Friday, December 16, 2022

My 2022 Political Donations

 

Now that the 2022 elections are over, it’s time to examine my 2022 political donations.

In this analysis, I will discuss the candidates and causes I supported financially and examine how they performed in their respective elections.

I published a similar analysis in October about my political donations in the 2020 cycle.

 

 

I donated $840 to political candidates in 2022.

That includes a $50 donation I made to the campaign against a proposed amendment to the Kansas Constitution that would give the Kansas Legislature the legal authority to enact a restrictive abortion ban.

All of my donations went to Democratic candidates or to defeat the constitutional amendment mentioned above.

I made no donations to Republican, independent, or third party candidates this year. 

 

 

 

 

Kansas Elections

 

I donated $115 to Gov. Laura Kelly's reelection campaign. 

 


 

I donated more money to Laura Kelly than any other political candidate this year.

I also voted for her in both the Democratic primary and general election. 

 

Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) defeated Derek Schmidt (R) in the Kansas Governor’s race by 2.2%.

Kelly received 49.5% of the vote, and Schmidt received 47.3%.

Independent candidate Dennis Pyle received 2.0%, and Libertarian Seth Cordell received 1.1%.

I discussed the candidates, their positions, and the results of the Kansas Governor’s race at length in an earlier analysis.

 

 

 

I donated $100 to Congresswoman Sharice Davids. 

 


 

Incumbent Sharice Davids (D), defeated Amanda Adkins (R) in the Kansas Third Congressional District.

Davids defeated Adkins by 12%.

Davids received 55% of the vote, and Adkins received 43%.

Libertarian Steven Hohe received 2%.

Davids won reelection despite running in a more difficult district, after the Kansas Legislature redrew the Kansas Congressional map following the 2020 Census.

I discussed Davids’ reelection and the battle over the Kansas Congressional map in a recent analysis.

 

 

 

I donated $100 to Chris Mann, the Democratic candidate for Kansas Attorney General. 

 


 

I voted for Mann in both the Democratic primary and the general election. 

Mann (D) lost to Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Attorney General's race by 15,892 votes, or 1.6%.

Incumbent Kansas AG Derek Schmidt (R) ran and lost in this year’s Kansas Governor’s race.

Kobach received 50.8% of the vote, and Mann received 49.2%.

I plan to discuss the Kansas Attorney General election at length in an upcoming analysis.

 

 

I donated $50 to the “Vote No” campaign to defeat a proposed constitutional amendment to the Kansas Constitution that would allow the Kansas Legislature to enact a restrictive abortion ban.

I discussed the history of the amendment in an article about a Kansas House race for a seat in the Kansas Legislature.

I voted against the amendment and donated to the campaign to reject the amendment at the ballot box. By doing so, I supported abortion rights in Kansas.

In the Aug. 2 primary, the amendment was resoundingly defeated by 18%.

“No” received 59% of the vote, and “Yes” received 41%.

 

 

I donated $365 to political candidates and causes in Kansas.

Donations to Kansas races account for 43% of my total political donations this year.

I donated to four candidates and causes in Kansas in 2022, three of which won their elections.

I donated $475 to candidates in elections outside of Kansas. Those donations account for 57% of my total donations.

 

 


 

 

 

 

Texas Attorney General

 

I donated $200 to Attorney General races in 2020.

Donations for Attorney General races account for 24% of my total political donations.

Both of the Attorney General candidates I supported financially lost their elections.

 

I donated $100 to Kansas Attorney General candidate Chris Mann.

My donations to Mann account for exactly half of my donations in Attorney General races this year.

 

I donated the other $100 to Democratic Texas Attorney General candidate Rochelle Garza. 

 


 

Garza lost the election for Texas Attorney General to incumbent Republican Ken Paxton by 10%.

Paxton received 53% of the vote, and Garza received 44%.

Libertarian Mark Ash received 3%.

 

Pre-election polls indicated the race for Texas AG was competitive, even though Paxton ended up winning by a large margin.

In an earlier article, I discussed the roles played by Paxton and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in constructing an Orwellian surveillance system targeting transgender youth by classifying gender-affirming medical care as child abuse.

The policy is being challenged in court.

