Election day is almost here.
Tuesday, Nov. 5 will be the last opportunity to vote in the 2024 general election.
After the polls close, we will begin to learn election results for races up and down the ballot.
The presidential election and the races for control of the Senate and House are all incredibly close.
We should prepare for the possibility that we won’t know the winner of any of these three important contests on election night.
Presidency
Pennsylvania is the state most likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Pennsylvania also has a law that prevents election officials from early processing mail-in ballots, which makes it take longer to count votes in the critical swing state.
In 2020, pro-Trump protestors called for vote counting to be suspended in states where he was ahead, and to continue in states where he was behind.
Trump falsely claimed he won the election when it was still unclear who had won.
Trump tried to steal the election by organizing fake electors who falsely claimed Trump had won states that he had lost.
He ultimately incited a mob of his supporters to attack Congress to prevent Congress from certifying his electoral defeat.
Trump will absolutely try to steal the 2024 presidential election, even though he faces charges in two ongoing criminal cases for trying to steal the 2020 presidential election.
Trump was able to secure the Republican nomination for president after trying to steal the last election, placing him once again within a statistical coin flip from winning the presidency.
This demonstrates the profound frailty of American Democracy.
Trump should be in prison right now, not potentially on his way back to the White House.
Our Democracy is only as strong as our voters allow it to be, which is bad news for us.
In addition to Pennsylvania, the other swing states in this election are Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
If it all comes down to Pennsylvania, we’ll be waiting a while for the results.
The quickest outcome on election night will be if either Harris or Trump wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Winning all four states would secure victory for either Harris or Trump.
Senate
Senate control will likely be determined by Nebraska, where an independent challenger is running against a Republican incumbent.
Senate Control is especially important because of the Senate's role in confirming or blocking federal judicial nominations.
Nebraska and Ohio are the closest Senate races. If the Democrat wins in Ohio, and the Independent wins in Nebraska, and the Independent chooses to join Democrats in the Senate, Democrats can win Senate Control if they win the presidential election, securing the vote necessary to break a 50-50 tie in the chamber.
The next closest Senate races are in Wisconsin, Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Montana.
House
The race for control of the US House of Representatives is incredibly tight.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers 43 House Races to be Lean Democrat, Toss Up, or Lean Republican.
Six of these races are in California, five are in New York, four are in Pennsylvania, and three are in Michigan.
Abortion Amendments
Voters in 10 states will decide whether to amend their state constitutions to protect abortion rights.
(Map created by the Kaiser Family Foundation)
Polling shows broad support for the abortion rights amendments in these states.
In most states, the amendments need more than 50 percent support to win.
But there are two states where things work differently.
In Florida, Constitutional Amendments need more than 60 percent of the vote to be adopted.
In Nebraska, voters will vote on two separate state constitutional amendments related to abortion.
One amendment protects abortion rights.
The other limits abortion rights.
Voters have expressed confusion about the two competing ballot measures.
Advocates pushing for the anti-abortion amendment have falsely claimed their amendment protects abortion rights, while falsely claiming the amendment that actually protect abortion rights does not, according to an excellent Vox article.
The two abortion amendments are mutually exclusive.
In 1912, Nebraska passed a law that says that if two conflicting state constitutional ballot measures are approved by a majority of voters, the measure with the most votes will be adopted.
If both abortion amendments pass the 50% threshold, this would be the first time in history that Nebraska voters adopted conflicting constitutional amendments.
Kansas Legislature
Democrats have a real chance to break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature.
The Republican Supermajority gives Republican lawmakers the ability to override a veto from Gov. Laura Kelly (D) with only Republican votes.
The races that will decide whether Democrats break the Republican Supermajority will likely be close.
The Associated Press took many days to call the winners of the legislative races in the Kansas August Primary Election.
This was likely because many of these elections were decided by a small number of votes.
We may have a vague understanding of the likely results in the Kansas Legislative races on election night.
But we will likely have to wait a few days to be sure.
Election Night by Time Zone
Elections in the United States are administered at the state and local level.
Thus, voting procedures vary from state to state, including the local time when polls close.
And some states are split across two time zones.
Nevertheless, the location of states across time zones gives a rough estimate of when election results might begin to be reported for a given state.
Early on election night, the first important results will likely be calls in the abortion amendment elections and the competitive house races.
The presidential swing states and competitive Senate races will likely take longer to call.
Eastern Time Zone
Everyone will be anxiously awaiting to see how Pennsylvania votes in the presidential election, but they will be slow to count their ballots.
The presidential swing states of Georgia and North Carolina are also located in the Eastern Time Zone.
Michigan is mostly located in the Eastern Time Zone, but part of the state are located in the Central Time Zone.
Ohio’s Senate race is one of the closest Senate races in the country.
The Eastern Time Zone contains 20 House Races Sabato considers Leans or Toss Ups, more than any other time zone.
New York has five of these races, Pennsylvania has four, and Michigan has three.
Virginia and Ohio both have two.
The Florida Abortion Election is worth paying close attention to, because the abortion rights amendment needs to secure 60% of the vote to be adopted.
Florida is mostly located in the Eastern Time Zone, but part of the state is located in the Central Time Zone.
Central Time Zone
The presidential swing state of Wisconsin is located in the Central Time Zone.
Nebraska’s Senate race is the closest in the nation, and may be pivotal in determining Senate Control.
Nebraska is mostly located in the Central Time Zone, but part of the state is located in the Mountain Time Zone.
There are nine house races Sabato considers Leans or Tossups in the Central Time Zone.
Two are in Texas, and two are in Iowa.
The Nebraska Abortion Elections are worth watching to see if either or both amendments receive more than 50% of the vote.
If a majority of voters approve both amendments, then we have to see which one receives more votes, and thus is adopted.
I will be paying attention to the results of the Kansas Legislative Elections to see if Democrats can break the Republican Supermajority.
Kansas is mostly located in the Central Time Zone, but part of the state is located in the Mountain Time Zone.
Mountain Time Zone
The presidential swing state of Arizona is located in the Mountain Time Zone.
There are five House Races Sabato considers Leans or Tossups in the Mountain Time Zone.
Two of these races will take place in Arizona.
Pacific Time Zone
The presidential swing state of Nevada is located in the Pacific Time Zone.
There are eight House Races Sabato considers Leans or Tossups in the Pacific Time Zone.
Six of these races are in California.
Alaska Time Zone
Alaska has one representative in the US House.
This representative is elected in a statewide election.
Sabato considers Alaska’s US House Race to be a Toss Up.
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