Pennsylvania may decide the presidential race

 

With less than two weeks before election day, the US Presidential race is essentially a coin toss.

538 gives Donald Trump a 53% chance of winning the presidential election, and Kamala Harris a 47% chance of winning the race. 

 

 

 

 

538 considers Pennsylvania the most likely tipping point state, followed by North Carolina, Michigan, and Georgia.

The Tipping Point refers to the contest that is most likely to give a candidate enough electoral college votes to cross the threshold they need to win.

 

Today, we’re going to examine several electoral college maps to learn more about the potential outcomes of the 2024 Presidential Election.

 

 

 

The Starting Line

 

538’s model predicts the margin of victory for each state in the presidential race.

Seven states are widely considered swing states in this election: Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,  Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.

538 predicts each of these states will be decided by 2% or less.

The next closest race is in New Hampshire, which 538 predicts Harris will win by 5.4%.

 

Today, I’m assuming that only the seven swing states could actually be won by either major party candidate.

But election day could always surprise us.

 

 

Here are where the candidates begin if we assume that only the seven swing states are in play.

Harris begins with 226 electoral votes, and Trump begins with 219.

 

538’s Forecast

 

Here are 538’s predicted margins in the seven swing states.

 

 

538 predicts Harris will win Wisconsin and Michigan, and that Trump will win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

Under this scenario, Trump would win 287 electoral votes, and the election, and Harris would receive 251 electoral votes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Narrow Victories

 

Now, let’s take a look at plausible narrow victories for Harris and Trump.

 

Let’s start with a narrow Harris win.

In this scenario, let’s take 538’s map, but assume Harris wins Pennsylvania, instead of Trump.

If that happens, Harris would win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and Trump would win Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

 

Harris would win 270 electoral votes, and the presidency, and Trump would receive 268 electoral votes.

 

 

Next, let’s take a look at a narrow Trump win.

In this scenario, Trump wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, and Harris wins Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Trump would win 270 electoral votes, and the presidency, and Harris would receive 268 electoral votes.

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Landslides

 

Finally, let’s take a look at what the electoral map would look like if Trump or Harris swept all of the swing states.

 

If Trump won all of the swing states, he would receive 312 electoral votes, and Harris would receive 226.

 

 

 

 

If Harris won all of the swing state contests, she would win 319 electoral votes, and Trump would receive 219.

 

 

 

I plan to publish my own election predictions before election day. 

 

Time will tell what the 2024 Presidential Map will actually look like, once voters in the Swing States of America have their say.