This year, Abbot and Paxton handily won reelection against Democratic challengers who opposed that policy.

That means the policy still stands, and the legal challenges against it will continue.

 

 

 

 

US Senate

 

I donated $155 to candidates in US Senate races.

These donations account for 18% of my total donations.

I donated to 10 US Senate candidates in 2022, five of which won their elections.

 

 

I donated $45 to Raphael Warnock.

 


 

Incumbent Democratic Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock won reelection against Republican challenger Hershel Walker.

Their race proceeded to a runoff because Georgia holds runoff elections when neither candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. 

All of my donations to Warnock were made prior to the general election. None were made during the runoff.

 

In the Nov. 8 general election, Warnock (D) received 49.4% of the vote, and Walker (R) received 48.5%.

Libertarian Chase Oliver received 2.1%.

In the general election, Warnock led Walker by 1.0%.

But because no candidate received more than 50%, the election proceeded to a runoff.

 

In Jan. 2021, the two US Senate runoffs in Georgia determined control of the Senate.

In 2022, Democrats had already secured a 50-seat majority in the senate by the time the Georgia senate runoff took place.

This eliminated one of the best arguments for Hershel Walker, a deeply flawed candidate, who Republican voters might vote for if his election allowed Republicans to take control of the Senate.

 

In the Dec. 6 runoff, Warnock won by 2.8%.

Warnock won 51.4% of the vote, and Walker received 48.6%.

In the two-person runoff, Warnock increased his lead over Walker both in number of votes and percent of the total vote. 

Rounding to the nearest thousand, Warnock’s lead over Walker increased by 62,000 votes in the runoff compared to the general election. 

 

 

 

I donated $30 to Val Demings.

Demings lost the Florida US Senate race to incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio by 16%.

Rubio (R) received 58% of the vote, and Demings (D) received 41%.

 

I donated $30 to Charlie Booker.

Booker lost the Kentucky US Senate race to incumbent Republican Sen. Rand Paul by 24%.

Paul (R) received 62% of the vote, and Booker (D) received 38%.

 

 

 

I donated $20 to Catherine Cortez Masto. 

 


 

Incumbent Democratic Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto narrowly won reelection against Republican challenger Adam Laxalt by 7,928 votes, or 0.8%.

Cortez Masto (D) received 48.8% of the vote, and Laxalt (R) received 48.0%.

In Nevada, voters can choose to vote for “none of these candidates.”

“None” received 1.2%.

Nonpartisan candidate Barry Lindemann received 0.8%, Libertarian Neil Scott received 0.6%, and Independent American Party candidate Barry Rubinson received 0.5%.

 



I donated $5 to John Fetterman. 

 


 

Fetterman won the Pennsylvania US Senate race by defeating Mehmet Oz by 5%.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey chose not to run for reelection.

Fetterman (D) received 51% of the vote, and Oz (R) received 46%.

Fetterman’s victory flipped the seat from Republican to Democratic.

His election was the only party flip in a US Senate race this year. 

 

 

 

I donated $5 to Mark Kelly. 

 


 

 

Incumbent Democratic Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly won reelection against Republican challenger Blake Masters by 5%.

Kelly received 51% of the vote, and Masters received 47%.

Libertarian Marc Victor received 2%. 

 

 

 

I donated $5 to Maggie Hassan. 

 


 

Incumbent Democratic New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan won reelection against Republican challenger Don Bolduc by 9%.

Hassan (D) received 54% of the vote, and Bolduc received 44%. 

 

  

 

I donated $5 to Mandela Barnes.

Barnes lost the Wisconsin US Senate race to incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson by 1.0%.

Johnson (R) received 50.4% of the vote, and Barnes (D) received 49.4%.

 

I donated $5 to Cheri Beasley.

Beasley lost the North Carolina US Senate race to Ted Budd by 3%.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr chose not to run for reelection.

Budd (R) received 51% of the vote, and Beasley (D) received 47%.

Libertarian Shannon Bray and Green Party candidate Matthew Hoh each received 1%.

 

I donated $5 to Tim Ryan.

Ryan lost the Ohio US Senate race to JD Vance by 7%.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Rob Portman chose not to run for reelection.

Vance (R) received 53% of the vote, and Ryan (D) received 47%.

