, according to Wikipedia.

Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since it voted for Lyndon Johnson in 1964, when he ran against Barry Goldwater.

That means it has been 62 years since a Democrat has won Kansas in a presidential election.







Kansas has voted for Donald Trump in each of the past three presidential elections. 

On average, Trump has won Kansas by 17.1%.

Secretary of State

Republicans have won each of the five most recent Secretary of State races in Kansas. 

 

Republicans have won these elections by an average of 20.0%.

Since 2006, the closest Secretary of State election in Kansas was in 2018, when Scott Schwab won by 8.7%.

 

That election was a three-way race between Republican Scott Schwab, Democrat Brian McClendon, and Libertarian Rob Hodgkinson.


I wrote an article about Scott Schwab’s reelection in 2022.

State Treasurer

Republicans have won each of the five most recent State Treasurer elections in Kansas. 

 

Republicans have won these elections by an average of 21.8%.

Since 2006, the closest State Treasurer election in Kansas was in 2022, when Steven Johnson won by 12.6%.
 

That election was a three-way race between Republican Steven Johnson, Democrat Lynn Rogers, and Libertarian Steve Roberts.

 

 

Rogers was elected lieutenant governor in 2018 on a gubernatorial ticket alongside Laura Kelly, who was elected governor.
 

Rogers served as lieutenant governor from Jan. 2019 to Jan. 2021, when Gov. Kelly appointed Rogers to serve as State Treasurer, after Republican Jake LaTurner was elected to the US House in 2020.

 

 

In the 2022 election, both Johnson and Rogers were well qualified for the position of State Treasurer.
 

Even though Rogers lost, he outperformed previous Democratic State Treasurer candidates because voters remembered he had served as Kelly’s lieutenant governor, and he was an appointed incumbent.
 

I voted for Rogers, but I was unimpressed by his political skills as a campaigner in the 2022 State Treasurer election.
 

I wrote an article about the 2022 Kansas State Treasurer election, where you can learn more about the race.

Insurance Commissioner

Republicans have won each of the five most recent Insurance Commissioner races in Kansas.

 

In one of those elections, the Republican ran unopposed in the general election.

 

Republicans won the other four elections by an average of 26.3%.

 

Since 2006, the closest election for Insurance Commissioner took place in 2014, when Republican Ken Selzer won by 23.0%.

I covered the 2022 Kansas Insurance Commissioner election and its results.

Senator

Republicans have won each of the seven most recent US Senate elections in Kansas.  

 

Republicans have won those elections by an average of 26.3%.

Kansas has been represented exclusively by Republicans in the US Senate for 87 years.

 

The most recent Democrat to represent Kansas in the US Senate was George McGill, who served from Dec. 1930 to Jan. 1939.

McGill was elected to the US Senate in 1930 and 1932.
 

That means it has been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democrat to the US Senate.
 

McGill lost reelection in 1938.




Not all Republicans perform equally well in US Senate elections in Kansas.
 

Jerry Moran has performed better in US Senate elections than either Roger Marshall or Pat Roberts.
 

I wrote about about Jerry Moran’s reelection in 2022.




Since 2004, the closest US Senate election in Kansas took place in 2014, when Pat Roberts, a Republican, defeated Greg Orman, an independent, and Randall Batson, a Libertarian.
 

Roberts won the 2014 election by 10.6%.




In 2020, Roger Marshall, a Republican, was elected to the US Senate, for the first time, by 11.4%.
 

Marshall ran against Barbara Bollier, a Democrat, and Jason Buckley, a Libertarian.

Roger Marshall is up for reelection this year.

How you can help Kansas Democrats

 

This year, I am raising money for Democrats in competitive races, nationwide, through the Democratic Victory Fund.
 

I am currently raising money for Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson, who are running for Kansas Governor.
 

I am also raising money for Christy Davis, who is running for the US Senate in Kansas.
 

If Davis wins the Democratic Primary, she will run against incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall in the general election.




By default, donations to the Democratic Victory Fund are split evenly between the featured candidates, but donors can choose to make directed donations to specific candidates within the fund, instead.
 

So, if you want to specifically support the candidates from Kansas, you can do so.




I have already raised $100.63 for Chris Mann, who is running against Kris Kobach in the Kansas Attorney General election.
 

Since I have met my fundraising goal for Chris Mann, I have rotated him out of the Democratic Victory Fund.

Candidates have until June 1 to file their candidacy for the 2026 Kansas Primary, according to the Kansas Secretary of State's website.

 

There are many winnable State House races for the Kansas Legislature where a Democrat hasn’t filed to run. 

 

That being said, the filing deadline is still a month away.

Last year, I discussed the most competitive Kansas House seats, and you can check the candidate list from the Kansas Secretary of State’s website to see if any Democrats are running for a particular seat.

If you live near a competitive district, you might try to convince a Democrat to run for the position. 

 

If you live in the district, or you are willing to move to the district, you could also consider running for the position, yourself.




I plan to share an ActBlue fundraising form to raise money for Kansas candidates, including candidates for the Kansas Legislature, once we are closer to the filing deadline for the primary election.




This isn’t the first time I’ve compared the competitiveness of Kansas elections, based on the office the election is for.

You can read a similar article I wrote in 2022 about partisan advantage in Kansas elections.