My 2024 Political Donations

  

As we continue to explore the results of last year’s election, it’s finally time to examine my personal political donations, with the assistance of several colorful tables and graphs.

In 2024, I donated $455 to political candidates campaigning for Congress and the Kansas Legislature.

 

I previously discussed my political donations for elections in 2020, 2022, and 2023.

 

This article is part of an ongoing series that explores the results of last year’s election.

I have covered the results of elections for the US Senate, US House, and the Kansas Legislature.

I also graded the accuracy of predictions for the US Senate elections.

 

Last year, I encouraged readers to donate to Democrats running for the Kansas Legislature.

My most recent article examined the performance of the candidates who received those donations.

This article, by contrast, explores the performance of candidates I personally donated to last year.

 

 

 

Overview

 

I financially supported 16 candidates in 2024.

Only two of those candidates, Dan Osman and Derek Tran, won their elections.

The other 14 candidates lost.

 

This table lists my donations from largest to smallest, with the candidates I gave the most to, listed first.

I will discuss each of these elections later in this article.

For the most part, discussions of these elections, in this article, will generally follow the order of the candidates as they appear in this table.

 

The table is color-coded.

In the “Office Sought” column, congressional candidates are highlighted in purple. Candidates for the Kansas Senate are highlighted in green.

In the “2024 Margin” column, races won by Democrats are highlighted in blue, and races won by Republicans are highlighted in pink.

Mathew Reinhold lost a Democratic primary, so his “2024 Margin” displays the margin of his loss in the primary.

I created the tables and graphs in this article in Excel.  

 

 

 

This table displays my donations based on the margin of victory, with the closest races listed first.

The color-coding conventions are the same as they were in the first table.

 

 

 

By and large, my donations were wisely spent on candidates whose races were decided by narrow margins.

 

22% of my donations went to races where the margin was decided by less than 3%. 

44% of my donations went to races where the margin was decided by less than 5%.

74% of my donations went to races where the margin was decided by less than 7%.

 

 

 

 

Kansas Senate

 

I donated $90 to candidates running for the Kansas Senate.

That accounts for 20% of my 2024 donations.

 

I donated to two Democrats running for the Kansas Senate, Andrew Mall and Dena Sattler, both of whom lost their elections.

 

 

I donated $50 to Andrew Mall.

 

I donated more to Andrew Mall in 2024 than any other candidate.

Andrew Mall (D) lost a Kansas Senate race in Dist. 10, in Johnson County, to incumbent Mike Thompson (R) by 4.8%, or 2,176 votes.

Thompson received 52%, and Mall received 48%.

 

Elections for the Kansas Senate are held every four years.

2024 was the first election for the Kansas Senate after redistricting, so exercise caution when comparing the 2024 and 2020 results. 

 

In 2020, Mike Thompson (R) defeated Lindsey Constance (D), in Dist. 10, by 3.7%, or 1,604 votes.

Thompson received 51.9%, and Constance received 48.1%.

 

 

 

I donated $40 to Dena Sattler.

 

Dena Sattler (D) lost a Kansas Senate race in Dist. 3 to incumbent Rick Kloos (R) by 14.8%, or 5,657 votes.

Dist. 3 is located in Osage, Douglas, Franklin, and Shawnee counties.

Kloos received 57%, and Sattler received 43%.

 

Sattler’s race didn’t end up being competitive. But prior to the election, the results from the most recent Kansas Senate elections indicated it might be.

 

In 2020, Rick Kloos (R) defeated incumbent Anthony Hensley (D), in Dist. 19, by 2.1%, or 658 votes.

That election was the closest Kansas Senate Race in 2020.

Kloos was redistricted into Dist. 3 for the 2024 election.

 

 

This table, which first appeared in, “Republicans gain seats in the Kansas Legislature,” shows the results of the closest Kansas Senate elections in 2024.

 

 

 

US Senate 

I donated $45 to Dan Osborn.

Dan Osborn ran as an independent in a two-way US Senate race in Nebraska against incumbent Republican Deb Fischer.

Nebraska Democrats chose not to nominate a candidate for the race.

Osborn lost the Nebraska US Senate race to Fischer (R) by 6.7%, or 62,631 votes.