 

 

 

After the 2022 elections, Democrats expanded their senate majority from 50 to 51 seats. All Democratic incumbents won reelection, and Fetterman flipped the Pennsylvania senate seat.

 

By percent margin of victory, the most competitive US Senate races this year were Nevada (D+0.8%), Wisconsin (R+1.0%), Georgia (D+2.8%), North Carolina (R+3.2%), Arizona (D+4.9%), Pennsylvania (D+4.9%), Ohio (R+6.6%), and New Hampshire (D+9.1%).

 

 

 

Gubernatorial Elections

 

I donated $265 to Gubernatorial candidates in 2022.

Gubernatorial is a term often used in political coverage that means, “relating to a state governor or office of the governor.” 

My Gubernatorial donations account for 32% of my total political donations this year.

 

I donated $115 to Laura Kelly’s gubernatorial reelection campaign in Kansas.

My donations to Kelly account for 43% of my donations in Gubernatorial elections.

 

I donated $150 to Gubernatorial candidates outside of Kansas.

My Gubernatorial donations to candidates outside Kansas account for 57% of my Gubernatorial donations this year.

 

Only two Gubernatorial candidates I supported financially won their elections this year, Laura Kelly in Kansas and Katie Hobbs in Arizona.

 

 

 

I donated $35 to Texas Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke. 

 


 

Beto O’Rourke lost the Texas Gubernatorial election to incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by 11%.

Abbott (R) received 55% of the vote, and O’Rourke (D) received 44%.

 

I donated more money to Rochelle Garza than Beto O’Rourke because I believed her race for Texas AG was competitive, while Beto’s bid for Texas governor was not.

In the end, neither race ended up being close. Beto lost by 11%, and Rochelle lost by 10%.

The 2022 general election didn’t turn out well for the candidates I supported in Texas.

 

 

 

The 2022 general election also didn’t turn out well for the candidates I supported in Florida.

Val Demings (D) lost the Florida US Senate race against Marco Rubio (R) by 16%.

 

I made my first donation in the Florida Gubernatorial race in February, when I donated $30 to Charlie Crist.

At the time, I didn’t realize Crist had a Democratic primary opponent, so in May I donated $30 to Nikki Fried.

Both donations were motivated almost entirely by my desire to defeat Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Because the race was never considered competitive, I didn’t make any additional donations after these two early donations.

I didn’t initially have a preference between the Democratic candidates. Although after I followed both Crist and Fried on Twitter, I did end up with a slight preference for Crist by the end of the primary.

 

Charlie Crist won the Florida Democratic Gubernatorial Primary by 24%.

Crist received 60% of the vote, and Fried received 35%.

Candace Daniel received 3%, and Robert Willis received 2%.

 

Crist lost the Florida Gubernatorial election to DeSantis by a whopping 19%.

DeSantis (R) received 59% of the vote, and Crist (D) received 40%.

 

 

 

I donated $30 to Stacey Abrams.

Abrams lost the Georgia Gubernatorial election to incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp by 8%.

Kemp (R) received 53% of the vote, and Abrams (D) received 46%.

Libertarian Shane Hazel received 1%.

 

 

I donated $20 to Katie Hobbs. 

 


 

Hobbs won the Arizona Gubernatorial election against Republican election denier and conspiracy theorist Kari Lake.

Hobbs defeated Lake by only 17,117 votes, or 0.7%.

Hobbs (D) received 50.3% of the vote, and Lake (R) received 49.7%.

In October, I discussed the danger posed by Lake to the future of free and fair elections in Arizona and the potentially disastrous role that could play in the 2024 presidential election. I called for Arizona voters to reject Lake in a landslide loss.

Thankfully, Kari Lake lost, but just barely.

 

 

 

I donated $5 to Steve Sisolak.

Incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak lost the Nevada Gubernatorial election to Republican challenger Joe Lombardo by 15,386 votes, or 1.5%.

Lombardo (R) received 48.8% of the vote, and Sisolak (D) received 47.3%.

Libertarian Brandon Davis received 1.5%.

It was a Nevada election, so “None of these candidates” was an option.

“None” received 1.5%.

Independent American Party candidate Ed Bridges received 1.0%. 

