Deb Fischer’s Senate Record

 

Earlier today, I published my predictions for the 2024 US Senate elections.

I believe the closest race will be in Nebraska, where Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is running for reelection against independent challenger Dan Osborn. 

 

In this article, we’ll take a close look at the Nebraska Senate Race, and Deb Fischer’s voting record in the US Senate. 

Although, I should disclose I am not an objective observer in this race. I have donated to support Osborn's campaign. 

 

 

I predict Deb Fischer will win the Nebraska Senate race by 0%.

Therefore, I predict Fischer will win the election, and I predict the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0.

For this projection, it’s possible I predict the margin correctly, and the winner incorrectly.  

Deb Fischer leads 538’s polling average in the Nebraska Senate race by 2.4%.

 

 

Deb Fischer (R) was first elected to the senate in 2012.

Fischer was reelected in 2018 by 19%. 

 

 

 

Trump won Nebraska in 2020 by 19%.

 

 

 

This year, Dan Osborn, an independent candidate, is challenging Fischer is the Nebraska Senate race.

 

 

Osborn is a labor leader and veteran of the US Navy.

 

 

This year, Nebraska voters will vote on two competing abortion amendments, one that would protect abortion rights, and one that would limit abortion rights.

So voters in Nebraska will likely pay particularly close attention to their ballots this year.

 

 

 

 

Reproductive Rights

 

Now, let’s examine how Deb Fischer has voted on key issues in the senate. 

 

Fischer voted against the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have overturned state abortion bans by establishing a right to abortion under federal law.  

The bill failed to receive the 60 votes it needed to clear a Senate filibuster.

 

 

Deb Fischer supported the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

“I have always supported pro-life policies that show compassion for women and their unborn children,” Fischer said. “Both conservative and liberal legal scholars have long questioned the legal reasoning in Roe v. Wade.”

“The justices made the right decision in Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Center by affirming that there is no constitutional right to abortion,” Fischer continued. “Today’s ruling returns policy making decisions on this issue to state and federal lawmakers. It’s going to take good faith and empathy to address it.”

 

On his campaign website, Dan Osborn states he wants to “keep government out of our private lives,” and says he does not support, “extreme national measures to ban abortion.”

 

Fischer voted against the “Right to IVF Act,” which would have created a federal right to access fertility treatments and overturned state laws that interfere with the provision of fertility treatments. 

The Right to IVF Act failed to receive the 60 votes it needed to clear a Senate filibuster. 

 

 

I created a table that shows how incumbent senators, who are running for reelection in close races this year, voted on key issues in the senate. 

 

 

 

 

The senators who voted to convict Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, are shown in the final row to have voted "Guilty."

The senators who voted to acquit Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, are shown in the final row to have voted, "Not Guilty."

 

 

 

 

Gay Marriage

 

Congress passed, and President Biden signed, the Respect for Marriage Act in 2022.

Currently, the right to same sex marriage is protected nationwide under the Supreme Court’s ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges.

Liberals feared the US Supreme Court might overturn its decisions protecting gay marriage after the court overturned Roe v. Wade.

The Respect for Marriage Act was passed due to these concerns. 

 

 

The Respect for Marriage Act requires states to recognize same-sex marriages conducted in other states, and requires the federal government to recognize the legitimacy of same-sex marriages conducted by states that allow them.

 

 

While the Respect for Marriage Act was passed into law, the votes on the bill showed which members of Congress were still opposed to same-sex marriage in 2022.

One of those members of Congress was Deb Fischer, who voted against the Respect for Marriage Act in the senate.

 

 

 

 

Economic Policy

 

Fischer voted against the American Rescue Plan, which extended unemployment benefits, provided emergency rental assistance, expanded food stamp benefits, expanded the child tax credit, and provided funding to cities and states to replace tax revenue lost due to the pandemic.

The law also provided $1,400 checks to Americans making $75,000 or less per year.

 

Fischer voted for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which provided funding for roads, bridges, public transit, broadband internet, and other infrastructure projects.   

 

Fischer voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, which allows Medicare to negotiate prices for some drugs and authorizes tax credits for renewable energy.  

 

Congress passed and President Biden signed each of the three laws mentioned above.  

 

 

 

 

Donald Trump

 

Deb Fischer voted to acquit Donald Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.

 

 

Fischer endorsed Trump for president in January, after Trump won the New Hampshire Republican Primary.

Fischer announced her endorsement on Twitter.

“It’s time for Republicans to unite around President Donald Trump and make Joe Biden a one-term president,” Fischer said. “These last three years have yielded a crippling border crisis, an inflationary economy that prices the American Dream out of reach for families, and a world in constant turmoil with our enemies on the march.”