Fischer received 53.3%, and Osborn received 46.7%.

 

US Senators serve 6-year terms, so Senate seats are up for election every six years.

Even though Osborn lost, he managed to narrow Fischer’s margin of victory considerably, compared to her election in 2018.

In 2018, Deb Fischer was reelected to the US Senate by 19%.

Fischer (R) received 58%, Jane Raybould (D) received 39%, and Jim Schultz (L) received 4%.

 

Nebraska was the only US Senate race, decided by less than 10%, where the margin swung away from Republicans in 2024, compared to 2018.

The following table first appeared in, “Republicans win Senate Control.”

 

 

 

 

Dan Osborn is running in Nebraska for the US Senate, again, in 2026.

 

 

 

Dan Osborn was the only US Senate Candidate I supported financially last year.

Donations to US Senate races account for 10% of my 2024 political donations.

 

 

Osborn was the only independent candidate I supported financially last year.

The other 15 candidates I supported financially are Democrats.

Democrats received 90% of my political donations last year, and one independent candidate, Osborn, received the remaining 10%.

 

 

Last year, I donated $45 to support Osborn, an independent, and $410 to support Democratic candidates.

 

 

 

 

Kansas House

 

I financially supported 10 Democrats running for the Kansas House.

Only one of those candidates, Dan Osman, won their election.

 

I donated $290 to candidates running for the Kansas House.

That accounts for 64%, or almost two-thirds, of my 2024 political donations.

 

Last year, I donated to seven of the eleven Kansas House races where the margin was decided by less than 6%.

 

 

 

I donated $30 to Dan Osman.

 

Incumbent Dan Osman (D) won a Kansas House Race, in Dist. 48, in Johnson County, against Randy Ross (R) by 5.8%, or 723 votes. 

Osman received 53%, and Ross received 47%.

 

The election in Dist. 48 was the only Kansas House race decided by less than 8% where the margin shifted toward Democrats, compared to 2022.

All of the other 12 Kansas House races decided by less than 8% had their margin shift in favor of Republicans, compared to 2022.

You can see this in the table below, which first appeared in “Republicans gain seats in the Kansas Legislature.”

 

 

I donated $30 to Ace Allen.

Ace Allen (D) lost a Kansas House race, in Dist. 28, in Johnson County, to incumbent Carl Turner (R) by 1.2%, or 155 votes.

Turner received 50.6%, and Allen received 49.4%. 

 

Elections are held for the Kansas House every two years.

The Kansas House race in Dist. 28 was a rematch between the same candidates who ran against each other two years earlier.

 

In 2022, incumbent Carl Turner (R) defeated Ace Allen (D) by 0.6%, or 60 votes.

Turner received 50.3%, and Allen received 49.7%.

The Kansas House race in Dist. 28, in Johnson County, was the closest Kansas House race, in the entire state, in both 2022 and 2024.

 

 

 

I donated 30 to Veronica Gillette.

Veronica Gillette (D) lost a Kansas House race, in Dist. 88, in Sedgwick and Butler counties, to incumbent Sandy Pickert (R) by 2.1%, or 187 votes.

Pickert received 51.1%, and Gillette received 48.9%.

 

 

 

I donated $30 to Dennis Miller.

Incumbent Dennis Miller (D) lost a Kansas House race, in Dist. 14, in Johnson County, to Charlotte Esau (R) by 2.7% or 404 votes.

Esau received 51.4%, and Miller received 48.6%.

 

The 2024 election in Kansas House Dist. 17, in Johnson County, was a rematch between the same candidates who ran against each other two years earlier.

In 2022, Dennis Miller (D) defeated incumbent Charlotte Esau (R) by 221 votes, or 2.0%.

Miller (D) received 51.0%, and Esau (R) received 49.0%.

 

 

 

I donated $30 to Vanessa Vaughn West.

Vanessa Vaughn West (D) lost a Kansas House race, in Dist. 39, in Johnson County, to Angela Stiens (R) by 3.2%, or 419 votes.

Stiens received 51.6%, and West received 48.4%.

 

 

 

I donated $30 to Aimee Bateman.

Aimee Bateman (D) lost a Kansas House race, in Dist. 41, in Leavenworth County, to incumbent Pat Proctor (R) by 5.1%, or 324 votes.

