Earlier
today, I published my predictions for the 2024 US Senate elections.
I believe
the closest race will be in Nebraska, where Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is running for
reelection against independent challenger Dan Osborn.
In this
article, we’ll take a close look at the Nebraska Senate Race, and Deb Fischer’s
voting record in the US Senate.
Although, I should disclose I am not an objective observer in this race. I have donated to support Osborn's campaign.
I predict
Deb Fischer will win the Nebraska Senate race by 0%.
Therefore, I
predict Fischer will win the election, and I predict the margin, rounded to the nearest
percent, will be 0.
For this projection,
it’s possible I predict the margin correctly, and the winner incorrectly.
Deb Fischer
leads 538’s polling average in the Nebraska
Senate race by 2.4%.
Deb Fischer (R)
was first elected to the senate in 2012.
Fischer was reelected in 2018 by 19%.
Trump won
Nebraska in 2020 by 19%.
This year,
Dan Osborn, an independent candidate, is challenging Fischer is the Nebraska
Senate race.
Osborn is a labor
leader and veteran
of the US Navy.
This year, Nebraska
voters will vote on two competing abortion
amendments, one that would protect abortion rights, and one that would
limit abortion rights.
So voters in
Nebraska will likely pay particularly close attention to their ballots
this year.
Reproductive Rights
Now, let’s
examine how Deb Fischer has voted on key issues in the senate.
Fischer voted
against the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have overturned
state abortion bans by establishing a right to abortion under federal law.
The bill
failed to receive the 60 votes it needed to clear a Senate filibuster.
Deb Fischer supported
the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
“I have
always supported pro-life policies that show compassion for women and their
unborn children,” Fischer said. “Both conservative and liberal legal scholars
have long questioned the legal reasoning in Roe v. Wade.”
“The
justices made the right decision in Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Center by
affirming that there is no constitutional right to abortion,” Fischer
continued. “Today’s ruling returns policy making decisions on this issue to
state and federal lawmakers. It’s going to take good faith and empathy to
address it.”
On his campaign website, Dan Osborn states
he wants to “keep government out of our private lives,” and says he does not
support, “extreme national measures to ban abortion.”
Fischer voted
against the “Right to IVF Act,” which would have created a federal right to
access fertility treatments and overturned state laws that interfere with the
provision of fertility treatments.
The Right to IVF Act failed to receive the 60 votes it needed to clear a Senate filibuster.
I created a table that shows how incumbent senators, who are running for reelection in close races this year, voted on key issues in the senate.
The senators who voted to convict Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, are shown in the final row to have voted "Guilty."
The senators who voted to acquit Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, are shown in the final row to have voted, "Not Guilty."
Gay Marriage
Congress
passed, and President Biden signed, the Respect for Marriage Act in 2022.
Currently,
the right to same sex marriage is protected nationwide under the Supreme Court’s
ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges.
Liberals
feared the US Supreme Court might overturn its decisions protecting gay
marriage after the court overturned Roe v. Wade.
The Respect
for Marriage Act was passed due to these concerns.
The Respect
for Marriage Act requires states to recognize same-sex marriages conducted in
other states, and requires the federal government to recognize the legitimacy
of same-sex marriages conducted by states that allow them.
While the Respect
for Marriage Act was passed into law, the votes on the bill showed which members
of Congress were still opposed to same-sex marriage in 2022.
One of those
members of Congress was Deb Fischer, who voted
against the Respect for Marriage Act in the senate.
Economic Policy
Fischer voted
against the American Rescue Plan, which extended unemployment benefits,
provided emergency rental assistance, expanded food stamp benefits, expanded
the child tax credit, and provided funding to cities and states to replace tax
revenue lost due to the pandemic.
The law also
provided $1,400 checks to Americans making $75,000 or less per year.
Fischer voted
for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which provided funding for roads,
bridges, public transit, broadband internet, and other infrastructure projects.
Fischer voted
against the Inflation Reduction Act, which allows Medicare to negotiate
prices for some drugs and authorizes tax credits for renewable energy.
Congress
passed and President Biden signed each of the three laws mentioned above.
Donald Trump
Deb Fischer voted
to acquit Donald Trump during his Senate Impeachment Trial for inciting an
insurrection against Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.
Fischer endorsed
Trump for president in January, after Trump won the New Hampshire Republican
Primary.
Fischer announced
her endorsement on Twitter.
“It’s time
for Republicans to unite around President Donald Trump and make Joe Biden a
one-term president,” Fischer said. “These last three years have yielded a
crippling border crisis, an inflationary economy that prices the American Dream
out of reach for families, and a world in constant turmoil with our enemies on
the march.”
“I endorse
Donald Trump for President so we can secure our border, get our economy moving
again, and keep America safe,” Fischer added.
I believe
the US Senate race in Nebraska will be close, but ultimately, I predict Fischer
will win reelection in the Republican state.
