Nebraska may determine Senate Control

 

Control of the US Senate may be determined by an election in Nebraska, where an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, is challenging a Republican incumbent.

The Nebraska Senate race is the closest Senate race in the country.

Democrats can retain Senate control if they win the presidency, Osborn wins in Nebraska, and he sides with Democrats in the Senate.

This would create a 50-50 tie, which would be broken by the vice president of the winning presidential ticket.

If Kamala Harris wins, that tie would be broken by Vice President Tim Walz.

 

 

Democrats currently hold 51 seats in the Senate. Republicans are likely to flip West Virginia and Montana, which means Democrats would have to flip a seat themselves to reach a 50-50 split that would allow them the chance to retain Senate control.  

Currently, democrats’ best opportunity to do so lies in Osborn’s race in Nebraska. 

 

 

Senate control is especially important because the Senate can confirm or block federal judicial nominations.

You can read more about the importance of maintaining Democratic control of the US Senate in an editorial I wrote last year.

 

 

 

Nebraska

 

Osborn is running against incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, who was first elected to the senate in 2012.

Fischer currently leads by 0.6% in 538’s polling average, which accounts for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology, and house effects. 

 

 

 

 

538 displays six polls of the Nebraska Senate race that were conducted in September and October.

Osborn leads in five of those polls, four of which were sponsored by his campaign.

The poll showing Fischer in the lead was sponsored by her campaign. 

 

 

 

Recent statewide elections in Nebraska haven't been especially competitive.

Fischer won her most recent reelection in 2018 by 19%.

Trump won Nebraska in 2020 by 19%.

Trump won Nebraska in 2016 by 25%.

 

 

 

Ohio

 

Now let’s take a look at the second closest Senate race in the country.

In Ohio, Incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for reelection against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

Brown currently leads by 2.3%, according to 538’s polling average. 

 

 

 

 

 

Brown leads in the seven most recent polls listed by 538.

 

 

 

Brown was first elected to the US Senate in 2006.

Brown won his most recent reelection in 2018 by 6.8%. 

 

On the presidential level, Ohio has been reliably Republican for the last two elections. 

Trump won Ohio in 2020 by 8.0%.

Trump won Ohio in 2016 by 8.1%.

 

 

 

 

Useful Tables

 

This table lists the 538 polling averages in the Senate battlegrounds as of Oct. 16.  

 

 

 

 

 

This table contains additional information about the races, including the names of the candidates, and how these states voted the last time these seats were up for election in 2018.

 

 

 

 

 

Forecasts

 

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball provide qualitative ratings to describe the competitiveness of Senate and House races.

Here are Cook’s ratings for the 2024 Senate Races.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sabato’s ratings for 2024 Senate Races can be found on the map below. 

 

 

 

 

Abortion Amendments are on the ballot in 10 states

 

Across the country, abortion rights will be on the ballot this November.

Everyone will be voting in races where the candidates’ positions on abortion will be consequential.

But some voters will be voting directly on abortion rights in the their state.

Voters in 10 states will decide whether to approve state constitutional amendments about abortion rights.

 

 

Voters in all 10 states will vote on proposed constitutional amendments that would protect abortion rights. Those states are New York, Maryland, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada.

But voters in Nebraska will also vote on a second proposed constitutional amendment that would limit abortion rights.

 

 

The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), a non-profit that focuses on health care policy, has compiled information about these proposed constitutional amendments.

The KFF created a map that shows the states that will be voting on abortion-related state constitutional amendments this year.

 

You can click on the map to view a larger version of it. 

You can learn more about the specifics of the proposed amendments from the Kaiser Family Foundation’s report.

 

 

 

 Abortion Rights by State

 

In the US, several states have enacted abortion bans since the US Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion on June 24, 2022. 

The New York Times is tracking the status of abortion rights across the country.

You can view the legal status of abortion in every state on the map below.

You can find more detailed information on abortion rights in each state from the New York Times. 

Voters support abortion rights

 

Thus far, the side favoring abortion rights has won every time abortion-related state constitutional amendments have been put to a public vote since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022.

 

 

On August 2, 2022, Kansas was the first state to vote on abortion rights.

Kansas voters rejected a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would have explicitly said the constitution does not create or secure a right to abortion.

The amendment would have overturned an April 2019 Kansas Supreme Court ruling that found the state constitution protects abortion rights.

The amendment would have also given the Kansas Legislature the legal authority to approve a restrictive abortion ban.

Voters rejected the proposed constitutional amendment by a margin of 18%.

 

 

 

Four states voted on proposed state constitutional amendments about abortion on November 8, 2022: Kentucky, Michigan, California, and Vermont.

 

Kentucky voted against a constitutional amendment that would have stated the constitution does not secure or protect a right to abortion.

Voters rejected the proposed constitutional amendment by a margin of 4.7%.

 

 

Michigan adopted a constitutional amendment that establishes a fundamental right to reproductive freedom, including abortion.

The amendment protects an individual’s right to make decisions about all matters relating to pregnancy, including prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, contraception, sterilization, abortion care, miscarriage management, and infertility care.

The amendment allows the state to regulate abortion after fetal viability, unless in the professional judgement of an attending health care professional, an abortion is medically indicated to protect the life, or the physical or mental health, of the pregnant individual.

Voters approved the constitutional amendment by a margin of 13%.

 

 

California approved a constitutional amendment that protects an individual's right to reproductive freedom, including the rights to abortion and contraception.

Voters approved the constitutional amendment by a margin of 34%.

 

 

Vermont approved a constitutional amendment that protects an individual's right to personal reproductive autonomy.

The amendment doesn’t mention abortion specifically, but it’s generally understood to protect abortion rights.

Voters approved the amendment by a margin of 54%.

 

 

 

 

Abortion elections in 2023

 

Voters continued to support abortion rights in 2023.

 

Abortion was a key issue in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, which was held on April 4, 2023.

The candidate who supports abortion rights, Janet Protasiewicz, won by a margin of 11%.

 

 

Ohio approved a constitutional amendment that protects abortion rights on Nov. 7, 2023.

The amendment protects an individual’s right to make their own reproductive decisions, including decisions related to contraception, fertility treatment, continuing their pregnancy, miscarriage care, and abortion.

The amendment allows the state to prohibit abortion after fetal viability, except when, in the professional judgement of a treating physician, an abortion is necessary to protect a pregnant patient’s life or health.

Voters approved the amendment by a margin of 14%.

 

 

Abortion rights also played a key role in the Kentucky gubernatorial election, which also took place on Nov. 7, 2023.

Incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D), who supports abortion rights, won the election by a margin of 5.1%.

Despite two wins for abortion rights in state-wide elections, abortion remains illegal in Kentucky, where it is banned in almost all circumstances, according to the New York Times.

 

 

Time will tell if abortion rights will continue to win every time voters have an opportunity to vote on the topic directly.