“I endorse Donald Trump for President so we can secure our border, get our economy moving again, and keep America safe,” Fischer added.

 

 

 

 

I believe the US Senate race in Nebraska will be close, but ultimately, I predict Fischer will win reelection in the Republican state.

 

 

 

CORRECTION (Jan. 8, 2025):

The table showing how Senators voted on key issues previously misspelled the name of Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey Jr.

The table has been updated, and the spelling mistake has been fixed. 

 

 

My 2024 Senate Predictions

 

I predict Republicans will win control of the US Senate.

I really want Democrats to retain control of the Senate, but I don’t believe they will.

After this election, I predict Republicans will hold 51 seats, and Democrats will hold 49.

 

 

 

 

I predict the Senate margin will be less than 5% in eight states: Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

For each of these eight races, here are my predicted winners, and the margin I believe they will win by, rounded to the nearest percent.

 

 

 

You can click on the tables above to enlarge them.

As always, these key races are very close, and I would not be surprised if my predictions don’t come to pass.

 

 

I believe Democrats will outperform their Senate polls by 2% in states with abortion amendments on the ballot, and by 1% in states without them.

I believe “shy abortion voters” will turn out to vote for abortion rights, and for candidates who support abortion rights, but won’t share their preferences with pollsters.

 

I plan to discuss the dynamics of the closest Senate races in subsequent articles.

We’ll see how many of those I complete before the election.

 

 

If you haven't already, I encourage you to check out my predictions for the presidential race and down ballot elections. 

My 2024 Down Ballot Predictions

 

In addition to the presidential race, there are many other important elections on the ballot this year.

In this article, I will share my predictions for the US House, Kansas Legislature, and Abortion Amendment elections.

I plan to share my predictions for the US Senate elections in my next article.

I shared my predictions for the 2024 US Presidential Election in an earlier article.

 

Once again, it’s worth bearing in mind that many of these key races are very close.

I would not be surprised if any, or all, of my predictions don’t come to pass.

 

 

 

US House

 

The race for control of US House is very close.

Nevertheless, I predict Democrats will win control of the US House.

 

I used ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball and campaign finance reports to create my prediction for the US House.

Sabato considers 212 seats to be Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican.

Sabato considers 209 seats to be Safe, Likely, or Lean Democrat.

For the purposes of my US House prediction, I assume these races will be won by the candidate Sabato predicts. 

 

 218 seats are required for a majority in the US House.

 

Sabato considers 14 US House races to be tossups.

I used campaign finance data to predict the winners in these races.

Democrats have the cash advantage in 13 tossup races, and Republicans have the cash advantage in 1.

 

If anyone is interested, the only tossup race where Republicans have a cash advantage is the race for California 45, where Republican incumbent Michelle Steel is running for reelection against Democratic challenger Derek Tran.

 

 

I added these predicted tossup winners to Sabato’s lean, likely, and safe predictions.

Therefore, I predict Democrats will win 222 seats, and Republicans will win 213.

This would give Democrats four more seats than the 218 they need for a majority.

 

 

 

 

This result would have a pleasant symmetry with the outcomes of recent US House elections.

In 2020, Democrats won 222 seats in the US House, and Republicans won 213.

In 2022, Republicans won 222 seats in the US House, and Democrats won 213.

 

 

 

 

Kansas House

 

This year, I focused on the elections for the Kansas Legislature, where Democrats have an opportunity to break the Republican Supermajority.

Republicans won a Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature in 2010, and they have maintained it ever since.  

The Supermajority allows Republicans to override vetoes from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly with only Republican votes.

 

I used campaign finance reports to create my predictions for the outcomes of the Kansas Legislative races.

Republicans currently hold 85 seats in the Kansas House, and Democrats currently hold 40.

 

In the Kansas House, I consider races to be competitive if the margin in the district in 2022 was less than 500 votes.

There are 13 of these races.

Eight of these districts are located completely or partially in Johnson County.

Democrats currently hold 5 of these competitive seats, and Republicans currently hold 8.

Democrats need to flip two seats in the Kansas House to break the Republican Supermajority in the chamber.

Therefore, they need to win seven of these races.

 

I predict Democrats will break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas House.

Specifically, I predict Democrats will win nine of the competitive races, winning two more seats than they need to break the supermajority.

Therefore, I predict Democrats will flip four seats.

 

Overall, I predict Republicans will win 81 seats in the Kansas House, and Democrats will win 44.

