How Competitive are Kansas Congressional Races?

 

Previously, we examined the competitiveness of statewide elections are in Kansas.

But how competitive are the four Kansas congressional districts?

Today, we will explore the competitiveness of Kansas congressional districts by examining the results of previous elections.

This table shows the average partisan margin of victory, from 2016 to 2024, for each Kansas congressional district.

This period begins with Trump’s first presidential election in 2016, so the table shows the average result in each district during the Trump era of American politics.

 

Democrats are favored in the Kansas Third Congressional District.

Republicans are favored in the Kansas First, Fourth, and Second congressional districts.

The Kansas Third is the most competitive, followed by the Second, Fourth, and First districts.

Here is a map of the Congressional Districts in Kansas, which I found on Wikipedia.

Attribution:

By Nebraskan fellow - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=121276590 

The Kansas First is green.

The Kansas Second is blue.

The Kansas Third is yellow.

The Kansas Fourth is purple.

The Kansas Third — A Democratic District

Kansas is currently represented by two Republicans in the US Senate, Roger Marshall and Jerry Moran.

Kansas is represented by three Republicans in the US House: Tracey Mann, Derek Schmidt, and Ron Estes.

The only Democrat elected in Kansas, to either chamber of Congress, is Sharice Davids, who represents the Kansas Third Congressional District in the US House.

Let’s begin by examining the results of elections in the Kansas Third, from 2004 to 2024.

During this time, the Kansas Third was represented by Dennis Moore (D), Kevin Yoder (R), and Sharice Davids (D).

Across the 11 most recent elections, held in the Kansas Third, the average margin has been a Democratic victory by 1.3%.

That’s about as close as you can get.

Next, let’s examine elections in the Kansas Third, from 2016 to 2024. 

Republican Kevin Yoder won in 2016, but Democrat Sharice Davids has won every election since then.

The average margin, from 2016 to 2024, in the Kansas Third has been a Democratic victory by 6.4%. 

Finally, let’s examine the results of Sharice Davids’s elections.

Davids was first elected in 2018, and she has been elected to Congress four times.

On average, Sharice Davids has won the Kansas Third Congressional District by 10.7%.

The Kansas Third is the most competitive congressional district in Kansas, and it’s really competitive when viewed over a longer time frame.

But Davids has won each of her elections fairly comfortably, and she won each of her three most recent elections by more than 10%. 

In 2022, Sharice Davids won reelection even though Republicans in the Kansas Legislature gerrymandered her district to defeat her.

Not only did Davids win in 2022, she won by a larger margin than either of her previous elections to the same position.

In 2026, the Cook Political Report considers the Kansas Third to be Solidly Democratic.

The Kansas Second — Occasionally Competitive

Republican Derek Schmidt represents the Kansas Second Congressional District.

Schmidt was first elected to Congress in 2024, by a margin of 18.9%.

Derek Schmidt ran a transphobic campaign for Kansas governor in 2022.

Schmidt’s gubernatorial campaign was unsuccessful, and incumbent Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly was narrowly reelected by 2.2%.

Let’s begin by examining elections in the Kansas Second, from 2004 to 2024.

Since 2004, the Kansas Second has been represented by Jim Ryun (R), Nancy Boyda (D), Lynn Jenkins (R), Steve Watkins (R), Jake LaTurner (R), and Derek Schmidt (R).

Republicans have won 10 of the 11 most recent elections in the Kansas Second.

Nancy Boyda, a Democrat, won the 2006 election in the Kansas Second, by 3.5%.

The Kansas Second generally isn’t that competitive.

Republicans have won 8 of the 11 most recent elections in the Kansas Second by more than 10%.

By comparison, 3 of the 11 most recent elections were decided by less than 10%.

Boyda, a Democrat, won in 2006 by 3.5%.

Lynn Jenkins, a Republican, won in 2008 by 4.4%.

Steve Watkins, a Republican, won in 2018 by 0.8%.

Nationwide, 2006, 2008, and 2018 were particularly good election years for Democrats.

So, under the right conditions, the Kansas Second can be politically competitive, even though it generally isn’t.

Considering Trump’s constant scandals and abuses of power, 2026 could be a similarly good election year for Democrats.

Now, let’s examine elections in the Kansas Second, from 2016 to 2024. 

Republicans won all five elections in the Kansas Second during the Trump era.

On average, the Republican candidate has won by 15.6%.

Republican Lynn Jenkins had the largest margin of victory when she won by 28.4% in 2016.

Republican Steve Watkins had the smallest margin of victory when he won by only 0.8% in 2018.

In 2026, the Cook Political Report considers the Kansas Second to be Solidly Republican.

The Kansas Fourth — Reliably Republican

The Kansas Fourth is represented by Republican Ron Estes, who was first elected to the US House in a 2017 special election.