Proctor received 52.6%, and Bateman received 47.4%.

 

 

 

I donated $30 to Betsey Lasister.

Betsey Lasister (D) lost a Kansas House race, in Dist. 30, in Johnson County, to incumbent Laura Williams (R) by 5.2%, or 607 votes.

Williams received 52.6%, and Lasister received 47.4%.

 

 

 

 

I financially supported two Democrats running in the Kansas House race in Dist. 33, in Wyandotte County.

 

Mathew Reinhold was the first Democrat to file to run in the election.

After he filed, I followed Reinhold on Twitter, where I enjoyed reading his political commentary.

I donated $20 to Mathew Reinhold, before another Democratic candidate, Eli Woody, entered the race.

Woody filed to run in the election right before the filing deadline in early June.

 

In the Aug. 6 primary, Woody received 58%, and Reinhold received 42%.

Woody won the Democratic primary by 16%, or 160 votes.

 

 

After the primary, I donated $30 to Eli Woody.

 

Woody lost the general election to incumbent Republican Mike Thompson, in Dist. 33, in Wyandotte County, by 13%, or 1,235 votes.  

Thompson (R) received 57%, and Woody (D) received 43%.

 

 

The 2024 election for Kansas House Dist. 33, in Wyandotte County, wasn’t competitive, but it had been two years earlier.

In 2022, Mike Thompson (R) won Dist. 33, in Wyandotte County, by 367 votes, or 5.6%.

Thompson (R) received 51%, Bill Hutton (D) received 46%, and Stephanie Barton (L) received 3%.

 

 

 

 

 

I donated $30 to Bill Hammond.

Bill Hammond (D) lost a Kansas House race, in Dist. 117, in Johnson and Douglas counties, to incumbent Adam Turk (R) by 15%, or 2,232 votes.

Turk received 57.5%, and Hammond received 42.5%.

 

The Kansas House race in Dist. 117, in Johnson and Douglas counties, wasn’t competitive in 2024, but it had been two years earlier.

In 2022, Adam Turk (R) won the Kansas House race in Dist. 117 by 3.9%, or 435 votes.

Turk (R) received 52%, and Courtney Tripp (D) received 48%.

 

 

 

 

US House

 

I financially supported three Democrats running for the US House.

Only one of those candidates, Derek Tran, won their election.

Nevertheless, all three races were decided by less than 4%.

 

I donated $30 to US House races.

That accounts for 7% of my 2024 political donations.

 

 

I donated $10 to Derek Tran.

 

Derek Tran (D) won a US House race, in California-45, in Orange and Los Angeles counties, against incumbent Michelle Steel (R) by 0.21%, or 653 votes.

Tran received 50.1%, and Steel received 49.9%.

 

Tran's race was one of the closest US House races, nationwide, in 2024, as you can see in the table below, which first appeared in "Republicans retain House control." 

 

 

 

 

I donated $10 to Amish Shah.

Amish Shah (D) lost a US House race, in Arizona-1, in Maricopa County, against incumbent David Schweikert (R) by 3.81%, or 16,572 votes.

Schweikert received 51.9%, and Shah received 48.1%.

 

 

I donated $10 to Lanon Baccam.

Lanon Baccam (D) lost a US House race, in Iowa-3, against incumbent Zach Nunn (R) by 3.83%, or 15,784 votes.

Nunn received 51.9%, and Baccam received 48.1%.

Iowa-3 is roughly located in southwest Iowa.

 

 

 

 

 

Donations by Office Sought

 

I donated $290 to Kansas House races, $90 to Kansas Senate races, $45 to a US Senate race, and $30 to US House races.

 

Almost two-thirds of my donations went to Kansas House races.

64% of my donations went to Kansas House races, 20% went to Kansas Senate races, 10% went to a US Senate race, and 7% went to US House races.

 

 

 

 

Donations by Location

 

I donated $380 to elections in Kansas, all of which went to candidates running for the Kansas Legislature.

I donated $45 to a US Senate race in Nebraska.

I donated $10 to US House races in each of the following states: California, Arizona, and Iowa.

 

84% of my donations went to elections in Kansas, and 16% of my donations went to elections in other states.

10% of my donations went to an election in Nebraska.

