Midterm Math: Senate Edition

 

If you appreciate this article, you can support my coverage of the 2026 elections on Patreon.

The race for Senate control is highly competitive.

In this article, I will discuss the 10 most competitive Senate elections, which will determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate next year.

Before I begin, a few disclaimers.

Categorizing the competitiveness of elections is an inherently subjective task.

You should consider the accuracy of my previous election predictions when deciding how reliable you believe my political forecasting to be.

I will briefly explain how I have chosen my designations for each of the races in this article.

But I am a proud Democrat, and you should assume my forecasts will likely overly favor Democrats.

That certainly was the case for my predictions in 2024.

But, Trump’s constant abuses of power and mismanagement of the economy have created a challenging political environment for Republicans, and a favorable one for Democrats.

So, my predictions may be more accurate this year than they were in 2024.

My race designations are based on how close I believe the final margins in these elections will be, rather than exclusively based on where polling indicates these races currently are.

That being said, there is plenty of time for subsequent developments to change the course of the elections I will discuss today.

Without further ado, here are my designations for the most competitive 2026 Senate Races.

I will discuss these races, beginning with the least competitive, and ending with the most competitive.

I consider races for the Senate to be competitive if I believe the final margin will be less than 10%.

That is true for all 10 races I will discuss today.

Kansas

Kansas is on the outer edge of the competitive Senate Map.

Methodist Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) is running against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R).

I discussed Hamilton, and his strong platform, in a previous article. 

 

Marshall is a conservative Republican who strongly supports President Trump.

Marshall supported Trump’s effort to steal the 2020 Presidential election, and he voted against certifying the electoral college results from Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Marshall voted to acquit Donald Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.

In 2023, Marshall filed legislation to prohibit LGBT Pride Flags from federal buildings after President Joe Biden displayed the Progress Pride flag outside the White House.

Last year, Marshall voted for the Big Ugly Bill, which cut taxes for the rich, cut Medicaid funding for the poor, and increased funding for ICE, the federal agency that conducts immigration enforcement.

Despite the favorable national political environment for Democrats, Kansas is a deeply Republican state.

It has been 62 years since Kansas has voted for a Democrat for President, and 94 years since Kansas has elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson (D) against Barry Goldwater (R).

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, when the state reelected George McGill.

Since 2004, the Republican candidate has won every Senate election in Kansas by more than 10%.

Recent Presidential and Senate elections in Kansas have not been close.

In 2024, Trump won Kansas by 16%.

In 2020, Trump won Kansas by 15%.

In 2016, Trump won Kansas by 21%.

Roger Marshall (R) was first elected to the Senate in 2020, when he ran against State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D).

Marshall won by 11.4%.

In 2022, Sen. Jerry Moran (R) ran for reelection against Mark Holland (D), a methodist pastor and former mayor of Kansas City, Kansas.

Moran won by 23%.

I believe this year presents a more challenging political environment for Republicans than 2020, when Roger Marshall was first elected to the Senate.

This year, I predict Marshall will win by 9%.

That’s closer than a US Senate election has been in Kansas for more than 20 years, but it will be a modest consolation prize for Kansas Democrats who desperately want to defeat Roger Marshall. 

I consider the Kansas Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

Nebraska

I believe the Senate race in Nebraska is more competitive than the one in Kansas, but not by much.

In Nebraska, incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) is running for reelection against independent candidate Dan Osborn.

Senate elections in Nebraska generally aren’t competitive, but Osborn was able to prove himself a formidable challenger in a previous Nebraska Senate election.

In 2024, Dan Osborn ran as an independent against incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who was running for reelection.

Fischer won by only 6.7%.

I discussed Deb Fischer’s voting record in the Senate in an article I published before the election.

I discussed the outcome of the election in an article I wrote about the results of the 2024 Senate Races.

I predict this year’s election will result in a similar margin, with Ricketts winning by about 7%.

I consider the Nebraska Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

The strength of Osborn’s nonperformance in 2024 can be seen by comparing his narrow loss in 2024 to the outcome of other recent Nebraska elections.

In 2024, Pete Ricketts won a special election to complete the term of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, who resigned to become the president of the University of Florida.

In that election, Ricketts (R) ran against University Professor Preston Love Jr. (D).

Ricketts won by 25%.

In 2024, Trump won Nebraska by 20%.

In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19%.

In 2016, Trump won Nebraska by 25%.

It has been 20 years since Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate, and 62 years since Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President.

The last time Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 2006, when the state reelected Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

The last time Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President was in 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson.

North Carolina

Next, let’s examine the races I consider to be Likely Democratic.