 

 

This would place Republicans three seats shy of the 84 they would need to retain their supermajority in the chamber.

 

 

 

 

Kansas Senate

 

The elections for the Kansas Senate are taking place in districts drawn after the most recent Kansas Senate elections in 2020.

So for the Kansas Senate elections, my predictions are based on campaign finance data alone.

Republicans currently hold 29 seats in the Kansas Senate, and Democrats hold 11.

 

I predict Democrats will break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Senate.

This is a low confidence prediction, because I believe Democrats will win just enough seats to prevent the Republicans from retaining their supermajority.

I believe Democrats will flip three seats.

Therefore, I predict Republicans will win 26 Kansas Senate seats, and Democrats will win 14.

 

 

That would put Republicans one seat short of the 27 they would need to maintain their supermajority in the chamber.

 

 

 

 

Abortion Amendments

 

Voters in 10 states will decide whether to approve constitutional amendments protecting abortion rights this year.

I predict voters will approve all 10 of these constitutional amendments. 

Abortion rights supporters have won all of the abortion amendment elections that have been held since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in June 2022. 

Polls show widespread support for the abortion rights amendments on the ballot this year.

 

 

The two races that are the most challenging for abortion rights supporters are Florida and Nebraska.

In Florida, constitutional amendments need to receive more than 60% support from voters to be adopted.

In Nebraska, the abortion rights amendment needs to receive more than 50% of the vote, but it also needs to receive more votes than a competing amendment that limits abortion rights.

I discussed the dynamics of the Nebraska abortion elections in a previous article.

 

 

These would all be great outcomes for Democrats.

Time will tell if my predictions come to pass.

 

 

My 2024 Presidential Predictions

  

Predictions are a fool’s game, but let’s play anyway.

In this article, I predict how the swing states will vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

More importantly, this article provides a tour of the political dynamics in the swing states that will determine the outcome of the presidential race.

Even if my predictions miss the mark, I believe you will still find my political analysis informative.

 

 

But before I share my predictions, a few words of caution.

The key races in this election are incredibly close.

I would not be surprised if any, or all, of my predictions don’t come to pass.

You should be wary of believing someone who expresses unearned confidence in their knowledge of things they can’t possibly know.

With that in mind, I view these predictions as more of a fun game than anything else.

 

 

 

Overall, I predict a great night for Democrats.

Some may object to my predictions on the basis that they will lull Democrats into a false sense of security, leading them to abandon their efforts in the critical final stretch of the campaign.

But fear can lead to paralysis as easily as complacency.

If you’re planning to go above and beyond by door knocking, phone banking, or donating money to candidates, don't let my rosy predictions dissuade you from doing so.

 

And obviously, you should vote regardless of whether your vote will determine the outcome of an election.

Voting is more than just a right, it’s a civic duty.

Just make sure that when you vote, you make informed decisions in the races you’re voting on.

 

 

 

Some may say that my rosy predictions demonstrate I am merely predicting my preferred outcomes, rather than engaging in a sober analysis of the relevant facts at hand.

Based on how well I believe Democrats will perform in this election, that critique is probably correct.

 

 

Now, let’s get to those predictions, shall we?

 

 

 

 

Prediction:

Kamala Harris will win the Presidential Race

 

 

Polling in the swing states is very close, and these contests could easily go either way.

Here are three reasons I believe these states will break in Harris’s favor.

 

First, I believe Harris has ran a more strategic campaign.

Harris worked to address her perceived weaknesses as a candidate on immigration and the economy.

Harris picked a charismatic and likable vice presidential candidate, Tim Walz, to join her on the ticket. 

 

Trump, meanwhile, has called for using the alien enemies act, proclaimed the dangers of the enemy within, and continued to defend his Jan. 6 insurrection against Congress.

The last few days have been dominated by news of Trump’s former advisors describing him as a fascist.

Trump chose a strongly disliked vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, who regularly criticized the personal life choices of childless cat ladies.

Overall, I believe Harris has conducted a more effective campaign than Trump.

 

 

Second, I believe there are a small, but significant, number of “shy abortion voters,” who will vote to protect abortion rights, and in favor of candidates who will protect abortion rights, but who won’t talk to pollsters about their political preferences over the phone.

 

 

Third, Democratic senate candidates in presidential swing states are outperforming Harris in the polls.

I believe voters who support Democratic senate candidates, but who are undecided on Harris, will come around to supporting Harris when they cast their ballot.

 

 

I believe these three factors will result in Harris outperforming polling averages in the swing states by about 2%.

That’s not a lot, but when the race is this close, even a small shift can be decisive.