President Trump nominated Mike Pompeo, who represented the Kansas Fourth in the US House, to become CIA Director.

Pompeo resigned from the House after the Senate confirmed him to serve as CIA Director.

A special election was held on April 11, 2017, during the first year of Trump’s first term, to fill the vacant seat.

Republican Ron Estes was first elected to Congress in this special election.

Estes won by 6.2%, a considerably smaller margin than the Republican margins of victory during regularly-scheduled elections in the Kansas Fourth.

 

Next, let’s examine regularly-scheduled elections in the Kansas Fourth, from 2004 to 2024.

The tables, averages, and analysis in the rest of this section won’t include the 2017 special election discussed above.

The Kansas Fourth is a solidly Republican district.

Republicans have won each of the 11 most recent regularly-scheduled elections in the Kansas Fourth by more than 18%.

On average, they have won those elections by 28.7%.

Todd Tiahrt (R) achieved the largest margin of victory in 2004, when he won by 35.0%.

Ron Estes (R) had the smallest margin of victory in 2018, when he won by 18.7%.

Now, let’s examine the results from 2016 to 2024.

During the Trump era, Republicans won the Kansas Fourth, in regularly-scheduled elections, on average, by 26.8%.

Mike Pompeo (R) had the largest margin of victory in 2016, when he won by 31.1%.

Ron Estes (R) had the smallest margin of victory in 2018, when he won by 18.7%.

Finally, let’s examine Ron Estes’s elections, from 2018 to 2024.

 

Estes has won these regularly-scheduled elections, on average, by 25.7%.

His narrowest margin was in 2018, when he won by 18.7%.

His largest margin was in 2024, when he won by 30.1%.

During regularly-scheduled elections, the Kansas Fourth is not a competitive district.

In 2026, the Cook Political Report considers the Kansas Fourth to be Solidly Republican.

The Kansas First — Deep Red

The Kansas First is represented by Tracey Mann, who was first elected to Congress in 2020.

Let’s begin by examining elections in the Kansas First, from 2004 to 2024.

 

Republicans have won all 11 of the most recent elections in the Kansas First by more than 35%.

Since 2004, the Kansas First has been represented by Jerry Moran, Tim Huelskamp, Roger Marshall, and Tracey Mann. 

The 2004 election in the Kansas First was between Jerry Moran, a Republican, and Jack Warner, a Libertarian.

Moran (R) received 90.7% of the vote, and Warner (L) received 9.3%.

Moran won by a margin of 81.4%.

Moran’s margin in 2004 is considerably larger than subsequent margins for elections in the district, which generally include a Republican and a Democrat.

Because of this outlier, I did not calculate an average margin of victory from 2004 to 2024 in the Kansas First. 

Another notable entry is for the 2012 election, when Republican Tim Huelskamp ran unopposed.

This next table shows the results of elections in the Kansas First from 2006 to 2024.

During this time, Republicans won the Kansas First by an average margin of 45.1%.

This average does not include Huelskamp’s unopposed election in 2012. 

During this time, the largest margin was in 2008, when Jerry Moran (R) won by 68.6%.

The smallest margin was in 2022, when Tracey Mann (R) won by 35.3%. 

Now, let’s examine the results in the Kansas First, from 2016 to 2024.

During the Trump era, Republicans have won the Kansas First, on average, by 38.4%.

Roger Marshall and Tracey Mann, both Republicans, represented the Kansas First, during this time.

The largest margin was in 2020, when Tracey Mann won by 42.3%. 

The narrowest margin was in 2022, when Tracey Mann won by 35.3%. 

Finally, let’s examine Tracey Mann’s elections, from 2020 to 2024.

Tracey Mann (R) has won these elections, on average, by 38.6%.

His closest race was in 2022, when he won by 35.3%.

To reiterate, the Republican candidate has won the Kansas First in each of the 11 most recent elections by more than 35%.

The Kansas First is a deeply Republican district, and it's not remotely competitive.

In 2026, the Cook Political Report considers the Kansas First to be Solidly Republican. 

What You Can Do

None of the Kansas congressional districts currently have competitive elections.

But there are competitive house races in other states.

This year, I am raising money for Democrats running in important and competitive elections through the Democratic Victory Fund.

I am currently raising money for nine US House candidates in five states.

Texas: Katy Padilla Stout, Bobby Pulido, Vicente Gonzalez

Pennsylvania: Bob Brooks, Janelle Stelson

Florida: Kathy Castor, Darren Soto

Nebraska: Denise Powell

North Carolina: Jamie Ager

The Cook Political Report considers these elections to range from Lean Democrat to Likely Republican.

The names of elected incumbents are followed by (i).

You can support these candidates, and help Democrats win as many House seats as possible, by donating to the Democratic Victory Fund.