Predictions are a fool’s game, but let’s play anyway.
Tomorrow is the 2022 general election. I have already voted.
I published the candidates I voted for in an earlier blog post.
After polls close tomorrow evening, we’ll begin getting results from races across the country.
We might not know who won several key races on election night.
Regardless, it will be fun to watch the results come in.
I will be covering the results on twitter. You can follow me @JasonBeets4.
Here are my
predictions for several Kansas races.
Kansas Governor
I predict incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will win the Kansas governor’s race by a 2% margin.
Recent polling has been good for Kelly, and many Kansans believe Kelly has been a good steward of the Kansas economy and the state budget.
She is well positioned to beat Republican challenger Derek Schmidt, who is currently serving at Kansas Attorney General.
But I still think it will be a close race.
FiveThirtyEight also predicts Kelly will win the race by 2%.
Kansas Attorney General
I predict former police officer and prosecutor Chris Mann (D) will win the Kansas Attorney General’s race by a margin of 5%.
Mann is running against Kris Kobach (R), a divisive conservative firebrand who lost the 2018 Kansas Gubernatorial race to Kelly.
Kobach is deeply off putting to Democrats and many moderate Republicans.
A recent Emerson College poll shows Mann up by 1% against Kobach in the AG race, with 11% of voters still undecided.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 27-29.
In the same poll, only 4% of voters were undecided in the Kansas Governor’s race.
I believe a lot of those undecided voters will remember disliking Kobach in 2018 and will vote against him tomorrow, even if they aren’t thrilled by the prospect of voting for a Democrat.
I also believe Mann has the law enforcement record and legal background to be a plausible alternative for moderate Republicans who don’t want Kobach to be the next AG.
Davids favored in Kansas Third
I predict incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Sharice Davids will be reelected in the Kansas Third District by a margin of 5%.
In her last two elections, in 2018 and 2020, Davids won the district by 10%.
But Republicans in the Kansas legislature made the third district more conservative when they redrew the Kansas Congressional map following the 2020 census.
FiveThirtyEight predicts Davids will win by 6%.
Moran likely to win reelection
I predict incumbent Sen. Jerry Moran (R) will win reelection by a margin of 20%.
That outcome would generally be considered a blowout, and it clearly would be, but it would be narrower than the average margin in a Kansas US Senate race.
In the Emerson College poll, Moran leads Democratic challenger Mark Holland by 21%.
I briefly profiled Moran and Holland in twitter threads ahead of the Kansas primary.
A Republican won the five most recent US Senate races in Kansas, by an average margin of 24%.
A 20% margin would also represent a narrower margin for Moran than his previous elections to the US Senate.
In 2010, Moran won the general election by a margin of 44%.
In 2016, Moran won re-election by a margin of 30%.
I believe Moran will win by a significantly smaller margin than his previous races, for two reasons.
First, the Kansas Gubernatorial and Attorney General’s races will drive turnout for Democrats, who are positioned for a relatively good year in state elections.
Second, Moran’s challenger, Mark Holland, has a quality resume for a Democratic US Senate candidate.
Holland previously served as the mayor of Kansas City, Kansas, and is well known in a heavily populated part of the state.
I believe Moran will preform far better than Marshall and Roberts did in their most recent Kansas US Senate races.
This is largely because moderate Republicans view Moran far more favorably than they viewed Marshall and Roberts.
In 2020, Marshall (R) won the US Senate race against Barbara Bollier by a margin of 11%.
In 2014, Roberts (R) won the US Senate race against independent candidate Greg Orman by 11%.
These are still wide margins of victory, but they are relatively small compared to Moran’s.
Kansas Treasurer
I predict Steven Johnson will win the Kansas Treasurer’s race by a margin of 30%.
This would be a larger than average margin of victory for a Republican.
A Republican won the four most recent State Treasurer races, by an average margin of 24%.
It would also be a larger margin of victory than three out of the four most recent State Treasurer races.
Johnson is the kind of Republican that moderate Republican voters want to serve in administrative roles like State Treasurer.
Nonetheless, few voters are paying attention to the Treasurer’s race.
I believe a consequential number of moderate Republican voters will vote for Kelly in the governor’s race, against Kobach in the Attorney General’s race, and then vote straight Republican for most or all of the rest of the ballot.
That will be good for down-ballot Republicans like Johnson.
The Democrats have a good candidate in incumbent State Treasurer Lynn Rogers, but Kansas voters haven’t voted for a Democratic Treasurer in a long time.
Rogers served as Gov. Kelly’s Lieutenant Governor before Kelly appointed Rogers to serve as State Treasurer after the previous treasurer, Jake LaTurner, was elected to Congress in 2020.
Both Johnson and Rogers have served in the Kansas Legislature.
I profiled the Kansas Treasurer's race on twitter.
Kansas Secretary of State
I predict Scott Schwab (R) will be reelected as Kansas Secretary of State by a margin of 35%.
That would be a larger margin of victory than any of the last four Secretary of State races.
A Republican won the four most recent Secretary of State races, by an average margin of 20%.
Democrats and moderate Republicans both believe Schwab has done a relatively good job as Secretary of State, especially compared to his predecessor, Kris Kobach.
Schwab’s general election opponent, Jeanna Repass, has been active in business and her community, but she is a political newcomer.
These factors will likely result in an especially good night for Schwab.
Insurance Commissioner
I predict Kansas Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt (R) will be reelected by a margin of 40%.
That would be a larger margin of victory than any of the three most recent contested Insurance Commissioner races.
The Republican candidate won the three most recent contested Commissioner of Insurance races, by an average margin of 26%.
Vicki Schmidt is an eminently qualified moderate Republican who is well liked even by people and organizations that favor Democrats.
Vicki Schmidt is a supporter of Medicaid expansion, a policy that is supported by a large majority of Kansas voters, but opposed by the Kansas Republican Party.
Vicki Schmidt is one of only two Republicans that I voted for this year.
The other, John Ford, is running for the Riley County Commission unopposed.
Vicki Schmidt’s general election opponent, Kiel Corkran (D), hasn’t previously held elected office.
Corkran seems like a nice guy, but he has absolutely no relevant experience for the position he is running for.
Corkran’s campaign website, which was publicly available during the primary, has been listed as private for the past month.
It’s still not up the day before the general election.
I also haven’t seen any yard signs for Corkran, even though I have seen yard signs for other down-ballot Democrats.
The only reason I don’t give Vicki Schmidt a higher predicted margin is because I believe there is a bare minimum floor for a down-ballot Democrat in a relatively good year for Democrats statewide.
I believe Corkran will receive 30% of the vote simply due to Democrats who turn out to vote in the Gubernatorial and Attorney General races who vote a straight Democratic ticket, without regard to the specific candidates running in the down-ballot races.
Conclusion
I voted for Laura Kelly for Governor and Chris Mann for Attorney General.
I donated to Kelly, Mann, and Sharice Davids, even though I don’t live in the third congressional district.
I hope I’m correct in my prediction that they will each win their respective races.
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