Marshall wins US Senate race in Kansas

Roger Marshall (R) beat Barbara Bollier (D) in the US Senate race in Kansas by 13%.

Marshall received 54% of the vote. Bollier received 41%. 

Libertarian Party candidate Jason Buckley received 5%.

Marshall won by a considerably larger margin than predicted. 

FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model predicted Marshall would win by 6%. 

However, Marshall won by a smaller margin than Republican US Senate candidates in Kansas received on average in recent elections.

Republicans won each of the 4 most recent US Senate races in Kansas. On average, the Republican candidate won by 27%.  

In 2008, Pat Roberts (R) beat Jim Slattery (D) by 24%. 

In 2010, Jerry Moran (R) beat Lisa Johnston (D) by 44%. 

In 2014, Pat Roberts (R) beat Greg Orman (i) by 11%.  

In 2016, Jerry Moran beat Patrick Wiesner (D) by 30%.

 

George McGill was the most recent Democrat to represent Kansas in the US Senate. He served from Dec. 1, 1930 to Jan 3, 1939.  

Kansas has been represented exclusively by Republicans in the US Senate ever since.

The 2014 US Senate race between Pat Roberts (R) and Independent candidate Greg Orman remains the most competitive US Senate race in recent Kansas political history. 

The 2014 race’s margin of R+11% was closer than this year’s margin of R+13%.

Donald Trump wins Kansas

While the outcome of the US Presidential Election remains uncertain, Donald Trump has clearly won the state of Kansas and its six electoral votes.

Donald Trump (R) received 57% of the vote in Kansas. Joe Biden (D) received 41%.

Libertarian Party candidate Jo Jorgensen won 2% of the vote in Kansas.

Donald Trump won Kansas by a margin of 16%.

That is a higher margin of victory for Donald Trump than FiveThirtyEight predicted in its election forecast. 

FiveThirtyEight predicted Trump would win by 13%.

Trump won this year by a lower margin of victory than Republican presidential candidates generally receive in Kansas, however.

Prior to 2020, the Republican candidate won each of the last three presidential elections in Kansas, by an average margin of 19%.

In 2016, Donald Trump (R) beat Hillary Clinton (D) by a margin of 21%. 

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) beat Barack Obama (D) by a margin of 22%.

In 2008, John McCain (R) beat Barack Obama (D) by a margin of 15%.  

Clarke Sanders wins the Kansas 69th House District

 Longtime KSAL Radio Host Clarke Sanders (R) has won the election to represent the Kansas 69^th House District, which is located in Saline County.

Sanders received 59% of the vote. His opponent, Salina Central High School Choir Teacher Ryan Holmquist (D), received 41%.

Sanders won the election by a margin of 18%. 

Prior to 2020, the Republican candidate won the general election in the 69^th District in each of the past six elections by an average margin of 14.3%.

Yesterday, I wrote a blog post that examined the recent voting history of the 69^th District.  

FiveThirtyEight's final predictions

FiveThirtyEight has finalized its election forecast model, which gives Biden an 89% chance of winning the electoral college.

The model predicts North Carolina and Georgia will go to Biden. It predicts Ohio, Iowa, and Texas will go to Trump.

 

 

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FiveThirtyEight's final US Senate model gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning control of the chamber.

 

North Carolina and Georgia Special are considered Lean Democratic. Maine, Georgia, and Iowa are considered toss-ups. Montana is considered Lean Republican.

 

 

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FiveThirtyEight's final US House model gives Democrats a 97% chance to maintain their majority in the chamber. 

 

KS-1 and KS-4 are considered Solid Republican. 

 

KS-2 is considered Likely Republican. 

 

KS-3 is considered Solid Democratic.

 

 

Kansas State Senate Races worth watching

Here are some of the Kansas state senate races that will be worth watching as results begin to be released this evening.

 

 

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In the Kansas 3rd State Senate District, incumbent Tom Holland (D) will be running against Willie Dove (R). The District generally has close general elections, and it leans Democratic.

 

 

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In the Kansas 5th State Senate District, incumbent Kevin Braun (R) is running against Jeffrey Pittman (D). The 5th District is a swing district. Braun voted against expanding Medicaid in 2019.

 

 

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Barbara Bollier, who is running in the Kansas US Senate race, currently represents the Kansas 7th State Senate District. 

 

Bollier was elected to the 7th District as a Republican. She switched parties in Dec. 2018 and became a Democrat.

 

The Kansas 7th State Senate District has voted for a Republican since 2004, in each of its last five elections. 

 

Ethan Corson (D) is running against Laura McConwell (R) for the 7th district seat.

 

 

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Dinah Sykes is another moderate Republican who switched parties in Dec. 2018. 

 

Sykes, who represents the 21st Kansas State Senate District, is running for reelection this year.

 

A Republican has won every election to represent the 21st Kansas State Senate District since 2004. 

 

Sykes (D) is running for reelection against Tom Bickimer (R). 

 

 

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Tom Hawk (D) represents the Kansas 22nd State Senate District, which is a swing district. 

 

Hawk is running for reelection against Craig Bowser (R).

 

 

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Sedgwick County Democratic Party officials chose Mary Ware to represent the Kansas 25th State Senate District after Lynn Rogers was elected in 2018 to become Laura Kelly's Lt. Gov.

 

Ware (D) is running for reelection in the 25th district against Vail Fruechting (R).

 

Over its last four elections, the 25th district elected a Republican three times and a Democrat once.

Kansas has a competitive US Senate Race

State Senator Barbara Bollier (D) is running against Congressman Roger Marshall (R) to represent Kansas in the US Senate. 

 

Marshall currently represents the Kansas first congressional district in Congress.

 

FiveThirtyEight expects Marshall to win the race by 5-6%. 

 

George McGill was the most recent Democrat to represent Kansas in the US Senate. He served from Dec. 1, 1930 to Jan 3, 1939. 

 

Kansas has been represented exclusively by Republicans in the US Senate ever since.

 

Republicans won each of the 4 most recent US Senate races in Kansas. On average, the Republican candidate won by 27%.

 

In 2008, Pat Roberts (R) beat Jim Slattery (D) by 24%. 

 

In 2010, Jerry Moran (R) beat Lisa Johnston (D) by 44%. 

 

In 2014, Pat Roberts (R) beat Greg Orman (i) by 11%. 

 

In 2016, Jerry Moran beat Patrick Wiesner (D) by 30%.