Control of the US Senate may be determined by an election in Nebraska, where an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, is challenging a Republican incumbent.
The Nebraska Senate race is the closest Senate race in the country.
Democrats can retain Senate control if they win the presidency, Osborn wins in Nebraska, and he sides with Democrats in the Senate.
This would create a 50-50 tie, which would be broken by the vice president of the winning presidential ticket.
If Kamala Harris wins, that tie would be broken by Vice President Tim Walz.
Democrats currently hold 51 seats in the Senate. Republicans are likely to flip West Virginia and Montana, which means Democrats would have to flip a seat themselves to reach a 50-50 split that would allow them the chance to retain Senate control.
Currently, democrats’ best opportunity to do so lies in Osborn’s race in Nebraska.
Senate control is especially important because the Senate can confirm or block federal judicial nominations.
You can read more about the importance of maintaining Democratic control of the US Senate in an editorial I wrote last year.
Nebraska
Osborn is running against incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, who was first elected to the senate in 2012.
Fischer currently leads by 0.6% in 538’s polling average, which accounts for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology, and house effects.
538 displays six polls of the Nebraska Senate race that were conducted in September and October.
Osborn leads in five of those polls, four of which were sponsored by his campaign.
The poll showing Fischer in the lead was sponsored by her campaign.
Recent statewide elections in Nebraska haven't been especially competitive.
Fischer won her most recent reelection in 2018 by 19%.
Trump won Nebraska in 2020 by 19%.
Trump won Nebraska in 2016 by 25%.
Ohio
Now let’s take a look at the second closest Senate race in the country.
In Ohio, Incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for reelection against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.
Brown currently leads by 2.3%, according to 538’s polling average.
Brown leads in the seven most recent polls listed by 538.
Brown was first elected to the US Senate in 2006.
Brown won his most recent reelection in 2018 by 6.8%.
On the presidential level, Ohio has been reliably Republican for the last two elections.
Trump won Ohio in 2020 by 8.0%.
Trump won Ohio in 2016 by 8.1%.
Useful Tables
This table lists the 538 polling averages in the Senate battlegrounds as of Oct. 16.
This table contains additional information about the races, including the names of the candidates, and how these states voted the last time these seats were up for election in 2018.
Forecasts
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball provide qualitative ratings to describe the competitiveness of Senate and House races.
Here are Cook’s ratings for the 2024 Senate Races.
Sabato’s ratings for 2024 Senate Races can be found on the map below.
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