Grading my 2024 Senate Predictions

 

Before the 2024 general election, I made several predictions.

In this article, I will evaluate my 2024 Senate predictions, and 538’s Senate polling averages, which I discussed during my election coverage.

 

This article is part of an ongoing series that explores the results of the 2024 general election.

Previously, I covered the results of the elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate.

 

 

 

My Predictions

 

I correctly predicted Republicans would win control of the US Senate.

But I incorrectly predicted the number of seats Republicans would win.

I predicted there would be 51 Republicans in the US Senate after the election. Instead, there are 53.

 

 

On November 3, two days before the election, I published my predictions for eight US Senate contests I believed would be decided by less than 5%.

You can click any of the tables in this series to view a larger version of them.  

 

As you can see, I incorrectly predicted the winners of the Senate races in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I correctly predicted the winners in six states: Nebraska, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin, Montana, and Michigan. 

Therefore, I correctly predicted the winners in six of the eight contests.  

 

 

 

I attempted to predict the margin of victory in these races to the nearest percent.

 

Republicans outperformed my predictions in all eight races.

On average, my predictions were 5.5% away from the actual margins in these contests.

I’d say my predictions held up pretty well.

 

 

My closest prediction was in Wisconsin, where I was only 2% away from the actual margin.

My least accurate prediction was in Florida, where I was 10% off from the actual margin.

My second least accurate prediction was in Nebraska, where I was 7% off from the actual margin.

 

 

I tried to predict which races would be decided by less than 5%.

I correctly predicted Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio would be decided by less than 5%.

I incorrectly predicted Florida, Texas, Montana, and Nebraska would be decided by less than 5%. Instead, they were decided by more than 5%.

Nevada and Arizona were decided by less than 5%, which I hadn’t predicted.

 

 

 

Grading 538’s Polling Averages

 

538 is a news organization that covers US politics and elections.

538 is best known for its polling averages and election forecasts.

 

At 6 a.m., on election day, Nov. 5, FiveThirtyEight stopped updating its polling averages. 

The next two tables compare 538’s final polling averages for the 2024 US Senate races to the actual margins in those races.

The first table is organized by the actual margin, with the closest races listed first.

 

The second table, which shows the same information, is organized by 538’s final polling averages, with elections they predicted would be the closest, listed first.

 

In the tables above, Republican candidates outperformed 538’s polling averages in 11 of the Senate elections, and Democratic candidates outperformed 538’s polling averages in two Senate elections. 

 

 

The final 538 polling average was less than one percent away from the actual margin in Montana, Maryland, and New Mexico.  

538’s largest miss was in Florida, where the Rick Scott, the Republican candidate, outperformed 538’s final polling average by 7.8%.

 

 

On average, 538’s final polling averages were only 2.9% away from the actual margins in these races.

 

I predicted Democrats would outperform their Senate polls.

Instead, Republicans outperformed their Senate polls.

On average, Republicans outperformed 538’s final senate polling averages by 2.8%.

 

 

I found 538’s final senate polling averages through 538’s Senate Forecast, which is now only accessible through the Wayback Machine, a service provided by the Internet Archive.

 

 

538’s Senate Forecast predicted Republicans would control 52 seats after the election.

Their forecast was off by only one seat.

538’s Senate Forecast predicted Bob Casey Jr. (D) would win in Pennsylvania. Dave McCormick (R) won, instead.

The Pennsylvania Senate race was the closest Senate race in 2024, as you can see in the table below.

 

 

 

 

 

Early 538 Polling Averages

 

Polling tends to be the most accurate right before an election.

But people who follow politics generally begin to pay attention to polling much earlier than that.

How accurate were 538’s Senate polling averages a few weeks before the election?

 

 

I published a table of 538’s polling averages for Senate races in "Nebraska may determine Senate Control,” which I published on Oct. 16.

Therefore, these polling averages are from 20 days before the election.

 

 

The following table compares these early 538 Senate polling averages to the final results.

 

Republican candidates outperformed the early 538 polling averages in 10 races.

Only one Democratic candidate, Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland, outperformed the early 538 polling average in her race.