 

 

 

 

Presidential Swing States

 

I predict eight states will be decided by less than 5%.

They are Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Florida.

Florida is the only state on this list that might catch readers by surprise.

538’s polling average predicts Trump will win Florida by 6.4%.

I predict “shy abortion voters” and other factors, such as late deciders, will adjust the margin in Harris’s favor by 2%.

That would mean Trump would win the state by 4.4%, which is less than a 5% margin.

 

 

 

 

Swing State Margins

 

Here are my predictions for the presidential margins in the eight swing states mentioned above, rounded to the nearest percent.

 

 

 

You can click on the table above to enlarge it.  

 

 

 

 

Michigan

 

I predict Harris will win Michigan by 3%.

 

Harris leads in 538’s Michigan polling average by 0.9%.

Elissa Slotkin (D) leads 538’s polling average in the Michigan Senate race by 3.9%.

 

Abortion rights are a key issue in the presidential campaign.

Michigan voters adopted a constitutional amendment that establishes a right to reproductive freedom, including abortion, in 2022, by a margin of 13%.

 

Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 2.8%.

 

 

 

 

Nevada

 

I predict Harris will win Nevada by 2%.

 

538’s Nevada polling average is dead even.

Jacky Rosen (D) leads in 538’s polling average in the Nevada Senate race by 7%.

Nevada is also voting on a constitutional amendment that will protect abortion rights, which will boost turnout from abortion rights supporters.

 

Biden won Nevada in 2020 by 2.4%.

 

 

 

 

Pennsylvania

 

Pennsylvania is the state most likely to determine the outcome of the US Presidential Election.

I predict Harris will win Pennsylvania by 2%.

 

Trump leads in 538’s Pennsylvania polling average by 0.5%.

Bob Casey Jr. (D) leads 538’s polling average for the Pennsylvania Senate race by 3.6%.

 

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by 1.2%.

 

 

 

 

 

Wisconsin

 

I predict Harris will win Wisconsin by 1%.

 

Harris leads in 538’s Wisconsin polling average by 0.7%.

Tammy Baldwin (D) leads in 538’s polling average in the Wisconsin Senate race by 2.1%.

 

There is a recent Wisconsin election that’s worth bearing in mind as well.

Janet Protasiewicz, the liberal candidate in the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court Election, won her race by 11%.

That election shows the strength of Democrats, and supporters of abortion rights, in this critical swing state.

 

Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by 0.6%.

 

 

 

 

North Carolina

 

I predict Harris will win North Carolina by 1%.

 

Trump leads in 538’s North Carolina polling average by 1.1%.

Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by 1.4%.

 

Republicans have absolutely shot themselves in the foot in North Carolina.

Their candidates for Governor and an elected education position are awful.

 

Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for Governor, has called himself a Black Nazi, said he would buy slaves himself if slavery were legal, and has called LGBT people “filth”.

 

538 has not created an official polling average for the North Carolina Governor’s race.

Nevertheless, Josh Stein (D) leads in all of the 10 most recent polls published by 538, by an average of 15%.

 

 

Michele Morrow, the Republican nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction, called for President Obama to be executed by firing squad, and said his execution should be televised.

“The News & Observer,” a newspaper based in Raleigh, North Carolina, reported on Oct. 21 that multiple polls show Mo Green (D) with only a 2 to 3 percent lead over Michele Morrow (R).

 

 

Trump is himself a deeply objectionable figure.

Trump sent a mob to attack Congress to overturn his loss in a free and fair election.

He was found responsible in civil court for sexually assaulting E. Jean Carroll in a department store.

And he was found guilty of 34 felonies in criminal court for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels to hide a sexual affair from voters prior to the 2016 presidential election.

 

Moderate Republican voters in North Carolina are going to have a really hard time justifying getting out to vote when these are the candidates their party has chosen for three important elections.

These horrible candidates also give Democrats more than enough material to drive turnout and persuade swing voters in North Carolina.

 

If you are a current or former Republican, and you are horrified by what your party has become, we’d love to have you join the Democratic Party.

The only criteria are that you have to believe Nazis are bad, and that Hitler was the bad guy in World War II.

 

There’s one more reason why Democrats will be working especially hard to win votes in North Carolina.

Democrats only need to flip one seat in either chamber of the North Carolina Legislature to break the state’s Republican Supermajority.

 

 

 

 

Georgia

 

I predict Harris will win Georgia by 0%.

I’ll admit, that sounds confusing.

So I’ll elaborate.

I predict Harris will win Georgia, and rounding to the nearest percent, I predict the margin of victory in the state will be 0%.

