Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Davids wins reelection in Kansas Third

 

Incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Sharice Davids has won reelection in the Kansas Third Congressional District. 

 


 

Davids defeated Republican challenger Amanda Adkins by 12%.

Davids received 55% of the vote, and Adkins received 43%.

Libertarian Steven Hohe received 2%.

 

Davids won by a larger margin than I predicted.

I predicted Davids would win by 5%.

Instead, she won by 12%.

 

I donated $100 to Davids’ reelection campaign in 2022.

 

Davids won reelection by a larger margin than her previous wins in the district.

In 2018, Davids was first elected to Congress by a margin of 10%.

In 2020, Davids was reelected by 10%.

And this year, she won reelection by 12%.

 

Davids’ victory is all the more impressive considering the Kansas Legislature redrew the Kansas Third to be more conservative, in an explicit effort to defeat Davids. 

 

In September 2020, Kansas Senate President Susan Wagle, a Republican, told a Republican gathering in Wichita that her party needed to win a supermajority in the legislature to create new electoral maps that would benefit Republicans.

“So redistricting, it’s right around the corner,” Wagle said. “And if Governor Kelly can veto a Republican bill that gives us four Republican congressmen, that takes out Sharice Davids up in the 3rd – we can do that. I guarantee you we can draw four Republican congressional maps. But we can’t do it unless we have a two-thirds majority in the Senate and House.”

Davids is the only Democrat who has represented Kansas in Congress since 2011.

 

In January, Republicans in the Kansas Legislature approved a map that would make it harder for Davids to win reelection.

In February, Gov. Laura Kelly (D) vetoed the map, and the legislature overrode Kelly’s veto.

In May, the Kansas Supreme Court upheld the legislature’s Congressional map in a 4-3 decision.

In June, the Kansas Supreme Court released the full opinions from the case. The Supreme Court majority found that neither the Kansas Constitution nor Kansas law prohibits partisan gerrymandering.

So the legislature's map went into effect for the 2022 Congressional elections.

 

But despite Republicans’ best efforts to gerrymander Davids out of office, she won reelection by a larger margin than any of her previous wins.

That’s a victory worth celebrating.  

 

 

 

LaTurner reelected in Kansas Second

This year, all four incumbent representatives from Kansas were reelected to the US House.

Jake LaTurner (R) defeated Patrick Schmidt (D) in the Kansas Second Congressional District by 15%.

LaTurner received 58% of the vote, and Schmidt received 42%.

 

LaTurner’s margin of victory closely matches his previous election to Congress and the district’s recent political history.

LaTurner was first elected to Congress in 2020, when he won by 15%.

The Republican candidate has won each of the four elections in the Kansas Second, from 2014 to 2020, by an average margin of 16%.

 

 

 

Estes reelected in Kansas Fourth

Ron Estes (R) defeated Bob Hernandez (D) in the Kansas Fourth Congressional District by 27%.

Estes received 63% of the vote, and Hernandez received 37%.

 

Estes was first elected to Congress in 2018, when he won by 19%.

In 2020, Estes won reelection by 27%.

 

This year, Estes won by 27%, which closely matches the district’s recent political history.

The Republican candidate won each of the four US House races in the Kansas Fourth from 2014 to 2020, by an average margin of 28%.

 

 

 

Mann reelected in Kansas First

Tracey Mann (R) defeated James Beard (D) in the Kansas First Congressional District by 35%.

Mann received 68% of the vote, and Beard received 32%.

 

I voted for Beard. 

A Democratic friend of mine, who also voted for Beard, referred to him as a "sacrificial lamb," in anticipation of how badly he would lose in the deep-red Kansas First.

 

This year, the boundaries of the Kansas First are slightly different.

The Kansas Legislature added the Democratic city of Lawrence to the deeply-Republican Kansas First Congressional District when it redrew the Kansas Congressional map. 

 

Tracey Mann was first elected to Congress in 2020, when he won by 42%.

This year, Mann won reelection by 35%, which closely matches the recent political history of the district.

The Republican candidate won each of the four US House races in the Kansas First from 2014 to 2020, by an average margin of 39%.

 

 

 

Turnout

Significantly more people voted in the Congressional election in the Kansas Third this year than other Kansas Congressional races.

Almost 63,000 additional votes were cast in the Kansas Third compared to the Kansas First, where the second-highest number of total votes were cast.

This was likely because the race in the Kansas Third was the only race that was believed to be potentially competitive prior to election day.

 

District                      Total votes

Kansas Third             301,294

Kansas First              238,425

Kansas Second         233,358

Kansas Fourth          228,740

 

Fewer people voted in Congressional races in Kansas than voted in the races for Governor or US Senate.