In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is running against Michael Whatley, who previously served as the chair of the Republican National Committee, and served as the chair of the North Carolina Republican Party.

Cooper currently leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 8.0%.

Roy Cooper was elected North Carolina Governor in 2016, and he was reelected in 2020.

Republicans have narrowly won North Carolina in recent presidential and senate elections.

In 2024, Trump won North Carolina by 3.2%.

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by 1.3%.

In 2016, Trump won North Carolina by 3.7%.

In 2022, Congressman Ted Budd (R) ran against Cheri Beasley (D), a former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court.

Budd won by 3.2%.

In 2020, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) ran for reelection against former State Senator Cal Cunningham (D).

Tillis won by 1.7%.

These recent wins by Republicans in North Carolina lead me to believe the race will be more slightly more competitive than polling currently suggests.

I predict Roy Cooper will win by about 5%.

I consider the North Carolina Senate Race to be Likely Democrat.

It has been 18 years since North Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate, and 18 years since North Carolina voted for a Democrat for President.

North Carolina last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, when the state elected Kay Hagan.

North Carolina last voted for a Democrat for President in 2008, when the state voted for Barack Obama.

Georgia

In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is running for reelection against Congressman Mike Collins (R).

Ossoff currently leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 7.5%.

Recent presidential and senate elections in Georgia have been highly competitive.

In 2024, Trump won Georgia by 2.2%.

In 2020, Biden won Georgia by 0.2%.

In 2016, Trump won Georgia by 5.1%.

In 2020, Journalist Jon Ossoff ran against incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R).

On Jan. 5, 2021, Ossoff won the runoff election by 1.2%.

In 2020, Baptist Pastor Raphael Warnock ran against appointed incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in a special election.

On Jan. 5, 2021, Warnock won the runoff election by 2.1%.

In 2022, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) ran for reelection against former football player Herschel Walker (R).

Warnock won the runoff election by 2.8%.

I believe the final margin in this year’s Georgia Senate Race will be more competitive than current polling suggests.

I predict Ossoff will win by about 5%.

I consider the Georgia Senate Race to be Likely Democrat.

It has been 10 years since Georgia elected a Republican to the Senate.

Georgia last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2016, when the state reelected Johnny Isakson.

Iowa

In Iowa, Congresswoman Ashley Hinson (R) is running against Josh Turek (D), a State Representative and Wheelchair Basketball Paralympian.

I wrote about Josh Turek’s fascinating life story in a previous article.

Polling indicates the race is highly competitive.

Hinson (R) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.4%.

Republicans have won recent presidential and senate elections in Iowa by larger margins.

In 2024, Trump won Iowa by 13.2%.

In 2020, Trump won Iowa by 8.2%.

In 2016, Trump won Iowa by 9.4%.

But it hasn’t been that long since Iowa voted for a Democrat for president. 

In 2012, Obama won Iowa by 5.8%. 

In 2008, Obama won Iowa by 9.5%. 

In 2022, incumbent Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) ran for reelection against Veteran Michael Franken (D).

Grassley won by 12.2%.

In 2020, incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R) ran for reelection against Theresa Greenfield (D).

Ernst won by 6.6%.

It has been 14 years since Iowa voted for a Democrat for President, and 18 years since Iowa elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Iowa most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, when the state reelected Tom Harkin.

Iowa most recently voted for a Democrat for President in 2012, when the state voted for Barack Obama.

I predict Hinson (R) will win by a larger margin than current polling suggests.

I believe she will win by about 3%.

Therefore, I consider the Iowa Senate Race to be Lean Republican.

Michigan

In Michigan, former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D) is running against former Congressman Mike Rogers (R).

Polling shows the Michigan Senate Race is incredibly close.

El-Sayed leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 0.7%.

Michigan has been a competitive swing state in recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Trump won Michigan by 1.4%.

In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 2.8%.

In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 0.2%.

Recent Michigan Senate elections have also been highly competitive.

In 2024, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) ran against former Congressman Mike Rogers (R).

Slotkin won by 0.3%.

In 2020, incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) ran for reelection against Veteran John James (R).

Peters won by 1.7%.

It has been 32 years since Michigan elected a Republican to the Senate.

The last time Michigan elected a Republican to the Senate was in 1994, when the state elected Spencer Abraham.

While I believe the Michigan Senate Race will be close, I believe El-Sayed will expand his lead as we move farther away from the contentious and competitive Democratic Primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.

I predict El-Sayed will win the general election by about 2%.

I consider the Michigan Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Maine

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R) is running for reelection against former Maine State Senate President Troy Jackson (D).

Jackson (D) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 2.3%.

Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have each won recent statewide federal elections in Maine.

