I created an audio version of this article for YouTube, which you can watch below.
The 2024 US Presidential election will be held next year, which will likely be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The two candidates went head-to-head in the 2020 presidential election, which Biden won.
Trump was unable to accept that he lost the election and riled up a mob of Trump supporters, which attacked Congress on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump did so to prevent Congress from certifying his electoral defeat in the 2020 presidential election, which was free and fair.
Republicans appear likely to nominate Trump, who is currently under four separate criminal investigations, one of which has proceeded to an indictment.
Trump is the first current or former US president to be indicted for a crime.
Trump is also the only president in American history who has been impeached twice, although he wasn’t convicted in a Senate trail for either impeachment.
Trump is deeply unpopular with the general electorate.
Trump’s main rival for the Republican presidential nomination is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis recently signed a state law that bans abortion after six weeks, before many women even know they’re pregnant.
But the presidential race is just one of many important elections that will be held in 2024.
Republicans are alienating voters with their extreme positions on abortion. Republicans have enacted strict abortion bans in many states.
The New York Times is tracking the status of state abortion bans.
As you can see, Florida’s recently signed abortion ban hasn’t yet taken effect.
This is the first article in a series that will take an early look at the 2024 US Senate Map, which poses challenges for Democrats, who hope to maintain their Senate majority.
To be clear, I have a rooting interest in these races.
I’m a Democrat, and I find many positions held by the Republican Party to be abhorrent, including their positions on transgender rights and abortion.
I donated a total of $444.80 to Democratic US Senate candidates in 2020 and 2022.
I plan to donate to Democratic Senate candidates in 2024 as well.
Currently, Democrats have a 51 seat majority in the US Senate.
Democrats have held a slim majority in the US Senate since 2021.
In 2024, Democratic incumbents will be defending several seats in potentially difficult races.
Whereas Republican incumbents up for reelection will be running in races they are more likely to easily win.
If Democrats lose one seat, the Senate would have an even 50-50 split.
If that happened, the Vice President would break the tie to determine majority control of the chamber.
In the event of a tie, the party that wins the 2024 Presidential election would determine majority control of the Senate.
Vice President Dick Cheney broke a 50-50 tie to secure a Republican-majority Senate after the 2000 election.
Vice President Kamala Harris broke a 50-50 tie to secure a Democratic-majority Senate after the 2020 election.
If Democrats lose a net of two Senate seats in 2024, Republicans will hold 51 seats and retake the Senate majority, regardless of the winner of the presidential election.
Control of the senate is particularly important due to the Senate’s role in confirming federal judges and Supreme Court Justices, both of which decide important cases.
Those cases can have major implications for abortion rights, as shown by the US Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson, which overturned the constitutional right to abortion the court had originally found in Roe v. Wade.
Supreme Court cases can also have major implications for LGBT rights, as demonstrated by the court’s 2015 ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges, a 5-4 decision that made gay marriage legal nationwide.
Not all important cases make their way to the Supreme Court. Many are decided by federal judges in lower courts.
The partisan majority in the US Senate decides which judges and justices are confirmed.
In 2016, the Senate Republican majority blocked the confirmation Merrick Garland, who President Barack Obama nominated to the Supreme Court.
Under Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Republicans refused to even hold a hearing to consider Garland’s nomination.
Republican stonewalling in the Senate allowed President Donald Trump to fill the vacancy in 2017 with a more conservative justice instead.
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| President Obama nominated DC Circuit Judge Merrick Garland, shown here, to fill a vacancy on the US Supreme Court in 2016. Republicans refused to hold a hearing on Garland, effectively blocking his nomination, which allowed President Trump to fill the vacancy instead. President Biden subsequently nominated Garland to become US Attorney General. The US Senate confirmed Garland as Attorney General in March 2021 by a vote of 70 to 30. |
If President Biden is reelected and Republicans take control of the Senate, the Republican majority could easily block Biden’s nominees for the courts, as they did under Obama.
The Senate’s role in confirming or blocking federal judicial nominees creates high stakes for majority control of the chamber.
In the subsequent articles in this series, I will discuss the dynamics of individual Senate races that will be held next year.
