Kansas sends 3 Reps and 1 Dem to the US House

Three Republicans and one Democrat will represent Kansas in the US House of Representatives. 

 

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Tracey Mann (R) beat Kali Barnett (D) in the Kansas First Congressional District, which includes western Kansas, Salina, and Manhattan.

Mann received 72% of the vote. Barnett received 28%.

Mann won by a margin of 44%, the largest margin of the four 2020 US House races in Kansas.

Mann won by a larger margin than predicted. FiveThirtyEight predicted Mann would win by 35%.

Mann’s margin is very close to the district’s average margin for Republicans in recent elections.

Prior to 2020, the Republican candidate won each of the 5 most-recent contested general elections in the Kansas First Congressional District. The Republican candidate won on average by 46%.

Yesterday, I published a blog post that examined the recent voting history of the Kansas First Congressional District. 

 

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Jake LaTurner (R) beat Michelle De La Isla (D) in the Kansas Second Congressional District. The district, which is located in eastern Kansas, includes Topeka and Lawrence.

LaTurner received 56% of the vote. De La Isla received 40%.

LaTurner won by a margin of 16%. 

LaTurner won by a larger margin than predicted. FiveThirtyEight predicted LaTurner would win by 10%.

LaTurner’s margin is close to the average Republican margin in the Kansas Second Congressional District.

Prior to 2020, the Republican candidate won each of the six most-recent elections in the district, by an average margin of 17%.

Yesterday, I published a blog post that examined the recent voting history of the Kansas Second Congressional District. 

 

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Incumbent Sharice Davids (D) beat her challenger Amanda Adkins (R) in the Kansas Third Congressional District, which includes Kansas City, Kansas, and Overland Park.   

Davids received 53% of the vote. Adkins received 44%.

Davids won by a margin of 9%. 

The race was the closest of the 2020 US House races in Kansas.

Davids won by a smaller margin than predicted. FiveThirtyEight predicted Davids would win reelection by a margin of 17%.

However, Davids did manage to outperform compared to her district’s recent voting history. 

During the six most recent elections in the Kansas Third Congressional District, prior to 2020, a Republican won 4 times and a Democrat won 2 times. During those elections, the district voted on average R+10%.

David’s 2020 margin of 9% is similar to the 10% margin she received in 2018, when she was first elected to the US House. 

Yesterday, I published a blog post that examined the recent voting history of the Kansas Third Congressional District.

 

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Incumbent Ron Estes (R) beat his challenger, Laura Lombard (D), to win reelection to the Kansas Fourth Congressional District, which includes Wichita.

Estes received 65% of the vote. Lombard received 35%. 

Estes won by a margin of 30%.

Estes won by a larger margin than predicted. FiveThirtyEight predicted Estes would win by 22%. 

Estes’s margin is consistent with his district’s recent voting history.

A Republican has won each of the past six elections in the Kansas Fourth Congressional District, by an average margin of 28%. 

This year, Estes won reelection by 30%, a higher margin than his initial election to the US House in 2018, when he won by 19%.

Yesterday, I published a blog post that examined the recent voting history of the Kansas Fourth Congressional District.