 

 

The early 538 Senate polling averages predicted the correct winner in 9 of the 11 contests. The early averages predicted incorrect Senate winners in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

 

 

The early 538 Senate polling average was the most accurate in Montana. The Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy, only outperformed the early polling average by 1.7%.

The early 538 Senate polling averages were the least accurate in Florida, Nevada, Nebraska, and Ohio. 

Republican candidates outperformed all four of these polling averages by more than 5%.  

Florida was the least accurate prediction among the early polling averages. 

Rick Scott, the Republican candidate, outperformed the early polling average in Florida by 8.2%.  

 

 

On average, the early 538 Senate polling averages were 4.8% away from the final margin.

On average, Republican candidates outperformed the early polling averages by 4.2%.

 

Even these early polling averages were fairly accurate, compared to the final results.

 

 

Now let’s compare these three sets of predictions.

My predicted margins were the least accurate, 538’s early polling averages were in the middle, and 538’s final polling averages were the most accurate.

Nevertheless, all of these predictions were fairly accurate, overall.

 

 

 

Lessons

 

So what lessons, if any, should Democrats take from the 2024 Senate elections?

 

There were many competitive Senate races in 2024.

That made it challenging for activists to know where to dedicate their time, money, and attention.

Personally, my coverage focused on the Senate races in Nebraska and Ohio.

Many liberal political news programs focused on the Senate races in Texas, Florida, and Montana.

 

 

Considering the final margins, Democratic activists should have spent more of their time and money on the Senate elections in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which were each decided by less than 1%.

But the polls underestimated Republicans, which obscured the relative importance of these races, especially considering there were so many competitive Senate elections competing for our attention. 

 

Going forward, I will be more likely to assume Senate races in swing states will be competitive, even if polling indicates otherwise.

 

 

 

I believe Democrats should focus more on races they need to defend, and focus less on their fantasies that they might flip a seat by defeating a particularly odious Republican in a consistently red state like Texas or Florida.

In the end, Ted Cruz (R) won reelection in Texas by 8.5%, and Rick Scott (R) won reelection in Florida by a whopping 12.8%.

The Nebraska Senate race was more competitive than the races in Florida, Texas, and Montana.

But even there, Deb Fischer (R) won by 6.7%, despite a strong showing by Independent candidate Dan Osborn.

Sometimes, it’s worth investing in stretch goals, but not when doing so comes at the expense of neglecting more competitive races Democrats might otherwise lose.

 

 

In 2026, the polls might not underestimate Republicans, like they did in 2024.

Democrats will likely perform better in 2026 than they did in 2024.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t valuable lessons we can take from the electoral losses we suffered last year. 

 

 

Little Apple Pride, 2025

 

The Little Apple Pride celebration took place in Manhattan, Kansas, on April 12.

Here is the video I recorded of this year’s Little Apple Pride Parade.

 

 

I observed signs with the following messages in the parade.

• A Just World for All
• Today I hope you know U R Seen!
• Riley County Democratic Party
• Saint Paul’s Episcopal Church
• Trans Healthcare Saves Lives

 

 

This year, I wore my rainbow phoenix shirt, just like I did last year.

 

 

 

I purchased the shirt from Second Wind, a worker-owned company that publishes video game reviews.

Second Wind also creates Adventure is Nigh, an ongoing multi-season Dungeons and Dragons campaign.

 

 

 

I wore a necklace with a transgender symbol, and dragon pins displaying the colors of the genderfluid and transgender flags. 

 

 

I showcased my LGBT button collection in previous articles on Meticulous Musings.

 

 

I painted my fingernails pink for the celebration. 

 

 

This is the third year I’ve recorded the Little Apple Pride Parade.

In 2023 and 2024, I discussed the pride flags that appeared in the parade.

 

Most of the flags in this year’s parade were also in last year’s parade. These include the rainbow, transgender, bisexual, pansexual, progress, lesbian, and asexual pride flags.

 

You can read my article on the 2024 Little Apple Pride celebration to learn about those flags.

Three flags appeared this year that weren’t part of last year’s parade. They are the Philadelphia, Gay Man, and Demisexual pride flags.

I will discuss these flags, next.

 

 

 

Philadelphia Pride Flag

 

 

In 2017, the City of Philadelphia debuted a new LGBT pride flag.

