Wednesday, November 2, 2022

Partisan advantage in Kansas races

 

Most people know that, by and large, Kansas is a Republican state.

However, those who follow Kansas politics closely will know Democrats often win Gubernatorial races, even though the state never votes for Democrats in presidential elections.

So how does the partisan advantage differ in statewide races in Kansas depending on the office?

That’s what we will examine today. 

 

 

 

In this article, I compare the partisan advantage in Kansas for six different types of statewide races, based on data from the Kansas Secretary of State for elections from 2006 to 2020.

Let’s begin with the races that have the largest partisan advantage for Republicans, before making our way to those that are more competitive.

 

The Republican candidate won the three most recent contested Commissioner of Insurance races, by an average margin of 26%.

 

A Republican won the four most recent State Treasurer races, by an average margin of 24%.

 

A Republican won the five most recent US Senate races, by an average margin of 24%.

In his two US Senate general elections, Jerry Moran (R) won by an average of 37%.

 

 

A Republican won the four most recent Secretary of State races, by an average margin of 20%.

 

Kansas voted for the Republican candidate in the four most recent presidential races, by an average margin of 18%.

 

Republican candidates won three of the four most recent Kansas Attorney General races. A Democrat won one race. 

Across those four races, the Republican won by an average of 12%.

 

Republicans won two of the four most recent Kansas Gubernatorial elections. Democrats won the other two. 

Across those four races, the Republican won by an average of 3%.

 

Over the past 16 years, the Kansas statewide races that most favored Republican candidates were for Commissioner of Insurance, State Treasurer, US Senate, Secretary of State, and President.

The Kansas statewide races that were most competitive for Democrats were races for Governor and Attorney General.

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