 

 

 

US House

 

I donated $170 to candidates in US House races in 2022.

My donations in US House races account for 20% of my total political donations this year.

 

I donated $100 to Sharice Davids who ran for reelection in the Kansas Third Congressional District.

My donations to Davids account for 59% of my donations to US House candidates this year.

 

I donated $70 to US House candidates outside of Kansas.

My donations to candidates outside of Kansas account for 41% of my donations to US House candidates this year.

I donated to two US House candidates outside Kansas during primary elections. Both of those candidates lost their primaries.

 

 

 

I donated $40 to Michael Shure, a reporter and analyst for The Young Turks, an online progressive news and public affairs network. 

 


 

Shure lost in the nonpartisan primary to represent the California 37th Congressional District in the US House.

The race was for an open seat because incumbent Democrat Karen Bass left to run in the election for Los Angeles Mayor, which she won.

The 37th district is located entirely in Los Angeles County.

California holds non-partisan “jungle” primaries, where the top two candidates proceed to the general election, regardless of which parties those candidates are from.

Michael Shure (D) finished in seventh and last place in the primary, where he only received 2.5% of the vote.

Sydney Kamlager (D) received 43.7% of the vote, and Jan Perry (D) received 18.5%.

Daniel Lee (D) received 17.9%.

Two Republican candidates each received less than 10% of the vote.

Two Democrats, Kamlager and Perry, proceeded to the general election.

 

In the general election, Kamlager won by 28%.

Kamlager received 64%, and Perry received 36%. 

 

 

 

 

 

The Democratic primary between incumbent Henry Cuellar and progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros in the Texas 28th Congressional District featured a stark contrast between the leading candidates.

The Texas 28th Congressional District is located in south Texas and borders Mexico along the Rio Grande River.  

 

Cuellar was the only Democrat in the US House who voted against the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have protected abortion rights nationwide.

Cisneros is an immigration attorney who supports abortion rights and Medicare for All.

 

Cuellar’s home and campaign office were searched by the FBI in Jan. 2022.

CBN News reported the FBI’s search of Cuellar’s home was part of an investigation related to Azerbaijan and several US businessmen. 

After the searches, Cuellar’s attorney Josh Berman told CBS News that Cuellar was not the target of the federal investigation.

Berman said Cuellar fully cooperated with the investigation.


 

Cuellar worked with other moderate Democrats in the US House to fast track the bipartisan infrastructure bill in an effort to decouple it from legislative progress on a larger and more ambitious reconciliation bill Congress was considering at the time.

This led to unnecessary tensions between moderate and progressive Democrats in Congress and made it more difficult to pass the reconciliation bill.

Congress didn't pass the reconciliation bill, known as the Build Back Better Act, because moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin ultimately decided not to support it.

Parts of Build Back Better were later included in the Inflation Reduction Act.

Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, with Manchin’s support, before President Joe Biden signed it into law.

 

In the March 1 Democratic primary, Cuellar received 48.7% of the vote, and Cisneros received 46.6%.

Tannya Benavides received 4.7%. 

Cuellar led by 1,005 votes, or 2.0%. 

But the primary proceeded to a runoff because none of the candidates received more than 50%.

 

During an appearance on Meet the Press, Cisneros argued that Cuellar could be a source of frustration for Democrats nationwide if Democrats expanded their majority in the US Senate and retained a narrow majority in the US House.

Cisneros said that scenario could lead Cuellar to thwart key Democratic goals, as his vote might be necessary for them to pass.

“There's so many key issues where he's always siding with Republicans, and he could become the Joe Manchin of the House,” she said. “We don't want Henry Cuellar to be the deciding vote on the future of our fundamental freedoms and rights in this country. We just can't risk that.”

 


 

I found Cisneros’s argument convincing, and I donated $30 to her campaign on May 15.

 

Cuellar won the May 24 Democratic primary runoff by only 281 votes, or 0.6%.

Cuellar received 50.3% of the vote, and Cisneros received 49.7%.

 

Cuellar handily won his general election contest against Republican challenger Cassy Garcia.

In the Nov. 8 general election, Cuellar beat Garcia by 13%.

Cuellar received 57%, and Garcia received 43%. 

