[Author’s Note: This post is part of the 7 part series Conspiracy Check. The series factchecks
the claims of Liberal commentator Thom Hartmann concerning allegations of fraud
and treason during 5 presidential elections.]
Hartmann’s
next conspiracy concerned the 2004 presidential election. The election came
down to Ohio. The private company SMARTech had been given the contract by
Ohio’s Secretary of State to back up the vote calculations on election night.
SMARTech had significant ties to the national Republican Party. Ohio’s servers
crashed and the vote totals were rerouted through SMARTech. Hartmann then
strongly implied that SMARTech stole Ohio, and thus the election, for Bush.
“The vote totals that poured into the system
from SMARTech’s computers in Chattanooga flipped the exit polls on their head.
The lead that John Kerry had in the exit polls had magically reversed by more
than 6 percent, something unheard of in any other nation in the developed
world.”
Hartmann’s
main source was Craig Unger’s book, Boss
Rove. I admit that I have not read Unger’s book. However, Unger did discuss
the book on Democracy
Now. Unger was asked if he thought Ohio was stolen in 2004.
“CRAIG UNGER: Well, there was no question there
was massive fraud. If you want to actually count the votes, unfortunately it’s
impossible because so much evidence was destroyed.”
Unger
confirmed almost all of Hartmann’s claims in the interview, everything except
his conclusion the election was most likely stolen. However, neither Hartmann
nor Unger addressed concerns with the exit polls in the 2004 election.
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International
were the two companies responsible for creating the National Election Poll, the
organization that conducted the 2004 presidential exit polls. The two
organizations released a report
to explain the problems with the exit polls in 2004. The polls were different
from the results in many states, not just Ohio.
”There were
26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the
vote for John Kerry by more than one standard error, and there were four states
in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush by more
than one standard error.”
The report
concluded that the error in the exit polls was the result of Kerry voters being
more likely to talk to exit poll researchers than Bush voters.
“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and
the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a
higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters
participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There have been partisan overstatements in
previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally
overstating the Republican. While the
size of the average exit poll error has varied, it was higher in 2004 than in
previous years for which we have data.”
Mark Blumenthal wrote extensively on the controversy at Mystery
Pollster.
Summarize:
[If you want to explain the exit poll discrepancy] Absent further data from
NEP, you can choose to believe that an existing problem with exit polls got
worse this year in the face of declining response rates and rising distrust of
big media, that a slightly higher number of Bush voters than Kerry voters
declined to be interviewed. Or, you can believe that a massive secret
conspiracy somehow shifted roughly 2% of
the vote from Kerry to Bush in every battleground state, a conspiracy that
fooled everyone but the exit pollsters – and then only for a few hours – after which
they deliberately suppressed evidence of the fraud and damaged their own
reputations by blaming the discrepancies on the weakness in their data.
Please.
Don’t get me
wrong. I am disturbed by the notion of electronic voting machines with no paper
record, and I totally support the efforts of those pushing for a genuine audit
trail. If Ralph Nader or the Libertarians want to pay for recounts to press this
point, I am all for it. I know vote fraud can happen, and I support efforts to
pursue real evidence of such misdeeds. I am also frustrated by the lack of
transparency and disclosure from NEP, even on such simple issues as reporting
the sampling error for each state exit poll. Given the growing controversy, I
hope they release as much data as possible on their investigation as soon as
possible. The discrepancy also has very important implications for survey
research generally, and pollsters everywhere will benefit by learning more
about it.
While there
is no doubt that there was Florida-like problems in Ohio in 2004, the evidence
that the election was stolen is inadequate. Hartmann did not explain that the
exit polls disproportionally favored Kerry compared to the final vote tallies in
26 states, not just in Ohio. This missing fact throws his near certainty that
the election was stolen into a much different light.
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