2% of my donations went to an election in California.

2% of my donations went to an election in Arizona.

2% of my donations went to an election in Iowa.

 

 

 

 

We can break down my Kansas donations even further.

Many competitive Kansas Legislative races are located in Johnson County.

Last year, 63.6% of Kansas House races decided by less than 6% were located in Johnson County, and 66.7% of Kansas Senate races decided by less than 6% were located entirely or partially in Johnson County.

 

 

Let’s break down my 2024 Kansas donations by county.

For legislative districts that are located in multiple counties, I split my donations to the district evenly between those counties.

 

 

I donated $215 to races in Johnson County, $50 to races in Wyandotte County, $30 to a race in Leavenworth County, and $25 to races in Douglas County.

I donated $15 each to races in Sedgwick and Butler counties.  

I donated $10 each to races in Shawnee, Franklin, and Osage counties.

 

57% of my Kansas donations went to races in Johnson County, 13% went to races in Wyandotte County, and all other counties each received less than 10%.

 

 

 

 

Now, let’s take this county-level data and return to my donations as a whole.

I donated $215 to races in Johnson County, $165 to races elsewhere in Kansas, and $75 to races outside of Kansas.

 

 

47% of my total donations went to races in Johnson County, 36% went to races elsewhere in Kansas, and 16% went to races outside of Kansas.

 

 

 

 

Now let’s take a look at a very silly graph.

This graph shows my total political donations. The Kansas donations are split by county, and the donations outside Kansas are split by state.

 

 

I donated $215 to races in Johnson County, $50 to races in Wyandotte County, $45 to a race in Nebraska, $30 to a race in Leavenworth County, and $25 to races in Douglas County.

I donated $15 each to Sedgwick and Butler counties.

I donated $10 each to Shawnee County, Franklin County, Osage County, California, Arizona, and Iowa.

 

 

47% of my total donations went to Johnson County, 11% went to Wyandotte County, 10% went to Nebraska, 7% went to Leavenworth County, and 5% went to Douglas County.

Sedgwick and Butler counties each received 3%.

Shawnee County, Franklin County, Osage County, California, Arizona, and Iowa each received 2%.

 

 

 

 

Donations by Win-Loss

 

Now, let’s examine the percent of donations that went to candidates who won, and the percent that went to candidates who lost.

 

Only two of the candidates I supported financially won their elections.

I donated $30 to Dan Osman, who won the Kansas House Race, in Dist. 48, in Johnson County.

I donated $10 to Derek Tran, who won the US House race, in California-45, in Orange and Los Angeles counties.

 

I donated $40 to candidates who won their elections.

I donated $415 to candidates who lost their elections.

 

 

Only 9% of my donations went to candidates who won their elections.

91% of my donations went to candidates who lost.

 

 

Next, let’s examine the percent of candidates that I supported financially who won their races.

Two of the candidates who I supported financially won their elections, and 14 lost their elections.

12.5% of the candidates I supported financially won their elections, and 87.5% of the candidates I supported financially lost their elections.

 

 

 

Donations by Month

 

This graph shows when I donated to political candidates throughout the year.

 

 

The exact figures for each month are shown in the table below.

 

On the graph above, you can clearly see when I lost my job.

I lost my job working for a car wash on June 6, and I began working for Door Dash on August 20.

I originally planned for my donations to be fairly evenly distributed over time, but I didn’t make any political contributions in June or July, because I was unemployed, and I didn’t have an income.

 

 

 

 

Conclusion

 

Overall, the 2024 elections were catastrophic for Democrats.

 

Donald Trump was reelected president, Republicans won control of both chambers of Congress, and Republicans increased their supermajorities in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature.

Nevertheless, I spent my political donations wisely on candidates whose races were determined by narrow margins.

With practice donating across several elections, I have gotten better at making sure my contributions go to competitive races where they will be spent well.

 

 

2024 Political Fundraising Report

  

Last year, I raised funds for Democrats running for seats in the Kansas Legislature.

I created and promoted an Act Blue fund called, “Breaking the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature.”

Five people collectively donated $618.33 to the fund.

That money was wisely spent on candidates whose races were decided by narrow margins. 

87% of donations went to candidates whose races were decided by less than 6%.

