Grading my 2022 Political Predictions

 

In 2022, I published predictions for seven Kansas elections.

Let’s examine how well I did.

 

 

Predicted Winners

 

For each race, I predicted who would win, and what the margin of victory would be.

I predicted the correct winner in six of the seven races.

 

 

You can click the tables to view larger versions of them. 

The Kansas Attorney General election was the only contest where I didn’t correctly predict the winner.

I predicted Chris Mann (D) would win, but Kris Kobach (R) won instead.

 

 

 

Perfect Prediction

 

I predicted Laura Kelly (D) would win the Kansas Governor’s Race by 2%.

That was my only perfect prediction.

I predicted both the winner and margin correctly. 

 

 

My prediction matched 538’s prediction for the race.

 

 

 

 

Near Misses

 

There were three races where my predicted margin wasn’t perfect, but was within 10% of the actual margin.

 

I predicted Jerry Moran (R) would win the US Senate election in Kansas by 20%.

Instead, he won by 23%.

My prediction was 3% off the actual margin.

 

In the Kansas Third Congressional District, I predicted Sharice Davids (D) would win by 5%.

Instead, she won by 12%.

My prediction was 7% off the actual margin. 

 

In the Kansas Attorney General race, I predicted Chris Mann (D) would win by 5%.

Instead, Kris Kobach (R) won by 2%.

My prediction was 7% off the actual margin.

 

Many voters were undecided in the KS AG race in the days prior to the election.

I predicted these voters would break in favor of Mann.

Instead, they broke in favor of Kobach.

 

 

 

 

Less Accurate Predictions

 

There were three races where my predicted margin was within 20% of the actual margin, but not within 10%.

 

In the Kansas Insurance Commissioner race, I predicted Vicki Schmidt (R) would win by 40%.

Instead, she won by 26%.

My predicted margin was 14% off the actual margin.

 

In the Kansas Secretary of State race, I predicted Scott Schwab (R) would win by 35%.

Instead, he won by 20%.

My predicted margin was 15% off the actual margin.

 

In the Kansas Treasurer race, I predicted Steven Johnson (R) would win by 30%.

Instead, he won by 13%.

My predicted margin was 17% off the actual margin.

 

My predictions would have been more accurate if I had assumed the results in these races would more closely match how voters had historically voted in similar elections.

My predictions were informed by knowledge about the candidates in these races, but most voters were likely paying less attention to these down ballot races than I anticipated.

In each of these three larger misses, I predicted the Republican candidate would win by a larger margin than they actually did.

 

The Republican candidate won the three previous contested Kansas Insurance Commissioner races by an average of 26%.

Vicki Schmidt (R) won by 26%.

 

The Republican candidate won the four previous Secretary of State races by an average of 20%.

Scott Schwab (R) won by 20%.

 

The Republican candidate won the four previous Kansas Treasurer races by an average of 24%.

Steven Johnson (R) won by 13%.

 

I predicted Johnson would win by 30%, a larger margin than the historical average, but he actually won by a smaller margin than the historical average.

This was the prediction where I was the furthest from the actual margin. 

 

I interacted with both Steven Johnson (R) and his opponent Lynn Rogers (D) when I worked as a reporter for the Salina Journal in 2018-19.

I covered Johnson more closely, because he was a representative in the Kansas Legislature representing a district near Salina.

I believed Johnson was the kind of Republican who would outperform the historical margin because he would appeal to moderate Republicans.

But once again, I don’t think virtually anyone was paying attention to this down ballot race. 

 

Lynn Rogers was somewhat known for serving as Laura Kelly’s Lieutenant Governor, before she appointed him to serve as State Treasurer, after the previous treasurer was elected to Congress.

I was not particularly impressed by Rogers’s performance as a candidate in the campaign for State Treasurer. 

Rogers was qualified for the job, and I voted for him, but I don't believe he ran an especially effective campaign. 

It appears Rogers benefited from both name recognition and an incumbency advantage in the final margin.