 

 

 

 

Donations by Office Sought

 

I donated $265 to Gubernatorial elections, $200 to Attorney General races, $170 to US House contests, $155 to US Senate elections, and $50 to oppose a state constitutional amendment.

 

As a percentage of my total donations, 32% went to Gubernatorial elections, 24% went to Attorney General races, 20% went to US House contests, 18% went to US Senate elections, and 6% went to oppose a state constitutional amendment.

 


 

 

 

 

 

Donations by Location

 

I donated $365 to Kansas races, $165 to Texas races, $90 to Florida races, $75 to Georgia races, $40 went to California races, $30 to Kentucky races, $25 to Nevada races, $25 to Arizona races, and $25 to other races.

Here is a breakdown of the candidates who won and lost based on the state where their election took place.

Three Kansas candidates and causes won their elections.

Laura Kelly won the Kansas Gubernatorial election. Sharice Davids won her US House race. And the constitutional amendment to eliminate abortion rights in Kansas was defeated.

However, Chris Mann lost the race for Kansas Attorney General.

 

Rochelle Garza lost the race for Texas Attorney General, and Beto O’Rourke lost the race for Texas Governor.

 

Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried lost the Florida Gubernatorial election, and Val Demings lost the US Senate race in Florida.

 

Raphael Warnock won the US Senate election in Georgia. But Stacey Abrams lost the Georgia Gubernatorial election.

 

Michael Shure lost his US House race in California. 

 

Charlie Booker lost the US Senate race in Kentucky.  

 

Catherine Cortez Masto won the US Senate race in Nevada. But Steve Sisolak lost the Nevada Gubernatorial race.

 

Mark Kelly won the US Senate race in Arizona, and Katie Hobbs won the Arizona Gubernatorial election.

 

John Fetterman won the US Senate race in Pennsylvania, and Maggie Hassan won the US Senate race in New Hampshire.

 

Mandela Barnes lost the US Senate race in Wisconsin. Cheri Beasley lost the US Senate race in North Carolina. And Tim Ryan lost the US Senate race in Ohio.

 

As a percentage of my total political donations, 43% went to Kansas races, 20% went to Texas races, 11% went to Florida races, 9% went to Georgia races, and 17% went to other races.

 

 






Donations by Month

 

By far, I donated the most money to political candidates in February, when I donated $240.

My second-highest month was May, when I donated $120.

My third-highest month was in October, when I donated $115. 

 


 

 

All of my donations from February through May were initial $30 donations to 13 candidates.

From June onward, all of my subsequent donations were smaller. They ranged from $5 to $25.

I front loaded my donations this year to give the candidates I supported the most time to make effective use of my financial support.

 

In the final stretch of the campaign, from September through November, I donated to Laura Kelly, Sharice Davids, Chris Mann, Rochelle Garza, Raphael Warnock, Katie Hobbs, and Catherine Cortez Masto.

I believed all of these candidates were in competitive races.

I had already donated to each of those candidates earlier in the year.

 

 

 

 

 

Donations by Win-Loss

 

I donated $365 to candidates and causes that won their elections.

I donated $475 to candidates who lost their elections.

As a percentage of my total political donations, 43% went to candidates and causes that won, and 57% went to candidates who lost.

 

 


 

 

Now let’s calculate the success ratio by the number of candidates who won and lost, rather than based on the amount of money donated to candidates who won or lost.

I donated to 23 political campaigns in 2022.

Nine candidates and causes won their elections, and 14 candidates lost their elections.

As a percentage of the campaigns I donated to, 39% won their elections, and 61% lost their elections.

 

 

Nationwide, Democrats performed spectacularly well in 2022, despite significant political headwinds.

I plan to examine the factors that led to this outcome in a future analysis.

There is still plenty to unpack about this year’s midterm elections.

 

Democrats only lost nine seats in the US House of Representatives and gained a seat in the US Senate.

Going into the next Congress, Republicans will only have a five-seat majority in the US House.

Republicans will have 222 seats, and Democrats will have 213.

 

Given these aggregate results, Democrats had a great year in 2022.

A lot of horrible Republican candidates were defeated, and many quality Democrats won their races.

That means the overall outcome of the 2022 elections were good for Democrats like myself.