The Philadelphia Pride Flag added black and brown stripes to the top of the six stripe rainbow flag.

Philadelphia’s Office of LGBT Affairs created the flag to draw attention to non-white LGBT people and their concerns, as part of a larger effort to combat racism in the city’s gay bars.

 

 

Daniel Quasar, a nonbinary artist and designer, incorporated black and brown stripes, representing black and brown LGBT people, into the Progress Pride Flag, which Quasar created in 2018.

At the pride events I have attended, the Philadelphia pride flag has been less common than the progress pride flag and the six-stripe rainbow flag.

You can read about the rainbow flag and its variants in my article about last year’s Little Apple Pride Parade.

 

 

 

Gay Man 

 

During the pride parade, someone displayed a fan with the colors of the Gay Man flag. 

 

 

 

 

 

The Gay Man flag, shown above, was created by Mod Hermy in 2016. 

Hermy is nonbinary and bisexual. 

Hermy created the flag in response to an anonymous commenter who asked about creating a flag for gay men specifically, because the rainbow pride flag was increasingly used to represent the LGBT community as a whole. 

The original flag design was published on the ask-pride-color-schemes Tumblr account. 

Hermy worked with a Tumblr user, who is gay and trans, who came up with meanings for each of the flag's stripes.

 

 

Gay men primarily use the rainbow pride flag and its variants, but the Gay Man flag occasionally appears at pride events, even though it’s considerably less common.

 

 

 

Demisexual

 

 I observed someone displaying a demisexual flag in the parade.

 

 

 

 

A demisexual is someone who only experiences sexual attraction after they have formed an emotional bond with someone they are close to.

 

I discussed demisexual and other asexual spectrum identities in my article on Sexual and Romantic Orientations.

 

 

 

After the Parade

 

I watched the somewhat disorganized drag performances at Wefald Pavilion in City Park, and the better organized drag performances that evening at McCain Auditorium, many of which were quite compelling.

 

 

I visited booths for local organizations during the pride celebration.

At one of the booths, I learned about an upcoming anti-Trump protest, organized by our local Indivisible chapter in Manhattan, Kansas. 

 

I took part in the anti-Trump protest, and many more that followed. 

 

 

Genderfluid and Agender

 

This article is part of Season 3 of “LGBT by the Numbers.”

Season 3 explores the results of the Gender Census, an annual online global survey of nonbinary people.

Nonbinary describes someone who has a gender identity that isn’t exclusively male or female.

This series examines how the popularity of various nonbinary identity terms has changed over the past decade. 

I primarily focus on the results from 2015 to 2024, for reasons I explained in previous articles.

 

We’re beginning with the most popular terms, before making our way to the less common ones.

Top of the Charts discussed the terms nonbinary, queer, trans, and transgender.

Additional Umbrella Terms discussed gender non-conforming, genderqueer, and enby.

The next article discussed Transmasculine and Transfeminine.

For a basic introduction to terms and concepts related to transgender and nonbinary identity, you can read Gender Identity and Biological Sex.

 

 

 

The top nine identity terms in the Gender Census are umbrella terms, which means they describe multiple groups of people with more specific identities.

The most common specific nonbinary identities, genderfluid and agender, are tenth and eleventh on the list.

We will discuss these identities today.

 

 

It’s worth bearing in mind that some people use nonbinary to describe their gender identity, without also using an additional, more-specific term.

It’s also possible to imagine someone using many of the umbrella terms, which we have previously discussed, without using an additional, more-specific identity term.

 

 

Genderfluid and agender have remained fairly close together over the past 10 years in the Gender Census.

 

 

Over the past decade, they were the farthest apart in 2017, when agender outperformed genderfluid by 5.2%.

Although not shown on this graph, “fluid gender” (31.3%) outperformed agender (21.6%) in the 2013 Gender Census.

Agender outperformed genderfluid from 2015 to 2020.

Genderfluid outperformed agender from 2021 to 2024.

 

I created the graphs in this article using flourish, a website that allows users to create compelling visual aids.

You can view larger versions of these graphs by clicking on them. 

 

 

 

Genderfluid

 

Genderfluid describes someone whose gender changes over time.