But more people voted in Congressional races in Kansas than in the statewide races for Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, or on the constitutional amendments.

 

 

 

Postscript: While I celebrate David’s reelection, I find it somewhat distasteful that her campaign has already sent emails to her supporters requesting donations for her next election in 2024. 

 


 

 [Edit: 12/18/22 - The numbers in this article have been modified to reference the certified official vote totals rather than the final unofficial vote totals that originally appeared here. 

These edits slightly changed some of the numbers in this article.]



Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Johnson elected State Treasurer

 

Steven Johnson has been elected State Treasurer in Kansas.

Johnson is a member of the Kansas House who runs a farm near Salina. 

 


Johnson (R) defeated incumbent State Treasurer Lynn Rogers (D) by a margin of 13%.

Johnson received 54% of the vote, and Rogers received 41%. Libertarian Steve Roberts received 5%.

Lynn Rogers served as Gov. Laura Kelly’s Lieutenant Governor before Kelly appointed Rogers to serve as State Treasurer after the previous treasurer, Jake LaTurner, was elected to Congress in 2020.

 

Johnson had a much tougher race in the Republican primary, where he narrowly defeated State Senator Caryn Tyson.

Johnson won that election by only 474 votes, or 0.11%.

Johnson received 50.05% of the vote, and Tyson received 49.95%.

 

Johnson won his general election contest by 13%.

By all accounts, that’s a solid win.

But Johnson won by a smaller margin than Republicans in previous State Treasurer races.

A Republican won each of the four previous most-recent State Treasurer elections in Kansas, by an average margin of 24%.

In fact, Johnson won by the smallest margin of any Republican candidate in a State Treasurer race since 2006, the earliest year with a State Treasurer election for which data is publicly available on the Kansas Secretary of State’s website.

 

Johnson won by a smaller margin than I predicted.

I predicted Johnson would win by 30%.

I voted for Lynn Rogers in the general election.

 

Here is one of Johnson’s campaign ads, which uses a fiery explosion and a ninja to humorously make his experience with the Kansas budget seem interesting. 

 


 

 

 

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Schwab reelected Kansas Secretary of State

  

Incumbent Republican Scott Schwab has been reelected Kansas Secretary of State. 

 


 

Schwab defeated Democratic challenger Jeanna Repass by a margin of 20%.

Schwab received 58% of the vote, and Repass received 39%.

Libertarian Cullene Lang received 3% of the vote.

 

Schwab won by a smaller margin than I predicted.

I predicted Schwab would win by 35%.

Instead, he won by 20%. 

 

I voted for Repass, although there were few meaningful differences between the two main candidates. I believe either Schwab or Repass would have done a decent job if elected. 

 

Schwab’s margin of victory, 20%, exactly matches the average margin of victory for Republican candidates in the four previous most-recent Kansas Secretary of State elections.

 

Schwab won reelection by a greater margin than his initial 2018 election as Secretary of State, when he defeated Democrat Brian McClendon by a margin of 9%.

 

Moran reelected to the US Senate

 

Incumbent Republican Jerry Moran has been reelected to represent Kansas in the US Senate. 

 


 

Moran beat Democratic challenger Mark Holland by a margin of 23%.

Holland previously served as the mayor of Kansas City, Kansas.

Moran received 60% of the vote, and Holland received 37%.

Libertarian David Graham received 3% of the vote.

 

Moran received the second highest number of votes of any statewide candidate in Kansas this year. Only incumbent Republican Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt received more votes than Moran.

Holland received the second-fewest votes of any statewide major-party candidate. The only major-party statewide candidate who received fewer votes was Democratic Insurance Commissioner candidate Kiel Corkran.

These results indicate moderate Republican voters, the king-makers in Kansas politics, continue to view Moran quite positively.

The US Senate race received the second greatest number of total votes in the statewide races on the ballot. The US Senate race was second only to the Governor’s race in terms of the number of votes cast.

 

I predicted Moran would win reelection by a margin of 20%.

Considering Moran won by 23%, I’d say my prediction was fairly close.

I voted for Holland in the US Senate election.

 

Moran’s victory closely aligns with the average outcome of US Senate races in Kansas.

A Republican won the five previous most-recent US Senate races in Kansas, by an average margin of 24%.

 

Moran’s margin is less than his previous elections to the US Senate.

In 2010, Moran won the general election by a margin of 44%.

In 2016, Moran won re-election by a margin of 30%.

 

But Moran won re-election this year by considerably more than Roger Marshall and Pat Roberts, the two other US Senators recently elected to represent Kansas.

In 2020, Marshall (R) won the US Senate race against Barbara Bollier (D) by a margin of 11%.

In 2014, Roberts (R) won re-election against independent candidate Greg Orman by 11%.