 

 

 

Money donated to the fund was split evenly between the candidates I chose to include. 

I adjusted the candidates in the fund based on the results of the Kansas Primary election and campaign finance reports. 

 

I raised funds for 16 Democratic candidates last year.

Thirteen ran for seats in the Kansas House, and three ran for seats in the Kansas Senate.

The following table lists these candidates based on the final margin in their races, with the closest elections listed first. 

You can click on the tables in this article to view larger versions of them.  

 

 

Ultimately, Democrats did not break the Republican Supermajority in the Kansas Legislature in 2024.

Instead, Republicans gained three seats in the Kansas House, and two seats in the Kansas Senate.

I covered the results of the 2024 elections for the Kansas Legislature in a previous article.

 

This article is part of an ongoing series that explores the results of the 2024 general election.

Previously, I covered the results of elections for the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. I also evaluated the accuracy of my predictions for the US Senate elections.

 

 

 

Even though Democrats lost seats in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature, money donated to the fund went to candidates whose races were decided by narrow margins.

 

 

28% of donations went to races that were decided by less than 2%.

59% of donations went to races that were decided by less than 5%.

87% of donations went to races that were decided by less than 6%.

 

 

 

Only three candidates supported by the fund ran in races that didn’t end up being competitive.

Eli Woody, Dena Sattler, and Bill Hammond each lost races to Republican candidates by more than 10%.

They were included because the results of previous elections indicated their elections might be competitive in 2024.

 

 

Bill Hammond ran in District 117, in Johnson and Douglas counties, which the Republican candidate won in 2022 by 3.9%.

Eli Woody ran in District 33, in Wyandotte County, which the Republican candidate won in 2022 by 5.6%. 

You can see these results in the table below, which displays the closest Kansas House races, organized by the 2022 margin, with the closest races listed first.  

 

 

Last year was the first election for the Kansas Senate after redistricting, which made it more challenging to predict which Senate races would be competitive.

 

In 2024, Dena Sattler ran against Rick Kloos in the Kansas Senate.

In 2020, Rick Kloos (R) defeated incumbent Democrat Anthony Hensley in Kansas Senate District 19 by 2.1%.

That was the closest election for the Kansas Senate in 2020.

 

For the 2024 election, Kloos was redistricted into Kansas Senate District 3.

In 2024, Kloos won reelection in District 3 by 14.8%.

District 3 is located in Osage, Douglas, Franklin, and Shawnee counties.

 

 

 

We’ve examined whether donations to the fund went to competitive races. But it’s also worth exploring if the fund should have included races that I failed to anticipate would be competitive.

I raised funds for all 11 Kansas House races where the margin was decided by less than 6% in 2024.

That’s a really impressive result.

The most competitive Kansas House races from 2024 are shown in the table below, which is organized by the 2024 margin, with the closest races listed first.

The bottom two races weren't competitive in 2024, but they were in 2022.  

 

 

 

I raised funds for 2 of the 6 Kansas Senate races where the margin was decided by less than 6% in 2024. 

Specifically, I raised funds for Usha Reddi, in Riley County, and Andrew Mall, in Johnson County.  

That’s not as impressive as my record for predicting competitive Kansas House races, but it’s still fairly good, considering my foresight was obscured by the fog of redistricting.

This table shows the results of the most competitive Kansas Senate elections.

 

 

 

 

Because I adjusted the candidates included in the fund over time, different candidates received different amounts from the fund.

This table lists the candidates based on the amount they received from the fund, with the candidates that received the most listed first.

 

 

Personally, I donated $380 to Democratic candidates running for the Kansas Legislature.

I will discuss my personal political donations in a future article.

Including my personal donations, we raised a total of $998.33 for Democratic candidates running for the Kansas Legislature in 2024.

That’s less than $2 short of $1,000.

 

 

 

 

Only two of the 16 candidates that received money from the fund won their races.

Nikki McDonald won in District 49, in Johnson County, by 1.2%.

Dan Osman won in District 48, in Johnson County, by 5.8%.

 

84% of donations to the fund went to candidates who lost.

16% of donations went to candidates who won.

 

 

 

81% of donations to the fund went to candidates running for the Kansas House.

19% of donations went to candidates running for the Kansas Senate.