This effectively means I’m predicting Harris will win by less than 0.5%.

That’s a fairly precise prediction.

For this prediction, it’s possible I call the margin correctly, 0%, but the winner incorrectly.

 

Trump leads 538’s Georgia polling average by 1.8%.

 

 

Georgia has a history of voting against Trump.

In 2020, Biden won Georgia by 0.2%.

 

In 2020, Georgia elected two Democratic US Senators.

Raphael Warnock (D) won his runoff by 2.1%.

Jon Ossoff (D) won his runoff by 1.2%.

Trump endorsed their Republican opponents.

 

In 2022, Georgia Republican voters renominated Brian Kemp as Governor, and Brad Raffensperger for Secretary of State, even after these Republicans stood up to Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

Trump endorsed Kemp’s and Raffensperger’s Republican primary opponents.

Kemp and Raffensperger went on to win reelection.

 

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) won his reelection runoff in 2022 by 2.8%.

Trump endorsed Warnock’s Republican opponent.

 

 

Abortion rights will likely be top of mind for many Georgia voters.

The Georgia Supreme Court is considering a legal challenge to Georgia’s abortion ban, which prevents women from obtaining an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy.

At least two women in Georgia, Amber Thurman and Candi Miller, have died after they couldn’t access legal abortions and timely medical care in their state.

Past elections have shown a large majority of Americans support abortion rights, and Trump appointed the Supreme Court Justices that allowed the conservative majority on the court to overturn Roe v. Wade.

A federal law known as the Comstock Act gives the president the power to ban the mailing of a drug used in medication abortions.

This gives the president the power to ban a widespread form of first trimester abortions.

The stakes for abortion rights in this election are high, and after Roe v. Wade was overturned, voters, especially female voters, appreciate that reality.

 

 

 

 

Arizona

 

I predict Harris will win Arizona by 0%.

Once again, this means I predict Harris will win the state, and the margin, rounded to the nearest percent, will be 0%.

 

Trump leads 538’s Arizona polling average by 2.2%.

Ruben Gallego (D) leads 538’s polling average for the Arizona Senate race by 6%.

Arizona will be voting on a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights this year.

 

 

Arizona could easily go either way in the presidential race.

Arizona, like North Carolina, is a state Republicans would easily win if they could avoid nominating exceptionally objectionable candidates.

But this is one of the states where they just can’t get out of their own way. 

 

Kari Lake, the Republican nominee for the Arizona US Senate race, is a passionate supporter of the big lie that Donald Trump actually won the 2020 presidential election, but that the election was stolen from him.

Kari Lake refused to accept the outcome of her own 2022 race for Arizona Governor, which she lost by 0.7%.

I wrote an editorial opposing Kari Lake in 2022.

 

 

Trump could easily win Arizona, or any of the swing states mentioned above.

Trump’s most persuasive arguments with voters tend to be on immigration and the economy.

Swing voters could support Trump because their xenophobic attitudes lead them to support the candidate they believe will crack down harder on illegal immigration, which they wrongly blame for various economic and social ills.

Swing voters could also support Trump because they are upset at the high prices of groceries, which they blame on inflation and the economic policy of the Biden administration, to which Harris belongs.

This could be true despite the fact that overall, the economy is doing well, unemployment is down, and we avoided a serious recession after COVID due to effective use of Keynesian economic policy. 

Trump’s economic agenda of across the across-the-board tariffs would make groceries and other goods more expensive, effectively raising taxes on average Americans.

Trump also wants to cut taxes for rich people by extending the Trump Tax Cuts.

Together, these policies mean tax cuts for the rich, and tax hikes for the poor and middle class.

Trump’s tax policies would help the rich, and Harris’s would help everyone else.

But for some reason, voters still prefer Trump on the economy.

 

 

 

 

Florida

 

I predict Trump will win Florida by 4%.

 

Trump leads 538’s Florida polling average by 6.4%.

Rick Scott (R) leads 538’s polling average in the Florida Senate election by 4.6%.

There is an abortion rights amendment on the ballot in Florida.

Trump won Florida in 2020 by 3.4%.

 

Florida is a quintessentially Republican state.

In 2022, Marco Rubio (R) was reelected in the Florida Senate race by 16%.

In 2022, Florida reelected its tyrant Governor, Ron DeSantis (R), by 19%.

 

 

 

Electoral College

 

Adding up my state-by-state forecasts, I predict Harris will receive 319 electoral votes, and Trump will receive 219 electoral votes.

 

I will share my predictions for the US Senate, US House, Kansas Legislature, and Abortion Amendment elections in my next article.