Deep Red: The Kansas Big First

 

In the Kansas First Congressional District, former school teacher Kali Barnett (D) is running against former Kansas Lt. Gov. Tracey Mann (R). 

 

Mann served as Lt. Gov. to Gov. Jeff Colyer after former Gov. Sam Brownback was confirmed to be the US Ambassador for Religious Freedom. Tracey Mann is a pro-Trump Republican.

 

The Kansas first congressional district is heavily Republican. The "Big First" Congressional District is largely rural, but it also includes Salina and Manhattan.

 

 

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In 2014, Tim Huelskamp beat Alan LaPolice in the Republican primary by 9.9%.

 

Huelskamp (R) won the general election against James Sherow (D) by 36%.

 

 

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In 2016, Roger Marshall beat Tim Huelskamp in the Republican primary by 13%.

 

In the 2016 general election, LaPolice ran as an independent. Marshall (R) beat LaPolice (i) by 40%.

 

Kerry Burt, a Libertarian candidate, received 7.5% in the general election.

 

 

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In 2018, Marshall beat Nick Reinecker in the Republican primary by 57%.

 

That year, Alan LaPolice ran as a Democrat.

 

Marshall (R) beat LaPolice (D) in the general election by 36%.

 

 

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During the past 5 contested general elections in the Kansas first congressional district, the Republican candidate has won every time. The Republican candidate wins on average by 46%.

 

This makes Mann the heavy favorite to win, despite national headwinds against Republican candidates. 

 

FiveThirtyEight considers the race to be Solid Republican. Their model predicts Mann (R) will win by 35%.