 

 

 

Four people donated to the fund in August. They donated the following amounts: $458.33, $25, $25, and $100.

One person donated $10 to the fund in October.

 

98% of the funds were donated in August, and 2% were donated in October.

 

 

 

I have already begun raising funds for Democrats running in competitive elections in 2025 and 2026.

You can donate to Democratic candidates running in those races through the Democratic Victory Fund.

I wrote about many of the candidates included in the Democratic Victory Fund in an article I published earlier this year.

 

 

Republicans gain seats in the Kansas Legislature

  

In 2024, Republicans gained seats in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature.

Republicans gained three seats in the Kansas House, and two seats in the Kansas Senate.

 

All seats in the Kansas Legislature were up for reelection in 2024.

Elections for the Kansas House are held every two years, and elections for the Kansas Senate are held every four years.

 

 

Last year, I covered the electoral geography of elections for the Kansas Legislature, and the policies debated and approved by the Legislature.

“Key races to determine balance of power in Topeka” discussed the Republican Supermajority in the Legislature, and explored the battleground Kansas House districts.

“Republicans chip away at abortion rights in Kansas” examined the ways Kansas Republicans have limited abortion rights, even though Kansas voters decisively rejected a constitutional amendment that would have allowed the legislature to eliminate abortion rights in the state.

“Kansas Republicans approve Trans Sports Ban” discussed the transgender sports ban Kansas Republicans approved over the veto of Democratic Governor Laura Kelly.

“Stop the Flat Tax” covered attempts by Kansas Republicans to cut taxes for the rich by creating a flat tax.

 

 

This article is part of an ongoing series that explores the results of the 2024 general election.

Previously, I covered the results of elections for the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. I also evaluated the accuracy of my predictions for the US Senate elections.

 

 

Democrats can use the results of the 2024 elections for the Kansas Legislature to determine which districts are most likely to be competitive in future elections.

Many of the most competitive districts, in both chambers, are located in Johnson County.

Johnson County is located in northeast Kansas, along the Kansas-Missouri border.

 

 

About 632,000 people lived in Johnson County, and about 2.97 Million people lived in Kansas, in 2024, according to the US Census.

Therefore, Johnson County was home to 21% of the Kansas population in 2024.

That means just over 1 in 5 Kansans live in Johnson County, even though there are 105 counties in the state.

Johnson County is the largest county in Kansas, followed by Sedgwick, Shawnee, Wyandotte, and Douglas counties.

 

Kansas House

 

There are 125 members of the Kansas House.

In 2024, Republicans won 88 seats, and Democrats won 37 seats, in the Kansas House.

 

 

Republicans gained three seats in the Kansas House in 2024.

 

I created the graphs in this series using Flourish, a website that allows users to create compelling visual aids.

 

Since 2011, Republicans have held two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers of the Kansas Legislature.

The Republican supermajority allows Republican legislators to override a Democratic governor’s veto with only Republican votes. 

This grants Republican lawmakers the ability to pass laws without support from any elected Democrats.

 

Republicans have held a supermajority in the Kansas House since the 2010 election.

 

 

 

The following table lists the closest 2024 elections in the Kansas House.

The table is organized by the 2024 margin of victory in each district, with the closest races listed first.

The two races listed at the bottom of the table weren’t competitive in 2024, but they were competitive in 2022.

 

The names of elected incumbents are followed by “(i)”.

 

As you can see, four Kansas House races were decided by less than 200 votes.

 

The margin swung in favor of Republicans in 14 of the 15 elections shown in the table above.

The margin swung in favor of Democrats in only one district, District 48, in Johnson County, where incumbent Democrat Dan Osman increased his margin of victory, compared to 2022.

 

 

Republicans flipped control of Districts 14 and 15, in Johnson County, and District 102 in Reno County.

The 2024 Kansas House races in Districts 28 and 14, in Johnson County, and District 95 in Sedgwick County, were rematches between the same candidates who ran against each other in 2022.

 

 

The following paragraphs list the counties where the districts, in the table above, are located.

The districts will be listed in the order they appear in the table, with the most competitive districts listed first.

 

Districts 28, 49, 15, 14, 39, 30, and 48 are located entirely in Johnson County.

