My Final Senate Predictions

 

Happy Election Day.

Make sure to vote today, if you haven’t already.

Let’s take a quick look at the Senate polling averages, before I make my final Senate predictions.

Polling Averages

I created my own polling averages for the Senate Races in Kansas and Nebraska.

There have been many polls of the Kansas Senate Race, which has attracted considerable national attention.

I created two Election Day polling averages for the Kansas Senate Race.

The first average includes all polls conducted in the past two months.

Democrat Adam Hamilton leads the two-month polling average by 2.5%. 

You can click the images in this article to view larger versions of them.  

The second average includes all polls conducted in the past month.

Democrat Adam Hamilton leads the one-month polling average by 3.5%.

I created a polling average for the Nebraska Senate Race.

The average includes all polls conducted in the past two months.

Republican Pete Ricketts leads the Nebraska Senate polling average by 0.8%.

Here are the polling averages for almost all of the competitive Senate Races.

Other than the polling averages mentioned above, all of these polling averages were calculated by Real Clear Politics.

Predictions

Here are my final Senate Race predictions.

Here is a map showing my final ratings for each competitive Senate Race.

In each race, I have predicted the winning party.

I have also predicted the percent margin of victory in each election, rounded to the nearest percent.

D+0 means that I predict the Democrat will win, but that the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0.

I predict Democrats will hold 53 seats in the US Senate, after the election.

My predicted winners are the same as they were for my predictions in August, except for Kansas.

I previously predicted Roger Marshall (R) would win, now I predict Adam Hamilton (D) will win, even though I believe Hamilton will win by the narrowest of margins.

But it’s still possible for Republicans to retain control of the Senate.

If Republicans win all four races I consider to be Tilt Democratic, Republicans would hold 51 seats, and Democrats would hold 49 seats, after the election.

In the House, I predict Democrats will win 235 seats.

That’s the same number of seats they won during Trump’s first midterm, in 2018.

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