House of Representatives

 

In 2024, Republicans retained control of the US House of Representatives.

Republicans won 220 seats, and Democrats won 215 seats.

 

The House of Representatives represented a small silver lining for Democrats, because they managed to gain two more seats in the chamber than they won in 2022.

The small size of Republican House majority will make it harder for Republicans to pass legislation than if they had more votes to spare.

 

 

 

Closest Races

 

It’s time to break out the tables.

 

Our first table examines the 11 House races that were decided by less than 2% in 2024.

The table describes the margins of victory by both percent of total votes cast and by the number of votes.

The symbol “(i)” represents the incumbent candidate in an election.  

You can click on any table or graph in this series to view a larger version. 

 

 

I originally obtained many of the election results that appear in this series from the New York Times.

I have done my best to double and triple check all of the statistics in this series, but if you notice I made a mistake, let me know.

 

 

 

Our next table table provides additional information about the 11 races shown above.

 

 

This table includes the 2022 margin in these districts, whether the district flipped, and whether the 2024 election was a rematch between the same candidates who ran against each other in 2022.

This table also lists whether the result in the district shifted in favor of Democrats or Republicans in 2024, and by how much.

Six of these districts shifted in favor of Republicans in 2024, and five shifted in favor of Democrats.

 

 

The tipping point district for House control was Pennsylvania 7, where Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie defeated Democratic Incumbent Susan Wild by 1.0%.

If Democrats had managed to win Iowa 1, Colorado 8, and Pennsylvania 7, they would have won 218 seats and secured House control.

 

 

 

This table examines the 2024 results in the House districts that were the closest races in 2022.

A total of 11 races were decided in 2022 by less than 1%.

Six of these districts shifted in favor of Republicans in 2024, and five shifted in favor of Democrats.

 

 

 

Two districts had races that were among the 11 closest House elections in both 2022 and 2024.

In California 13, Democrat Adam Gray won a rematch in 2024 against Republican incumbent John Duarte.

In both 2024 and 2022, the winner of the election was decided by less than 1%.

 

In Colorado 8, Republican challenger Gabe Evans defeated Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo in 2024.

In both 2024 and 2022, the district was decided by less than 1%.

 

 

 

Historical Context

 

Now let’s explore how this House majority compares to others in recent American history.

 

This table lists the seats controlled by Democrats, Republicans, and Independents after each election since 1990.

I compiled this table using data from Wikipedia, which I believe is a reasonably reliable source for these kinds of statistics.

Republicans have the narrowest House majority of either party since 1990.

 

 

Since 1990, Republicans won a House majority after 12 elections, Democrats won a House majority after six elections.

Republicans won House control twice as often as Democrats during this period.

 

 

 

Let’s view this information on a line graph.

This graph shows the outcome of House elections beginning in 2006.

 

 

 

Immediately, you can see how narrow the majorities have been in the US House in the last three elections, compared to previous years.

 

 

 

Now, let’s zoom out to view all of the elections since 1990.

 

Recent House majorities look even smaller on this graph.

I created these line graphs using Flourish, a website that allows users to create compelling visual aids. 

 

 

CNN has published a good article about the political dynamics in the current narrow House majority, and the history of narrow House majorities from the early Twentieth Century. 

 

In the next article, we’ll examine the results of the 2024 US Senate elections.

 

 

2024 Election Results

 

The 2024 election was a red wave.

Donald Trump was reelected president, Republicans won control of both houses of Congress, and Republicans expanded their supermajority in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature.

I have created tables, charts, and graphs to illustrate the results of the 2024 election and more easily view those results in historical context.

I’m sure you’re already familiar with the top-line results of the election. Most of my readers are likely Democrats who find these results upsetting.

But I believe you will find my analysis of the election results interesting and informative, regardless.

Better understanding these results can also help identify the races worth focusing on the next time these seats are up for reelection.

And of course, any Republican readers are welcome to learn from my election analysis as well.

 

 

My coverage of the election results will span several articles released over many weeks.