I personally identify as genderfluid.

Some genderfluid people have a strong perception of their gender at all times. 

But many others, like me, do not.

Many genderfluid people experience fluctuations in their gender between male and female.

That is certainly true for myself.

Others are fluid between other genders, such as female and nonbinary, or male and nonbinary.

 

 

Meticulous Musings has featured videos where genderfluid people discuss their experiences. If you want to learn more, I encourage you to check them out.

 

 

 

The genderfluid checkbox in the Gender Census has changed subtly over time.

In 2013, it was, “fluid gender.”

From 2015-17, it was, “fluid gender / genderfluid.”

From 2018- 24, it has been, “genderfluid / fluid gender.”

 

 

In 2015, genderfluid received 31.2%.

Genderfluid declined until it reached its minimum of 21% in 2019.

Genderfluid rebounded with a gradual rise to 25.5% in 2023, before declining slightly to 24.7% in 2024.

From 2015-24, genderfluid’s range has been 10.2%.

  

“Fluid gender” received 31.3% in 2013, which is only slightly more than the 31.2% its counterpart received in 2015.

 

 

Genderfluid was the tenth most popular term in the Gender Census in 2023 and 2024.

That’s a lot further down the list than it used to be.

In 2013, “fluid gender” was the fourth most common term.

In 2015, “fluid gender / genderfluid” was also the fourth most common term.

 

 

 

Agender

 

An agender person feels they don’t have a gender.

This can be a confusing concept to understand.

Agender is itself a specific nonbinary gender, used to describe someone whose internal experience of their gender is that they don’t have one.

Someone who is agender may dress or present themselves in a way that is traditionally seen as masculine or feminine, but to them, these are simply things they do because they enjoy them, rather than because they view these things as representing an underlying gender identity.

 

 

I have shared some wonderful videos created by Chandler Wilson, an agender YouTube creator who has publicly shared their experiences.

If you would like to learn more, I recommend you watch their videos.

 

 

Agender reached its maximum in 2017, when it received 33.1%.

From there, it declined until 2020, when it reached its minimum at 21.9%.

Agender grew until 2023 when it received 23.8%, before falling slightly to 23.1% in 2024.

From 2015-24, agender’s range has been 11.2%.

 

 

In 2013, agender received 21.6%, slightly less than the 21.9% it received in 2020.

 

 

Agender was the eleventh most popular term in the Gender Census in 2023 and 2024.  

Previously, agender was higher up the list. 

In 2015 and 2017, agender was the third most popular identity term in the Gender Census.

 

 

In 2024, agender was the eleventh most popular checkbox, and the eleventh least popular checkbox, making it the median identity term in last year’s Gender Census.

 

 

 

Discussion

 

I first discussed genderfluid and agender identities in Non-binary genders: Beyond male and female, which I published in 2015.

 

I discussed genderfluid and agender identities again in Season 1 of LGBT by the Numbers.

Gender Identity and Biological Sex discussed genderfluid and agender identities, and their associated pride flags.  

Nonbinary Nomenclature discussed how genderfluid and agender performed in the 2023 Gender Census.

I published both of these articles in 2023.

 

 

 

The following example offers a way to better understand some of the identities we have discussed so far.

Let's imagine someone asks, "Are you male or female?" 

Remember, someone's gender and biological sex aren't the same thing, and they don't always align. 

If someone believes they can't honestly and accurately describe their gender with only one of these two options, they are nonbinary. 

Genderfluid is the most common identity among people who would reply to the question by answering, "both."

Although, some genderfluid people are fluid between genders other than male and female.

Agender is the most common identity among people who would reply to the question by answering, "neither."  

We can also learn more about these identities by looking more closely at the data from the Gender Census. 

Last year, 5.2% of respondents identified as both genderfluid and agender. 

There are many ways people might identify with both terms, but one of the simplest is that agender could be one of the genders someone is fluid between. 

 

Taking this overlap into account, 42.6% of respondents identify as genderfluid, agender, or both. 

Therefore, a majority of respondents, 57.4%, don't identify as either genderfluid or agender. 

But considered together, genderfluid and agender (42.6%) would be the fourth most common term in the Gender Census, after trans (44.7%), and before "a person / human / [my name] / 'I'm Just Me' " (39.1%).

