Kansas and Nebraska Senate Polling

Americans are deeply upset with Trump and Republicans in Congress, especially over their mismanagement of the economy.

Recently, there has been substantial interest in Senate races in deep red states, as analysts wonder if Democrats or Independent candidates have a chance to win Senate races that would normally be out of reach.

On social media, I have shared tables of polling averages for various competitive Senate Races.

I have used polling averages from Real Clear Politics, but the website hasn’t created polling averages for Senate Races in Kansas or Nebraska.

So, I decided to create polling averages for these elections, myself.

Polling averages are more valuable than individual polls, because an individual poll can be an outlier, whereas a polling average is more likely to give you an accurate view of where polling shows a race to be.

The New York Times collects polls for various races, but it does not create averages from them.

The polls in this article have been collected by the New York Times, and I have crunched the numbers to create polling averages for Senate Races in Kansas and Nebraska.

Kansas

In Kansas, Methodist Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) is running against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R).

I discussed Hamilton, and his strong platform, in an article on the Kansas Democratic Senate Primary, which he won. 

I discussed Marshall, a conservative Republican who strongly supports President Trump, in an article that examined competitive Senate Races. 

The New York Times has collected four polls for the Kansas Senate Race, which were conducted in August or September. 

All four polls were conducted after the Kansas Primary, which was held on Aug. 4.

Hamilton leads in two of these polls, and Marshall leads in the other two.

Marshall leads the polling average by less than 1%.

Specifically, he leads by 0.75%.

Rounded to the nearest percent, Marshall leads by 1%.

The polling shows a highly competitive Senate Race in Kansas.

Historically, Kansas has been a deeply Republican state in federal elections.

It has been 62 years since Kansas voted for a Democrat for President, and 94 years since Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson (D) against Barry Goldwater (R).

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, when the state reelected George McGill.

Since 2004, the Republican candidate has won every Senate election in Kansas by more than 10%.

Recent Presidential elections in Kansas have not been close.

In 2024, Trump won Kansas by 16%.

In 2020, Trump won Kansas by 15%.

In 2016, Trump won Kansas by 21%.

In the most recent poll, conducted by Emerson College, 8% of likely voters were undecided.

Undecided voters will likely determine the outcome of the Kansas Senate Race.

If they break in favor of Marshall, as you would expect based on how Kansas has historically voted in Senate elections, Marshall could win.

If they break for Hamilton, Hamilton could win.

The national political environment for Republicans is bleak.  

Trump's War against Iran rages on, which has caused gas prices to rise.

In Kansas, Unleaded Gasoline is over $4 a gallon, and Diesel is over $6 a gallon.

Nevertheless, Kansas is a deep red state.

I predict Marshall will win by about 7%.

But a lot can change between now and election day.

I still consider the Kansas Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

This prediction will be upsetting to Democrats who want to win this race.

But it’s better outcome for Democrats than I predicted last month, when I believed Marshall would win by 9%.

We have a real chance to defeat Roger Marshall, and win a Senate Race in Kansas, and we need to take it. 

You can support Adam Hamilton through the Democratic Victory Fund, which raises money for Democrats running in important races, nationwide. 

Alternatively, you can support Hamilton through Sunflower Democrats, which raises money for Kansas Democrats running in important races. 

Nebraska

In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn is running against incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

The New York Times has collected three polls for the Nebraska Senate Race, which were conducted in August and September.

In the polling average, the race is exactly tied, with each candidate receiving 47%.

Senate elections in Nebraska generally aren’t competitive, but Osborn was able to prove himself a formidable challenger in a previous Nebraska Senate election.

In 2024, Dan Osborn ran as an independent against incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who was running for reelection.

Fischer won by only 6.7%. 

In 2024, Pete Ricketts was also on the ballot in a special election for Nebraska’s other Senate Seat.

Ricketts won the special election to complete the term of Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, who resigned to become the president of the University of Florida.

In that election, Ricketts (R) ran against University Professor Preston Love Jr. (D).

Ricketts won by 25%.

Trump easily won each of the last three presidential elections in Nebraska.

In 2024, Trump won Nebraska by 20%.

In 2020, Trump won Nebraska by 19%.

In 2016, Trump won Nebraska by 25%.

It has been 20 years since Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate, and 62 years since Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President.

The last time Nebraska elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 2006, when the state reelected Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

The last time Nebraska voted for a Democrat for President was in 1964, when the state voted for Lyndon Johnson.

Earlier this month, the Survey USA poll indicated 7% of likely voters were undecided.

These undecided voters will likely determine the outcome of the Nebraska Senate Race.

The national environment for Republicans is devastating this year, and Trump is relentlessly directing the nation’s political attention to his obsessive focus on his personal vanity projects, like his determination to add his name to the Kennedy Center.

I predict Ricketts will win the Nebraska Senate Race by about 6%.

Therefore, I still consider the Nebraska Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

Nevertheless, I believe Osborn’s chances of winning are improving.

Last month, I predicted Ricketts would win by about 7%. 

I have already met my fundraising goal for Dan Osborn. 

But you can support four other Senate candidates through the Democratic Victory Fund.

Those candidates are Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas, and Troy Jackson in Maine. 

You can also support my coverage of the 2026 elections on Patreon.