We’ll begin by exploring the results of elections for the House of Representatives.  

 

 

The Fight for First

 

[This article is the third entry in Season 3 of LGBT by the Numbers, which explores the results of the Gender Census, an annual online survey of people whose gender isn’t strictly male or female.

So far, I’ve introduced Season 3 and discussed the results from the 2024 Gender Census. My articles about last year's Gender Census provide a thorough discussion of nonbinary identity terms.]

 

 

Between 2013 and 2015, the umbrella term preferred by a majority of people with a gender outside the binary appears to have changed from genderqueer to nonbinary.

Whether you believe that’s true depends on how much you trust the results of the pilot Gender Census from 2013.

 

 

Genderqueer refers to someone whose gender identity or expression falls outside the boundaries of what is typically considered male or female. 

Nonbinary refers to someone whose gender identity isn’t exclusively male or female.

These terms are similar, but not identical. Some people with a binary gender identify as genderqueer because they engage in gender expression in nonconforming way, like tomboys and femboys do.

 

 

Eleven years ago, Cassian administered the first Gender Census in 2013. 

At the time, Barack Obama was president, and I was studying journalism at Kansas State University.

That year, on this blog, I wrote a series on Julian Assange, discussed revelations from NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden, and began covering the US military prison at Guantanamo.

 

 

 

In the 2013 Gender Census, 58% of respondents identified as genderqueer.

Genderqueer was the only identity term that received more than 50% that year.

Nonbinary came in second with 39%.

 

There was no Gender Census in 2014.

 

Cassian administered the second Gender Census in 2015.

That year, Nonbinary took first place with 64%.

Genderqueer came in second with 41%.

 

 

 

You can click on the graph to view a larger version of it. 

 

Cassian has administered a Gender Census every year since 2015, and Nonbinary has been the top identity term in the Gender Census since 2015.

Therefore, the most popular umbrella term for people with a gender outside the binary appears to have changed around 2014. 

 

 

This tentative conclusion appears plausible.

Kye Rowan, a nonbinary and intersex person, created the nonbinary flag in 2014.

It would make sense that this event coincided with the rise in popularity of the term.

 

 

 The Nonbinary Flag

 

 

The genderqueer flag was created a few years earlier.

Marilyn Roxie, a genderqueer person, created the genderqueer flag in 2011.

 

The Genderqueer Flag

 

 

 

 

 

Reasons for Caution

 

There are a few reasons to treat the results of the 2013 survey with caution.

Last year, Cassian described the 2013 survey as, “more of a pilot survey that informed a better survey in 2015.”

 

Fewer people responded to the survey in 2013 than any of the surveys that followed.

Only 2,061 people took part in the survey, compared to 2,901 in 2015.

The number people who completed each Gender Census is shown in the graph and table below.

That being said, 2,061 respondents is still a good size for a poll, even if it was surpassed by the number of people who completed the survey in subsequent years.

 

 

 

 

So what can we conclude?

 

As far as I can tell, the data from the Gender Census appears to show a shift around 2014 when Nonbinary surpassed Genderqueer as the preferred umbrella term for people who don’t identify with a binary gender.

 

 

It’s worth noting that even though genderqueer lost its top spot, it remains a popular term among nonbinary people.

Genderqueer received 33% in the 2024 Gender Census, making it the seventh most commonly chosen term in the survey.

 

 

Only three identity terms have ever been chosen by more than 50% of respondents in the Gender Census.

Genderqueer received more than 50% in 2013.

Nonbinary has received more than 60% every year, beginning in 2015. 

Queer has received more than 50% every year, beginning in 2022.

 

 

 

 

 

Going Forward

 

From here on out, we’ll focus on Gender Census data from 2015 onward.

Graphs in subsequent articles generally won’t include data from the 2013 survey, based on concerns explained above, but discussions in those articles will reference data from 2013 when relevant.

 

In the next article, we’ll begin our exploration of the top identity terms from the 2024 Gender Census and examine how they have performed over time.