Put simply, many nonbinary people identify as genderfluid, agender, or both. 

 

More Graphs

 

Now that we’ve looked closely at the lines for genderfluid and agender, let’s return to a graph that appeared earlier in this series.

This graph shows how the sixth through eleventh most popular identity terms from 2024 have performed over the past decade.

 

 

You can see where the lines for enby and transmasculine surpassed the lines for genderfluid and agender.

You can also see that gender non-conforming and genderqueer have always outperformed genderfluid and agender.

 

 

 

 

We have now discussed all eleven identity terms that received more than 20% in last year’s Gender Census.

These are also the only terms that have received more than 20% at any point from 2015 to the present.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Next, let’s take a look at a really chaotic graph.

This graph shows all of the terms that received between 20% and 50% in the Gender Census from 2015 to 2024.

 

 

During this time, nonbinary has always received more than 50%, so its line can’t be seen.

Only part of the line for queer can be seen, before it surpassed 50% in 2022.

 

 

This graph shows the interactions between the lines for many identities that can’t easily be seen in simpler graphs.

It’s especially useful for comparing how identities that have fallen in popularity over the past decade interact with identities that have risen in popularity.

There are many places where identities are essentially tied, and places where lines cross paths. 

 

 

You can see how agender briefly surpassed trans in 2017.

You can see how trans was the second most popular term in 2018, behind nonbinary, because genderqueer had declined, and queer hadn’t yet been added as a checkbox.

You can also see where enby and transmasculine surpassed 20%.

 

 

 

 

Identities Worth Knowing

 

There are a theoretically infinite number of nonbinary genders.

The Gender Census is an incredibly valuable tool that allows people to know which nonbinary identities are the most common.

And to a surprising degree, the most common nonbinary identities are fairly consistent, from year to year.

 

 

There are times when a nonbinary person chooses to discuss their gender with a friend, family member, employer, or someone else.

It would be greatly beneficial to everyone involved for the person learning this information to already be somewhat familiar with the terms and ideas that will be discussed during this conversation.

Otherwise, the nonbinary person will be required to explain their identity terms, and the entire concept of nonbinary identity itself, to someone who has absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

 

 

If you want to be an ally, it would be really helpful if you could learn about these ideas BEFORE you find yourself in a situation where you will need to know them.

 

You don’t need to know every possible nonbinary identity someone might use, but you should be familiar with the ones that are most common.

These are the terms we have covered in this series thus far.

 

 

 

In the years ahead, you will continue to hear conservative Republican politicians rally crowds of profoundly ignorant people by proclaiming, “there are only two genders.”

On cue, these crowds will erupt into thunderous applause at the prospect of someone telling them they are wise for being so close minded.

Many people, listening to this, will know the conservative politician is being a transphobic asshole, but for the life of them, they won’t know what those additional genders are.

 

 

Because you read this series, you will know a lot more than that.

The group of people disparaged by these remarks are nonbinary people, who have a gender identity that isn’t exclusively male or female.

About 1% of US adults are nonbinary.

The most common identities used by nonbinary people are umbrella terms, like queer, transgender, and genderqueer.

Some people use nonbinary to describe their gender, without also using a more specific term.

The most common specific nonbinary identities are genderfluid and agender.

 

 

So not only will you know that the conservative politician is wrong, but why.

You will also know the basic facts about the ideas and identities they are looking to disparage and suppress.

 

 

 

In addition to hearing these identity terms, you might also see the colorful pride flags associated with them.

The most common gender identity flags are the transgender, nonbinary, and genderfluid flags.

I discussed these flags in Gender Identity and Biological Sex. 

 

 

 

 

Where next?

 

We have now discussed all eleven identity terms that received more than 20% in last year’s Gender Census.

These are also the only terms that received more than 20% at any point from 2015 to the present.

I recommend allies and the public become familiar with these most-common nonbinary identities.

 

But we’re not done yet.

There are more fun, interesting, and useful identities further down the list.

I will cover the remaining checkbox identity terms from the 2024 Gender Census in the remaining articles in this series.

 

So join me next time as we continue Season 3 of LGBT by the Numbers.