Maine has voted against Trump in each of the three most recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Harris won Maine by 6.9%.

In 2020, Biden won Maine by 9.1%.

In 2016, Clinton won Maine by 3.0%.

It has been 38 years since Maine voted for a Republican for President.

Maine hasn’t voted for a Republican for President since 1988, when the state voted for George H.W. Bush.

In 2024, Independent Sen. Angus King ran for reelection against Demi Kouzounas (R) and David Costello (D).

King won by 17.4%.

In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) ran for reelection against Sara Gideon (D), the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.

Collins won the election by 8.6%.

Susan Collins in a strong candidate, and in a better year for Republicans, she could win reelection.

Collins was reelected in 2020, in the same election when Maine voted for Biden.

But Collins is facing incredibly strong headwinds this year.

Maine has voted against Donald Trump in each of the past three presidential elections.

And the national political environment is devastating for Republicans.

Trump’s narcissistic obsessions contrast with his complete disregard for the cost-of-living concerns of voters, which his policies, particularly his War with Iran and his tariffs, have only made worse.

It is very hard for a Republican candidate, running for either chamber of Congress, to overcome these political realities, in a state or district where Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all have a real chance to win.

I predict Troy Jackson (D) will win the Maine Senate Race by about 2%, as current polling suggests.

Therefore, I consider the Maine Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Alaska

In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is running for reelection against former Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D).

Peltola (D) leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 2.0%.

Trump has won Alaska in the three most recent presidential elections by more than 10%.

In 2024, Trump won Alaska by 13.1%.

In 2020, Trump won Alaska by 10.1%.

In 2016, Trump won Alaska by 14.7%.

It has been 62 years since Alaska voted for a Democrat for President.

The last time Alaska voted for a Democrat for President was in 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson.

Alaska became a state in 1959, and it has participated in 17 presidential elections.

Alaska voted for the Republican candidate in 16 of those elections, and only voted for the Democratic candidates once, in 1964.

Republicans have won recent Senate elections in Alaska.

In 2022, Alaska used ranked-choice voting in its Senate election.

The final round of ranked-choice voting was between two Republicans.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Kelly Tshibaka (R), former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, made it to the final round.

Murkowski was reelected by 7.4%.

In 2020, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) ran for reelection against Doctor Al Gross, an independent who received the nomination of the Democratic Party.

Sullivan won by 12.7%.

It has been 18 years since Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate.

The most recent time Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 2008, when the state elected Mark Begich.

Both Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) have won statewide elections in Alaska.

Sullivan was elected to the Senate in 2014, and he was reelected in 2020.

Alaska has one congressional district that covers the entire state.

Therefore, Peltola was elected to the US House in a statewide election.

Mary Peltola was first elected to the US House in a special election in 2022, and she was reelected in the following regularly-scheduled election in 2022.

Peltola lost reelection to the US House in 2024.

I predict Peltola will win the Alaska Senate Race by about 2%, as polling suggests.

Therefore, I consider the Alaska Senate Race to be Lean Democrat.

Ohio

In Ohio, appointed incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted to fill the vacancy created when Sen. JD Vance was elected to be Trump’s Vice President in 2024.

Although Jon Husted hasn’t yet won an election to the US Senate, he has won statewide elections in Ohio.

In 2010, Jon Husted was elected Ohio Secretary of State. He was reelected in 2014.

In 2018, Jon Husted was elected as Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor alongide Mike DeWine, who was elected to be Ohio’s Governor.

Husted was reelected as Lieutenant Governor in 2022, alongside Gov. Mike DeWine.

Ohio first elected Sherrod Brown (D) to the Senate in 2006.

Brown was reelected in 2012 and 2018, before losing reelection in 2024. 

Sherrod Brown narrowly leads recent polling, which effectively shows an evenly divided race.

Brown leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 0.6%.

Ohio voted for Trump in the three most recent presidential elections.

In 2024, Trump won Ohio by 11.2%.

In 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8.0%.

In 2016, Trump won Ohio by 8.1%.

Nevertheless, Ohio voted for Obama twice.

In 2012, Obama won Ohio by 3.0%.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4.6%.

Ohio has elected both Republicans and Democrats to the Senate, but Republicans have fared better in recent elections.

Ohio first elected Sherrod Brown (D) to the Senate in 2006.

Brown was reelected in 2012 and 2018.

In 2024, Sherrod Brown (D) ran for reelection against Businessman Bernie Moreno (R).

Moreno (R) won by 3.6%.

Before the 2024 Ohio Senate Race, I published an article where I showed how Sherrod Brown voted on key issues in the Senate, and discussed some of Bernie Moreno’s political liabilities.

