With election day less than two weeks away, let’s take a look at some of the closest races across the country.
All of the chances for candidates cited in this article come from FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe Model, which uses polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, and expert ratings to predict the chances of candidates in races across the country.
US Senate
Democrats have a 54% chance of retaining control of the US Senate. FiveThirtyEight says the race for Senate control is a dead heat.
Control of the US Senate is likely to come down to the three closest Senate races.
Whichever party wins two out of the three races in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania will likely win a majority in the Senate.
Republican Adam Laxalt has the narrowest of leads in Nevada, with a 51% of beating incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto.
In Georgia, incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock has a 51% chance of beating Republican challenger Herschel Walker.
FiveThirtyEight calls both of these races dead heats, and both are essentially coin flips.
In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman is slightly favored, with a 60% chance of beating Republican Mehmet Oz.
That race is for an open Senate seat, because incumbent Republican Pat Toomey chose not to run for reelection.
Gubernatorial races
The race for Oregon Governor couldn’t be closer, with both Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan with a 50% chance of winning the election.
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is term limited and cannot seek reelection.
The New York Times wrote a good article about how donations from a billionaire donor are leading to an unexpectedly competitive race for the governorship in Oregon.
In Nevada, Republican Joe Lombardo has a 52 percent chance of defeating incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak.
In Wisconsin, incumbent Democrat Tony Evers has a 55 percent chance of defeating Republican challenger Tim Michels.
FiveThirtyEight considers the Gubernatorial races in Oregon, Nevada, and Wisconsin to all be dead heats.
Kansas races
Near the top of the ballot, there are three important competitive races in Kansas this year.
Incumbent Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is slightly favored to win reelection against Republican challenger Derek Schmidt. Kelly has a 62% chance of winning the race.
Derek Schmidt currently serves as Kansas Attorney General.
Nationally, the race for the US House is not competitive.
Republicans are favored to win control of the chamber. FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans an 81% chance to do so.
There is only one competitive US House race in Kansas, the Kansas Third District.
Incumbent Democrat Sharice Davids is slightly favored, with a 56% chance of winning reelection against Republican challenger Amanda Adkins.
The race for Kansas Attorney General is also competitive.
In the Kansas AG race, conservative Republican firebrand Kris Kobach is running against Democrat Chris Mann, a former police officer and prosecutor.
Incumbent Kansas AG Derek Schmidt is running against Kelly in the Gubernatorial race.
Kobach lost the 2018 Kansas Gubernatorial election to Kelly, and lost the 2020 Kansas Republican US Senate primary to Roger Marshall, who went on to win the general election.
FiveThirtyEight doesn’t forecast state Attorney General races, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball does.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers the race for Kansas AG to be competitive.
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