Wednesday, October 23, 2024

The race for House Control couldn’t be closer

 

With less than two weeks to election day, the race for control of the US House of Representatives couldn’t be closer.

538’s House Forecast gives both Democrats and Republicans a 50% chance to win the House majority. 

 

 


 

 

You can click on any of the images in this article to see a larger version of them.

 

 

The Forecast currently predicts Republicans will win 218 seats, and Democrats will win 217.

 


 

 

 

Here is how the forecast's overall prediction has changed over time. 




 

 

 

538’s House Forecast currently predicts seven races will be decided by 1% or less.

 


 

 

 

 

Closest races in 2022

 

Members of the US House are elected every two years. 


In 2022, 11 House races were decided by less than 1%.

This table lists the candidates running for those seats in 2024, alongside the margin of the outcome in the district in 2022.

Five of these races are rematches between the same candidates who ran against each other two years ago. 

 


 

 

 

 

Expert Forecasts

 

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball provide qualitative ratings for the competitiveness of US House and Senate races.

Here are Cook’s ratings for competitive House races. 

 


 

 

 

Here are Sabato’s ratings for competitive House races. 

 


 

 

 



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