District 117 is located in Johnson and Douglas counties.

 

District 88 is located in Sedgwick and Butler counties.

District 102 is in Reno County.

District 67 is in Riley County.

District 41 is in Leavenworth County.

District 53 is in Shawnee County.

District 95 is in Sedgwick County.

District 33 is in Wyandotte County.

 

 

 

Eight out of 125, or 6.4%, of the races for the Kansas House were decided by less than 5%.

 

Five of the eight Kansas House races decided by less than 5% were in Johnson County.

That means 62.5% of Kansas House races decided by less than 5% were in Johnson County.

 

 

Eleven out of 125, or 8.8%, of the races for the Kansas House were decided by less than 6%.

 

Seven of the eleven Kansas House races decided by less than 6% were located in Johnson County.

That means 63.6% of Kansas House races decided by less than 6% were in Johnson County.

 

 

 

Our next table also contains information about the 2024 Kansas House elections, but it’s organized by the margin of victory in these districts in 2022.

The table displays the margin of victory in the most competitive Kansas House races in 2022.

As you can see, the most competitive districts in 2022 and 2024 were largely the same.

 

 

Once again, District 48 is the only election where the margin swung in Democrats favor.

Although, Democrat Linda Featherston, in Johnson County, went from winning by 8.5% in 2022 to running unopposed in 2024, so it doesn’t really make sense to calculate a margin swing for her district.

 

Districts 78 and 16 are located in Johnson County.

 

Members of the Kansas House will be up for reelection in 2026.

Democrats would need to flip five seats in the Kansas House to break the Republican supermajority in the chamber.

 

 

 

Kansas Senate

 

There are 40 members of the Kansas Senate.

In 2024, Republicans won 31 seats, and Democrats won 9 seats, in the Kansas Senate.

 

In 2024, Republicans gained two seats in the Kansas Senate.

 

Republicans have held a supermajority in the Kansas Senate since at least the 2004 elections.

 

 

 

The following table lists the closest 2024 Kansas Senate elections.

As you can see, there is a large jump between the races that were decided by less than 6% and the races that were decided by more than 14%.

 

This is the first election for the Kansas Senate that was held after redistricting, so I didn’t include results from the 2020 elections.

 

The closest election was in District 5, in Leavenworth and Wyandotte counties, where Republican Jeff Klemp defeated incumbent Democrat Jeff Pittman by only 31 votes, or 0.1%. 

 

 

In 2024, Republicans won all six Kansas Senate races decided by less than 10%.

All six Kansas Senate races decided by less than 10% were also decided by less than 6%.

Let’s examine those races, first.

 

 

Districts 10, 11, and 35 are located in Johnson County.

District 23 is located in Johnson and Miami counties. 

 

District 5 is located in Leavenworth and Wyandotte Counties.

District 22 is located in Riley County.

 

 

Six out of 40, or 15%, of the races for the Kansas Senate were decided by less than 10%.

Those same races were also decided by less than 6%.

Therefore, 15% of the races for Kansas Senate were decided by less than 6%.

 

Four of the six Kansas Senate races decided by less than 10% in 2024 were located entirely or partially in Johnson County.

That means 66.7% of Kansas Senate races decided by less than 10% were located entirely or partially in Johnson County.

 

 

 

Now, let’s examine the Kansas Senate elections that were decided by less than 15%.

 

Incumbent Mary Ware was the only Democrat who won an election for the Kansas Senate that was decided by less than 15%.

Ware was reelected by 14.2% in District 25, in Sedgwick County.

 

 

In 2020, Rick Kloos (R) defeated incumbent Democrat Anthony Hensley in Kansas Senate District 19 by 2.1%.

That was the closest election for the Kansas Senate in 2020.

 

For the 2024 election, Kloos was redistricted into Kansas Senate District 3.

In 2024, Kloos won reelection in District 3 by a landslide margin of 14.8%.

District 3 is located in Osage, Douglas, Franklin, and Shawnee counties.

 

 

 

Members of the Kansas Senate won’t be up for reelection until 2028.

But once they are, we will have a better sense of which districts will be competitive, than we did before the 2024 election.

Democrats would need to flip five seats in the Kansas Senate to break the Republican supermajority in the chamber.