After the 2024 election, I discussed the results of the 2024 Senate Races, including the one in Ohio.

In 2022, JD Vance (R) ran against Congressman Tim Ryan (D).

Vance (R) won by 6.1%.

Ohio most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2018, when the state reelected Sherrod Brown (D).

I predict Sherrod Brown will win the Ohio Senate Race, but that the margin, rounding to the nearest percent, will be 0.

I consider the Ohio Senate Race to be Tilt Democrat.

Although, I could easily see it going either way.

Texas

In Texas, State Representative James Talarico (D) is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

Talarico leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.9%.

Republicans have won recent Presidential and Senate elections in Texas, although they often win by less than 10%.

Trump has won the three most recent presidential elections in Texas.

In 2024, Trump won Texas by 13.7%.

In 2020, Trump won Texas by 5.6%.

In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9.0%.

In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) ran for reelection against Congressman Colin Allred (D).

Cruz won by 8.5%.

In 2020, Sen. John Cornyn (R) ran for reelection against Veteran MJ Hegar (D).

Cornyn won by 9.6%.

It has been 50 years since Texas voted for a Democrat for President.

Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1976, when the state voted for Jimmy Carter.

It has been 38 years since Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, when the state reelected Lloyd Bentsen.

James Talarico is an amazing candidate, Ken Paxton is a horrible candidate, and the national political environment is devastating for Republicans.

Texas is such a Republican state that it would take all three of these conditions to be met for a Democrat to have a real chance to win a Senate election in the state.

But this year, all three conditions have been met.

I predict James Talarico will win the Texas Senate Race, but that the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0.

I consider the Texas Senate Race to be Tilt Democrat.

Although, I could easily see it going either way.

Overall Prediction

So where does this leave the overall race for Senate control?

There are currently 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the US Senate.

The Democratic total includes Bernie Sanders and Angus King, two Independents who caucus with the Democrats.

I don’t believe Republicans will flip any seats currently held by Democrats.

I believe Democrats will flip the 5 Senate Seats: North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas.

Therefore, I predict Democrats, and allied Independents, will enter the next congress holding 52 seats, and Republicans will hold 48 seats.

If that happens, Democrats will win Senate control.

But I consider two states, Ohio and Texas, to be Tilt Democrat.

If Republicans win these highly competitive races, and my other predictions are correct, the Senate would be tied with each party holding 50 seats.

If that happens, Vice President JD Vance would break the tie in favor of Republicans.

I currently believe Democrats hold a narrow advantage in the race for Senate Control, but the odds remain incredibly close.

If you would like to help Democrats flip control of the Senate, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund.

I’m currently raising money for 5 Senate candidates: James Talarico in Texas, Josh Turek in Iowa, Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Adam Hamilton in Kansas.

Tables

 

Before we go, let’s examine a few tables that compare statistics I discussed in this article.

Here is a table showing the Real Clear Politics polling averages for these Senate Races as of Aug. 27, 2026. 

Real Clear Politics has not created polling averages for the Senate races in Nebraska and Kansas.

Here is a table showing how the 10 states discussed in this article voted in the 2024 Presidential Election.

Maine was the only state that voted for Harris.

The other nine all voted for Trump.

Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina voted for Trump by less than 5%.

Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Kansas each voted for Trump by more than 10%.

Nebraska voted for Trump by more than 20%.

This table shows how these states voted in Senate elections 2020. 

This table does not include Ohio, because this year’s Senate election in Ohio is a special election, and Ohio did not have a Senate election in 2020.

In 2020, Democrats won the regularly-scheduled Senate elections in Michigan and Georgia by less than 2%.

Republicans won the 2020 Senate elections in North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, and Texas by less than 10%.

Republicans won the 2020 Senate elections in Kansas and Alaska by more than 10%.

The Republican candidate won the 2020 Senate election in Nebraska by almost 40%.

Now, let’s look compare the most recent time these states voted for a Republican for president.

Nine states voted for Trump in 2024.

Only Maine didn’t vote for Trump in 2024.

Maine last voted for a Republican for President in 1988.

Next, let’s compare the most recent time these states voted for a Democrat for President.

Kansas, Nebraska, and Alaska haven’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964.

Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1976.

Now, let’s compare the most recent time these states elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Maine does not appear on this table.

In 2024, Maine reelected Angus King, an independent aligned with Democrats.

Kansas most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.

Texas most recently elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988.

Finally, let’s compare the most recent time these states elected a Republican Senator.

Eight of these states have elected at least one Republican to the Senate since 2020.

Georgia hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2016.

Michigan hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994.

Writing this article took a lot of work.

You can support my coverage of the 2026 elections on Patreon.